Mortgage overpayment for secondary housing in Moscow has almost doubled in a year

Meanwhile, the cost per square meter has increased by only 7%. Market experts expect some reduction in market rates before the end of the year, the level of which affected the amount of overpayment

The amount of overpayment on a mortgage loan issued for the purchase of a typical two-room apartment in the capital practically doubled from April 2023 to April 2024 against the background of rising rates, follows from the review provided by RBC-Real Estate “CIAN.Analysts”.

With a ten-year loan term, the amount of overpayment, according to analysts, in 2024 is 17.3 million rubles, with a 20-year term — 40.4 million rubles. A year ago, the figures were 9.7 million and 21.9 million rubles, respectively. The growth of indicators, thus, amounted to about 1.8 times.

House prices have increased much less significantly over the same period, analysts emphasize. So, the average cost of a secondary “square” in Moscow for the year, April to April, increased by 7%, calculated in CIAN (the figure is confirmed by the real estate company Inkom-Real Estate).

As they thought

These offers are presented in the CIAN database (median indicators) without taking into account the premium and elite segments. When calculating the loan parameters, market rates of 11.5% per annum (April 2023) and 17.9% (April 2024) were taken. The down payment was estimated at 20% as the most appropriate for banks’ expectations for loan approval. Overpayment refers to the difference between the value of the property and the borrower’s actual payments for the entire loan period (interest and related expenses).

Data: “CYANOGEN.Analytics”

The figures are confirmed by other market participants. According to the analysts of the portal “World of Apartments”, the amount of overpayment increased by about 1.9 times over the year. Inkom-Real Estate also talks about the increase in mortgage loan servicing costs and notes that in order to obtain approval for a secondary mortgage, a larger initial payment is now needed than the minimum 10% corresponding to market programs. “The possibilities and desires for the initial payment of clients have remained the same — at the level of the minimum contribution of 10-15%, but in 2024 the amount of the contribution for obtaining bank approval has become higher — it is mainly 20%,” said Elena Sannikova, mortgage lending consultant at Inkom—Real Estate.

Domclick analysts also note an increase in the median down payment on a mortgage in the secondary housing market. The national average for the year in Sberbank’s transactions increased by 34.5% (to 1.6 million rubles), in Moscow — by 44.8% (to 7.5 million rubles). The demand for secondary housing can be supported by targeted and regional preferential programs, Domklik believes, pointing out that in some regions — where there is no or almost no multi—apartment construction – this also shifts the focus of consumer attention towards the secondary market and residential housing.

Demand for second homes may increase in 2024

In the medium term, a reduction in the number of preferential programs in new buildings will lead to a shift in demand for secondary, the head of CIAN believes.Analysts” Alexey Popov. “Mortgages will become almost equally inaccessible for some time, while slightly more attractive prices and more opportunities to bargain will remain on the secondary market,” the expert explains.

After July 1, some influx of demand from the primary market may come to the secondary segment, where preferential mortgages at 8% will end. Because the prices on the secondary market are 10% lower,” says Pavel Lutsenko, General Director of the federal portal “World of Apartments”. “If a year ago a Moscow apartment on the secondary market could be sold in a month, now it is three months. The owners did not make concessions then, now they can throw off 3-7% of the price if the sale is urgent,” the expert adds. Domclick also confirms that discounts on the secondary market are spreading more widely. In Savings Bank mortgage transactions, the average discount rate from the seller is about 2%.

Inkom-Real Estate expects that mortgage conditions may soften somewhat by the end of the year. “We forecast a decrease in the key rate, respectively, and the market mortgage rate, but not by more than 2-3 percentage points,” comments Elena Sannikova. “For a long period, it is worth keeping in mind the possibility of refinancing the loan in the event of a reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate,” says Alexey Popov.

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