This is mainly due to the imminent completion of the mortgage with state support and possible changes in the parameters of the family mortgage. Both programs are in high demand in the segments of new buildings and residential buildings
Mortgage demand in May 2024 turned out to be significantly more active than in April, according to a study by Domclick analysts provided to the editorial office by the press service of Sberbank. The growth was largely shown by the primary market segment, analysts emphasize.
In total, in May, Sberbank issued 77.1 thousand mortgages for 286.9 billion rubles — both figures have become record since the beginning of the year. By April, their growth was 34 and 48%, respectively. “Indicators have increased in all major real estate markets (new buildings, ready—made housing, individual housing construction), while the structure of loans has changed significantly,” Domklik emphasizes.
The growth in the segment of new buildings was especially noticeable: mortgage issuance here amounted to 30.4 thousand loans. This is twice as much as in April, and 4.4 times more than the March results, the materials explain. The share of the primary market in Sberbank’s total issuance increased by 12.2 percentage points over the month and reached 39.4%. This figure is close to the historically record level of 39.7%, which was recorded in December 2023. Such a change in the demand structure in Domclick is associated with the imminent completion of the mortgage program with state support — its validity period is limited to July 1. Expectations about changes in the family mortgage program also affected demand, the study indicates.
The share of the primary market has grown in all regions—leaders in mortgage demand, Domklik notes. The largest increase was recorded in the Voronezh Region (+18.5 percentage points), the Rostov Region (+17.5 percentage points) and the Republic of Tatarstan (+16.1 percentage points). In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the indicator also increased significantly – by 15.1 percentage points and 12.6 percentage points, respectively.
“For the second month in a row, Moscow has been leading among the regions in terms of the share of the primary market in the total number of loans issued. If in April the figure exceeded 47%, then in May it already amounted to 62.5%. We explain such a high growth rate in the capital by the imminent completion of the State support program and the change in the conditions of the “Family Mortgage,” commented Alexey Leipi, Director of the Domklik division of Sberbank.
The distribution of mortgages by type of loans for the top 10 regions by the number of loans in May 2024 (data from Sberbank). The “rest” includes non-targeted loans secured by real estate, refinancing, and military mortgages. The data is sorted by the share of transactions for the purchase of primary real estate in the total number of issues.
Domklick also draws attention to the fact that Moscow is among the regions where the median monthly payment for the purchase of new buildings is noticeably lower than for transactions with secondary housing — the gap is 26.3%. On average, in million-plus cities, this difference does not exceed 20%, and in half of the largest constituent entities of the Russian Federation, mortgage payments on the secondary market are more profitable than payments on the market of new buildings, the study indicates.
How have the issues changed in the secondary housing market and in the residential housing segment
The total issue of “Sber” in the secondary market by the end of May also significantly exceeded the April figures. A total of 31.9 thousand loans were issued, which is 11.3% more than in the previous month. At the same time, the issuance in the segment lags far behind last year’s figure — on average, it was 68 thousand mortgages per month. The share of the secondary segment lost 8.5 percentage points over the month and amounted to 41.4%. These results are mainly explained by the flow of demand to the primary market and high mortgage rates for secondary housing.
“The largest share of loans issued is recorded in the subjects of the Russian Federation with an underdeveloped market for new buildings — the Chechen Republic (97.7%), the Magadan Region (66.7%), the Komi Republic (62.9%),” the study notes. “High rates are also observed in regions where mortgage payments on the secondary market are much more profitable than on the primary market — in particular, in the Arkhangelsk region (63.9%).”
In the residential housing segment, demand for loans increased by 14% by April, a total of 13.3 thousand mortgages were issued. Domclick notes that the number of transactions in the segment has been above 10 thousand for the third month in a row — this is due to a combination of a number of factors, the main of which are seasonality and upcoming changes in government support programs. The share of loans under the “State Support” and “Family mortgage” programs in the residential housing segment has not fallen below 90% since September 2023, the materials emphasize. By the end of May, the figure was 94.4%.
“Although the share of loans for individual housing construction decreased to 17.3% (minus 3 percentage points), it still remains higher than in 2023, when the maximum value reached 11.6%,” analysts point out. The Republics of Tyva (44.7%), Adygea (37.4%) and Khakassia (32.4%) became the leaders in the share of housing and communal services in the total issuance structure at the end of the month.
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