The share of the primary market has decreased to the lowest in the history of statistics, the share of housing and communal services, on the contrary, has increased to a new record
In February 2024, the number of mortgage transactions with new buildings decreased by 31.4% by January, while in the secondary segment there was an increase of 26%, in the residential housing sector — by 34.1%, follows from the review of Domklik analysts provided by the press service of Sberbank.
Analysts attribute a significant reduction in mortgage demand for new buildings to tougher conditions for borrowers, as well as restrictions on preferential programs. The share of the latter in the initial issuance in February was, according to Domclick estimates, 93.8%.
In just a month, 7.4 thousand mortgages were issued for new buildings. “At the same time, the share of new buildings in the structure of mortgages issued has reached the lowest value in the entire history of observations (14.8%),” the review emphasizes. Such changes are primarily due to the correction of a number of parameters for preferential programs:
As a result, mortgage demand has been redistributed — the share of the secondary market has grown to 62.8%. “This is the highest figure since August 2023, when the key rate increased,” Domclick explains. — The share of the secondary market increased the most in Vologda (+19.1 percentage points since January), Volgograd (+17.2 percentage points) and Penza (+16.2 percentage points) regions.” In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the indicator increased by 13 percentage points and 11 percentage points, respectively.
The maximum share of the primary market in the total issue of “Savings Bank” among the regions of the top 10 in mortgage demand was noted in the Rostov region and Moscow – 24% each. The decrease in the Rostov region amounted to 6 percentage points by January, in the capital — 15%.
Distribution of mortgages by type of loans for the top 10 regions by the number of loans in February 2024: purchase of primary and secondary housing, individual construction. The “rest” includes non-targeted loans secured by real estate, refinancing, and military mortgages. The data is sorted by the share of transactions for the purchase of primary real estate in the total number of issues
Despite the growth in market share, the demand for second-home mortgages has also decreased. Issuance amounted to 31.6 thousand loans, which is less than the minimum figure for 2023, which was noted in January (38.1 thousand). Analysts attribute this to high rates on market programs against the background of a high Central Bank key rate (16%). In the future, Domclick does not expect demand growth in this market segment — it will be restrained, among other things, by the introduction of risk factor allowances by the Central Bank.
The share of the individual housing construction segment has grown to a record level of 19.3%, the review emphasizes. The leaders in this indicator among the regions were the republics of Tyva (54.1%), Sakha (Yakutia) (46.3%) and Khakassia (38%).
“We believe that the demand for private homes will only continue to grow in the coming year. As key factors that contribute to accelerating the development of this market, we can highlight, firstly, the emergence of new products for buyers, which in the future will reduce the riskiness of purchasing this type of real estate, – says Alexey Leipi, director of the Domklik division of Sberbank. “In addition, new laws are being actively discussed, in particular the draft law on escrow accounts, tax benefits for developers, simplification of the procedure for obtaining permits.”
According to a recent report by analysts at the National Bureau of Credit Histories, in 2024, the average recommended income required to service a mortgage loan in Russia exceeded 100,000 rubles. The indicator increased by 11% over the year.
English 
Russian 
German 
Polish