Decrease in the volume of mortgage loans in Russia may reach its maximum since 2015, according to experts of the Expert RA rating agency, whose words are quoted by Forbes. According to forecasts, the volume of disbursements may fall by 30% from 7.8 trillion to 5.4 trillion rubles.
It is clarified that the tightening of the terms of preferential mortgage programs and the completion of mass preferential mortgages for new buildings in July will contribute to the decrease. Interest in market mortgages will begin to revive only at rates below 13%.
Konstantin Aprelev, Vice President of the Guild of Realtors of Russia, generally agrees with such forecasts. In an interview with the Free Press, he said that in this matter it is necessary to “divide the markets” — the secondary and the primary, which lives its own life, and where a decrease in transaction volumes is also present, despite the fact that mortgage rates in the primary market remained the same — 8%. Most likely, it will not be touched until July 1.
“Nevertheless, there is a correction of up to 30% in sales. And in the secondary market, in my opinion, the decrease may be more than double in most regions. Well, just under 18%, few people are ready to purchase real estate,” the source explained.
Demand in the primary market will also decrease. And there are three main reasons for this. The first is a significant increase in prices for new buildings, and not always justified. The second is the tightening by banks of the terms of the programs and the assessment of the borrower’s creditworthiness — an increase in the down payment to 20% or more, as well as blocking the ability to take out a consumer loan in order to make this down payment.
“The third reason is that the primary and secondary markets are two communicating vessels. If sales volumes in the secondary market decrease, then there is no capital flow from these sales to the primary one,” Aprelev noted.
According to him, now developers are likely to shake up the situation a little, implying that the preferential mortgage program will end on July 1. However, this still will not warm up the market enough to repeat the same sales volume that was in the first six months of 2023, respectively, a drop in sales is inevitable, the expert added.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance supported the completion of all preferential mortgage programs, except for family ones, within the previously designated time frame.
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