“The house.The Russian Federation” predicted a decrease in mortgage issuance to the level of 2022

The volume of issuance accumulated in the first half of the year will not fall below the figures of two years ago at the end of the year, according to Dom.RF

The issuance of mortgage loans by the end of 2024 will decrease by 35% in number compared to 2023 and by 40% in volume, Dom.RF predicted (the study is in the editorial office). However, the potential accumulated in the first half of the year will not go beyond the indicators of 2022, analysts predict.

In 2022, 1.3 million mortgage loans were issued, and the volume of issuance amounted to 4.8 trillion rubles, according to the study. By the end of 2024, about 1.3–1.4 million mortgage loans worth about 5 trillion rubles will be issued, predicted the head of the analytical center “Dom.Russian Federation” Mikhail Goldberg. Of these, 762 thousand mortgage loans worth 3.2 trillion rubles have already been issued in seven months of 2024, the expert said. In terms of quantity, this is 22% less than in the same period last year, and in terms of volume — 12% less.

To the “House.The Russian Federation” recalls that the main decrease in issuance began in July, with the completion of the state program for new buildings at 8% and the suspension of family mortgages, followed by a change in its terms. Also, during this period, an IT mortgage was not issued due to the exhaustion of limits. In addition, at the end of the month, banks actively increased mortgage rates under market programs against the background of an increase in the key rate.

As a result, in July, the 20 largest mortgage banks reduced the issuance of loans by 55% compared to June in both quantity and volume (up to 81.4 thousand loans worth 356 billion rubles), according to the Dom.RF study. Seven of the ten largest banks have reduced the issuance of loans by one and a half times. Only the Rosselkhoznadzor has grown it, it is indicated in the materials.