It is planned to open only 130 thousand square meters this year, which is still much more than in 2023. At that time, only three shopping malls were opened in Moscow — the minimum number in ten years
The volume of commissioning of shopping centers, according to analysts at IBC Real Estate, turned out to be zero for the first time since 2018. At the same time, there are more than 750 thousand square meters of retail space in the capital at the construction stage. It is planned to open only 130 thousand square meters this year, but this is 136% higher than in 2023. At that time, only three shopping malls were opened in Moscow — the minimum number in ten years.
Artem Tsogoev, a member of the Board of Directors of the SimpleEstate investment platform, talks about what these figures mean within the commercial real estate market:
Artem Tsogoev, member of the Board of Directors of SimpleEstate, “The indicators are related to the fact that the shopping center sector has not yet recovered from the pandemic and from the departure of foreign retailers. The situation began to take shape at the beginning of 2020, when the pandemic began, and now it can be stated that the attendance of shopping centers cannot return to the indicators of 2019. This is the reality that is on the market. Retail real estate developers look at these indicators and make decisions about whether or not to build shopping malls. Developers tend to build those projects that are in demand from buyers, tenants, and so on. Most of the money is invested in small formats. If we are talking about alternative investment models, then small developers are looking towards multifunctional complexes, where the trading component is only part of the object. These are office projects, possibly apartments, hotels, housing, if the site and its characteristics allow it.”
Last year, the retail real estate market in the capital really faced the problem of a high proportion of vacant space, which amounted to more than 8%, the NF Group agency reported. But by the end of 2023, only 6.5% of them remained vacant, mainly due to Russian retailers who began to actively occupy the space.
Olga Antonova, Director of Commercial Real Estate at Aeroplane Group of Companies, talks about what trends are observed in the context of renting retail space:
Olga Antonova, Director of Commercial Real Estate at the Aeroplane Group of Companies, “The market has not predicted a large development in the shopping center segment for a long time, this is due to the economic indicators of such facilities. Payback periods have increased significantly recently due to the fact that rates have increased, rentals have been trending down in recent years, so there has been no active development on the market. At the same time, there has been a definite turnaround in one of the market segments, I’m talking about “district stores” and local shopping centers. Developers have been active here because there is a trend towards decentralization, that people are starting to live in these new conditions of a 15-minute city, and shopping malls began to appear as projects in places where residential clusters cluster. And basically, this volume of construction is local or regional small shopping centers close to the area where people live. There is activity here, this is due to the fact that every developer of residential areas strives to create a rich infrastructure for their residents, increasing the value of the product.”
According to experts, the current trends do not yet allow us to talk about the occupancy rate of shopping centers even by 90%. According to preliminary estimates, it will remain at 85-88%.
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The capital’s situation with the shopping center also highlights last year’s all-Russian record, when no shopping centers opened in the country in the first quarter.
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