Photo: Alexey Belkin/Business Online/Global Look Press
There will be no cheap mortgages anymore — for sure in the next couple of years, but there is no point in making plans for a longer period nowadays. Moreover, for those who already have loans, and not only for the purchase of real estate, at a rate of less than 10.66% per annum, they can rise in price at once to about this level. It is a bit premature to talk about this yet, but a number of categories of Russian citizens have already begun to “take on a pencil.”
“If in February 2024 the Central Bank predicted that by the end of the year the average key rate would be 13.5−15.5% per annum, and in 2025 it would drop to 8-10%, now, according to the April forecast, in 2024 the “key” will remain at the level of 15-16%, and in 2025 it will decrease only to 10-12%.
Given that rates of no more than 12% per annum are more or less acceptable for mortgagees, which are possible with a key one below 10%, the Central Bank, in fact, offers to say goodbye to hopes for an affordable mortgage in the foreseeable future. Perhaps the mortgage will return to us in 2026, when the key rate, according to the expectations of the Central Bank, will drop to 6-7%. But this is not accurate.
And in any case, the real estate market will have to exist without a cheap mortgage for at least another year and a half. At first glance, only secondary, because the primary has preferential programs, the rates for which do not depend on the policy of the Central Bank.
The problem is that with a key rate of 16%, a preferential mortgage is too expensive for the treasury, so the authorities have set a course to refuse to subsidize rates or, in any case, to significantly tighten the conditions for obtaining them,” Oleg Repchenko, head of the Real Estate Market Indicators Analytical center (IRN), writes in his research.
At the moment, the “market” mortgage is declared from 18% per annum, de facto – from 20% and above. It is curious that all banks and other organizations have removed the so-called “mortgage calculators” from their websites, now it is proposed to leave your phone number in order for the loan program to be calculated for you. Individually. That’s it, standardization is gone and, apparently, will not return.
More or less standard now is only an initial payment, without which they will not even talk to you — from 30% of the value of the property. And in some cases, and there are more and more of them — from 50%. Moreover, it is precisely that “from”, loan applicants who have exactly this minimum required amount on their hands are most often rejected.
The preferential mortgage is really dead. But the problem is not at all in the large expenditures of the state, the head of the IRN is mistaken here.
The state, indeed, has to give more, but that’s not the point. Banks assume the risks that the market will collapse and collateral real estate will “turn into a pumpkin”.
And the authorities — they only pay credit institutions a certain difference between market and “preferential” rates, they do not risk anything. So it is not the state that closes the “preferential” mortgage, but the business — it is dangerous, however!
However, many citizens who have valid “preferential” mortgage agreements now also feel extremely uncomfortable.
The fact is that since 2024, the personal income tax exemption for material benefits from saving on interest on loans with a rate less than 2/3 of the refinancing rate is no longer valid. Didn’t you know? And the authorities did not advertise this — the Federal Tax Service (FTS) “delighted” everyone with this only in mid-February 2024.
“On your fingers”: let’s say you have a preferential mortgage at 6% per annum, 2/3 of the current rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is 10.66% per annum. Your “income” is 4.66% per annum, please pay a tax of 35% from it. That is, 6% per annum turns into about 8% per annum, or even more — then how the publicans will count… The above method is far from the only one.
In the above-mentioned explanation of the Federal Tax Service, it is written that you can not pay only if the tax deduction is extinguished on account of these charges. That is, this deduction is “burning out” for you, and for nothing. On account of the “preferential” mortgage.
It seems that earlier there was a letter from the Tax Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated November 3, 2020 No. 03-04-05/95889 “On the taxation of personal income tax in the form of material benefits from saving on interest for using borrowed (credit) funds”, which explains some points. However, it is extremely ambiguous and indistinct — you can interpret it either way.
For example, it means that “the relevant borrowed (credit) funds were received by the taxpayer from an organization or individual entrepreneur who are recognized as an interdependent person of the taxpayer or with whom the taxpayer has an employment relationship.” That is, they gave a profitable loan at work — pay.
Or like this — “such savings are actually material assistance or a form of counter-fulfillment by an organization or individual entrepreneur of an obligation to the taxpayer, including payment (remuneration) for goods supplied by the taxpayer (work performed, services rendered).” This can generally be interpreted as you like. The state gave you a “preferential” loan, so it’s not just like that. Pay up.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance did not mention anything in the February letter from the Federal Tax Service, apparently, it has already lost its force. However, this is nothing more than an explanation written by a certain deputy director of the department, Viktor Sashichev. He could have been mistaken…
“I have a valid mortgage agreement, “preferential”. The bank has already rewritten all of us like this, back in the winter, but so far no one is being forced to pay anything. They say that the authorities solve the problem — they will cover it up. If they can… and, apparently, not all of them. In general, it is very alarming,” says Dmitry, an IT specialist at a very large credit institution.
They may be covered, but there are millions of “beneficiaries” and those who simply took out a “market” mortgage in 2019-2020 at 7-8% per annum, then there was such an opportunity. If all those with mortgages, as well as all other loans, including car loans, start to pinch — and these are millions of people! — then everything will fall apart. The real estate market is first and foremost.
In general, everything is not good there anymore. So far, there is no frankly “emergency” analytics, but negative trends, alas, have to be stated. So as not to give out a completely brazen lie. Thus, according to the SRG consulting company, in April, a decrease in prices for secondary housing was recorded in 14 Russian cities, whereas in March — in only five. The figures for falling prices are also funny, but no one pays attention to them. Nevertheless, the trend is obvious. And banks are very worried about this.
And if the Federal Tax Service also includes a new norm, then it will definitely not seem to anyone. Apparently, that’s why it doesn’t turn on. But for some reason, the February “reminder” came out, because everything is probably done for a reason.
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