Mortgages are still in the negative growth zone

Last year was marked by a record volume of residential mortgages issued. But in 2024, experts predict a 22 percent drop in this indicator. The results of January confirm the forecast

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

Talking about the indicators with which the residential mortgage segment completed 2023, the speakers of the foresight session “Scenarios of preferential mortgages after July 1, 2024. Supply and Demand Trends”, held within the framework of the “Construction Week”, focused on several points. It was said, for example, that in all million-plus cities, the share of mortgages in residential transactions is very high: according to the assessment of the director of the platform Sergey Lobzhanidze, the lowest overall market level is in Chelyabinsk (64%), Novosibirsk (73%) and Moscow (77%), the highest is in Ufa (87%), Kazan (88%) and Krasnodar (90%). At the same time, the average encumbrance period in 2023 ranged from 23 years in Chelyabinsk and Perm to 27 years in Kazan and 28 years in Krasnodar.

We talked about a more than noticeable gap between the primary and secondary markets. According to Olga Filippova, senior project leader at Frank RG, head of the Mortgage project, if in the first quarter of 2021, on average, the share of mortgage transactions in the primary market was 74%, and 41% in the secondary market, then by the fourth quarter of 2023, the first indicator increased to 85%, and the second fell to 29%. That is, the gap between primary and secondary has become almost threefold.

They also said that by the end of last year, the volume of mortgage loans in Russia reached a historical maximum (7.9 trillion rubles, plus 65% compared to 2022). At the same time, according to Frank RG estimates, the role of state mortgage programs has become much more noticeable: if in 2020 they accounted for only 30% of the total volume of loans, then in 2023 they accounted for 58% with an overwhelming predominance of family mortgages and preferential mortgages for new buildings.

However, the mortgage forecast for 2024 is only 6.2 trillion rubles, minus 22% compared to 2023. And although January is considered to be an unremarkable month in the real estate market, nevertheless, the January results summed up by the United Credit Bureau (OKB)*, this forecast is supported.

Expert calculations take into account mortgage loans from banks that transmit data to the OKB, for which contracts have been signed and the bank has actually transferred funds to customer accounts this month (in some cases, the discrepancy between the date of signing the contract and crediting funds can be up to 180 days). So, according to January statistics, the number of new mortgage loans decreased by 66% in a month, and the volume decreased by 70%.

“In January, only 80.18 thousand mortgage loans worth 318.38 billion rubles were issued, in December last year — 239.12 thousand loans worth 1.07 trillion rubles. From a historic high of 4.46 million rubles in December 2023, the January average check for new mortgage loans fell to the level of mid—summer last year and amounted to 3.97 million rubles – minus 11% for the month. In annual terms, the volume of mortgage lending decreased by 12%, and the number of loans decreased by 18%,” the OKB shares details.

According to the bureau, the January top five regions in terms of mortgage lending included Moscow (5.82 thousand loans for 40.54 billion rubles), the Moscow Region (4.56 thousand loans for 24.82 billion rubles), St. Petersburg (3.52 thousand loans for 19.14 billion rubles), the Republic of Tatarstan (2.96 thousand loans for 12.39 billion rubles rubles) and Krasnodar Territory (2.8 thousand loans for 12.05 billion rubles). At the same time, in most regions of the top 30, in January 2024, there was a decrease in both the number and monetary volumes of mortgage lending. The largest decrease compared to December last year was recorded in Ugra, where the number of new mortgage loans decreased by 44%, and the volume decreased by 42%.

The average loan size increased in the first month of this year in most regions. “The largest increase is noted in the Omsk region (plus 23%). In Moscow, the Moscow and Leningrad regions, the average size of mortgages has not changed, in the Krasnodar Territory it has slightly decreased (minus 1%). The largest mortgage loans have traditionally been issued to residents of Moscow (6.97 million rubles), the Moscow Region and St. Petersburg (5.44 million rubles each). And the longest average term of mortgage lending is now observed in the Tyumen Region (293 months), Krasnodar Territory (286 months) and Stavropol Territory (281 months). Residents of both capitals were given mortgage loans with an average term of 277 months,” the OKB experts summarize.

The statistics of CYAN*, even if they are not completely similar to the statistics of the OKB, mostly coincide with it in terms of moods. According to CIAN analysts, 75.9 thousand mortgages were issued in Russia in January, which is 2.5 times less than in December: there are traditionally few transactions in the first month of the year due to holidays, and in 2024, the factor of tightening credit conditions was also added to this. “However, if compared with January 2023, the demand for mortgages is only 1.8% less, which is quite surprising, given that mortgage conditions were much better a year ago,” experts emphasize.

According to their estimates, compared with the end of last year, the number of loans decreased more strongly in the new building market (3.3 times versus two times in the secondary market). “The tightening of credit conditions (especially the increase in the initial payment) has hit the market quite hard. The secondary market is not so dependent on mortgages, in addition, the increase in rates occurred earlier than the change in conditions in the market of new buildings, and has already been reflected in previous months,” the CIAN explains.

A more dramatic decrease in the number of transactions in the primary market led to a change in the ratio between the segments. If at the end of 2023 the share of the secondary market in the total number of mortgage loans decreased against the background of rising mortgage rates, reaching 56% in December, then in January 2024 the ratio returned to a more familiar one: the secondary accounted for 66% of all loans issued.

“The reduction in the number of loans in January was expected, in February and March, demand and the number of mortgages should exceed January figures. The family mortgage program (which accounts for about 40-45% of all preferential loans) will allow the market to more comfortably go through a period of declining demand. It will not be possible to quickly increase the volume of disbursements under this program, it should be considered as a long—term factor in supporting demand,” the expert of the CIAN division is sure. Analytics” Elena Lapshina.

Separately, it should be noted that, according to the observations of the CIAN, the total amount of mortgage debt (in the primary and secondary markets) continues to increase. At the end of January 2024, it amounted to 18.2 trillion rubles, of which 4.9 trillion rubles in the primary market and 13.3 trillion rubles in the secondary market. According to experts, the growth is caused by an increase in debt in the secondary market: over the month, the indicator increased by 1.4% — the monthly increase in debt accelerated, in December it amounted to plus 0.3%. In the market of new buildings, on the contrary, the volume of debt decreased slightly (minus 0.9%).

business fm on telegram

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

The US Treasury denied the threat of sanctions against Raiffeisen Bank International

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

Which women live longer — single or married?

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

The idea of sending the military went to the “NATO masses”. George Bovt’s comment

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

Mars and Nestle Russia will make a discount on some animal feeds

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

The cost of bitcoin has updated its historical maximum

Ипотека — пока в зоне отрицательного роста

Ambulances and firefighters may be allowed to ram cars in yards

“In January, the share of arrears in the total amount of debt did not decrease or did not remain at the same level as it was in previous months, but increased slightly — by 0.1 percentage points both in new buildings and in the secondary market. However, despite the increase in “bad” debts, overdue loans in the primary market account for only 0.12% of the total volume, in the secondary market — 0.43%. By the end of January, the volume of overdue debt in the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to 62.6 billion rubles, of which 5.9 billion in the primary market and 56.7 billion in the secondary market,” CIAN analysts note.


Leave a Reply

We use cookies to give you the best possible experience on our site. By clicking "Accept", you agree to our use of cookies.