Ruinous mortgage

Разорительная ипотека

Photo: Marina Lystseva/TASS

Mortgage lenders give more than half of their salaries to banks in the form of annuity payments, and in some regions this share is even higher. Moreover, official salary figures were taken into account, which are far from reality. Given the downward trend in real disposable incomes of the population, it is logical to assume that at some point the mortgage market may collapse due to massive non-payments.

The National Credit Ratings Agency (NCR) calculated what percentage of their income the average Russian mortgage lender gives to the bank. For the calculation, we took Rosstat data on the nominal (this is a very important point!) salary for August and information on loans issued in September 2022.

It turned out unexpectedly much. The average Russian “Rosstat” salary is declared at 59.91 thousand rubles, this figure is even a sin to discuss. The average mortgage payment in the Russian Federation is similar to the truth — 26.8 thousand rubles. Thus, an annuity payment eats up 45% of income.

Let’s see how it is abroad.

“The average net salary in Germany is now at the level of 2,700 euros per month, a well-known figure. The mortgage rate is on average about 2% per annum, although last year it was possible to take out a loan almost twice as cheap. I recently saw a figure, or rather, I heard on the radio in an economic program — a thousand and a little euros is now the average monthly mortgage payment in Germany. A lot, it was much better,” says one of our former compatriots.

We recalculate, we get 37% of the income. Yes, it’s decent. Especially when compared with America, where on average 20-25% of income is spent on these loans. But in any case, less than in Of Russia.

Especially if we take into account the real salary level, which is estimated on average in the Russian Federation at 20-25 thousand rubles. If we start from them, it turns out that more is spent on mortgages than people earn. And in a sense, it’s almost like that.

The above calculation took into account only the income of the recipient of the loan, and not the entire household as a whole. But even so, from 40-50 thousand rubles, payments will amount to 55-70%!

Here is a typical story. Chernozemye, the regional center, the father-mother-son family take out a mortgage. Because living with my parents in a two-room “Khrushchev” is already completely unbearable. Everyone sits down on potatoes and pasta together, there is not enough money for some other products. But you also need to dress in something…

Actually, 60% and more also appear in the NKR study. No conclusions are being drawn. But in vain. The situation as a whole is very alarming and promises the country major troubles.

Statistics on Russian mortgages in general are somewhat strange, to say the least. First of all, for some reason, the number of these borrowers is not exactly known, only about 10 million people. The range of estimates is quite large — from 8-9 million to 12-13 million. Why is that? There is no answer.

Further. At the beginning of 2022, the total debt on loans for the purchase of real estate amounted to 11.9 trillion. rubles, data from the Central Bank. By the end of October, the mortgage portfolio of banks had grown to 13.3 trillion. rubles’. Really?

“Both my colleagues and I have not seen mortgagees since the beginning of April, when most bank customers were running out of approved loans. Then they frantically tried to buy something, but in the face of a sharp rise in the dollar, no one was selling anything. And then real estate prices went down, slowly at first, and then faster and faster, and those who were going to buy something completely disappeared. It’s understandable — buying anything in a falling market, and even in debt, is just stupid,” says private realtor Tatyana Ivanova.

So, where did these one and a half trillion rubles come from is completely unclear. Let’s say they bought something in the spring, and in January-February too – at the beginning of May there were 12.4 trillion contracts. rubles’. And then? Unclear…

And the share of “bad” loans — for which there is a mortgage — is also somehow all crafty. It seems to be falling, and in August of this year it fell to 5.9% of the total credit debt of Russians. At the same time, debts under mortgage agreements a month earlier, that is, in July 2022, exceeded all other loans in total for the first time. Again, it is strange, especially considering that no one is taking a mortgage now, and consumer loans, on the contrary, are popular.

Or like this. In “Cyanogen.Analysts” calculated — based on official figures — that over the past three years in the Kaliningrad region, mortgage arrears have increased by 321%, in Crimea — by 50%, in Sevastopol — by 150%. But this is the whole thing. In the same place, in the Crimean “federal city”, over the same three years, the volume of overdue debts on the “primary” increased by 200%.

In the Magadan region, too, for new houses in mortgages — by 300%, in the Ivanovo region — by 329%, in Kalmykia — by 500%. On average, the “primary” accounts for 24% of the total volume of mortgage debt in the market.

“Such significant differences in the mortgage portfolio in terms of debt levels, market segments, and the dynamics of indicators indicate the heterogeneous economic development of the regions. Unified measures to support the construction industry do not have a comparable effect for different subjects. Preferential mortgages with low development activity are ineffective for solving the housing issue, and a limited number of lenders and high rates in the absence of competition increase the share of “delinquency”,” explains the head of Cian.Analysts” Alexey Popov.

It creates a bad impression that real figures fall into the “drawn” statistics either by accident or by “fuchs”. Which, if they are made public in full, will scare everyone.

In general, it seems like “everything is fine, beautiful Marchioness.” But there are nuances. A number of financiers have a list of disadvantaged regions where they try not to give mortgages by hook or by crook. Including the “preferential” one. Because the risks are too great. And this list strangely coincides with an equally unofficial list of “depressed” areas, where average salaries are several times lower than those of Rosstat. However, they still somehow manage to take out a mortgage there.

But there is no need to talk about any reduction in mortgage defaults. Let’s add to the number of negative factors an increase in utility tariffs by 10% at once. Given that families paying off housing loans often literally count pennies, many will be severely affected by this arbitrariness of the authorities. And they will choose either food for the children or an annuity payment. The choice is obvious.

Plus “circumstantial evidence.” For example, the volume of mortgage portfolio trading — this is when one bank transfers the rights of claim under a loan agreement to another bank at a discount in exchange for “money now” — has fallen significantly. And according to a number of experts, this trade has now completely stopped — there are no bad ones.

Why? Yes, because no one needs these assets! It’s not assets anymore. If “on your fingers”: for example, a person took out a mortgage loan of 8 million rubles for 20 years, reported another 2 million rubles of his own and bought an apartment. For several years, he paid another 3 million rubles, but suddenly stopped paying. He can’t do it anymore. What is the bank left with?

“The under-sale of new buildings as of December reached 66% – we have never had such an indicator. All built facilities pull developers down with a stone, because from the moment the house is put into operation, taxes must be paid for it, maintenance of premises and so on. Developers are probably going through the worst of times. There was hope for various mortgage programs that were lobbied, but it did not materialize. This has only delayed the fall in prices that have been inflated in recent years. Already, there is a significant reduction in the cost of specific “secondary” transactions,” says Shamil Kochekaev, director of the head office of BEST—Real Estate.

That is, you can sell a loan apartment at best for half the cost. In our case, for 5 million rubles. Plus 3 million rubles of previous payments — the bank is “in zeros”. That is, in specific losses: money has been idling for several years.

But the above scenario is rather positive, there are a lot of loans with a down payment of 10%, and there are enough loans with zero in general. What should I do here?

Plus social problems. The above-mentioned 9-13 million borrowers are 9-13 million households, that is, about 30 million people. It’s so easy for all of them, if there is a wave of mortgage defaults, you can’t throw them out of the apartments. In other words, everything is complicated. Therefore, the statistics are “adjusted”…


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