Denial — acceptance — demand. How did the market of new buildings in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region survive the first quarter with new preferential mortgage terms

Отрицание — принятие — спрос. Как рынок новостроек Петербурга и Ленобласти пережил первый квартал с новыми условиями льготной ипотеки

Photo: Sergey Mikhaylichenko/

    In the first quarter of 2024, home buyers and developers felt the harsh actions of the Central Bank, which led to a decrease in the share of mortgages to 70% and a drop in demand for new buildings by 43% compared to the last quarter of last year. But if the Ministry of Finance’s dreams of reducing the share of preferential programs to 25% are destined to come true, then not in the near future. In the second quarter, everyone is waiting for mass demand from those who want to “jump into the last car” of a mortgage with state support, and the family mortgage should be extended until 2030.

    Participants of the Fontanka round table talked about how the housing market survived the first quarter, what conditions for family mortgages and new targeted programs banks and developers are waiting for, as well as about the Russian folk tradition of quickly doing everything at the last moment.

    Banks are talking about the growth of mortgage lending in St. Petersburg following the results of the first quarter of 2024.

    — In just three months of 2024, 5.3 thousand mortgage loans worth 24.7 billion rubles were issued in the Northern Capital, — said Alexey Ushenin, managing director of Sberbank’s St. Petersburg branch. — Mortgages under preferential programs with state support accounted for about half of loans in quantitative terms and 65% in monetary terms.

    At the same time, according to Ushenin, the regulator’s decisions led to a change in the distribution of loans between the primary and secondary markets:

    — This is especially evident in the number of mortgages issued in Savings in the first quarter, where the demand for secondary housing is almost twice as high. The share of secondary loans in the total number of loans was 66% against 34% in the primary market. In monetary terms, the difference is not so significant — 54% and 46%, respectively.

    — The market experienced enormous stress when, since the beginning of the year, banks that closed 80% of the mortgage lending market introduced commission fees, — continued Svetlana Denisova, Head of Sales Department at BFA-Development CJSC. — Of course, the flows were redirected to those banks that did not introduce a commission, but their capacities were not designed for such a volume. Many simply couldn’t cope physically: there were not enough specialists, it was impossible to sign up for a deal.

    In addition, new conditions were put forward, in particular on concessions. Banks’ demands on borrowers have increased, and the number of refusals has increased.

    Against the background of these events, which took place simultaneously with the tightening of lending parameters under preferential programs, the desire and opportunities to buy apartments decreased in relation to the fourth quarter of 2023, the expert noted. According to various estimates, demand in St. Petersburg decreased by 40-43% compared to the record fourth quarter, and in Moscow by 45%.

    On the positive side, she noted that, nevertheless, the number of transactions registered by the Federal Register is growing from month to month, except for January, where last year’s ones fall.

    — Of course, the developers were disappointed when the banks started to introduce commissions. But we must understand that the profitability of state programs has been reduced to a minimum, — explains Svetlana Denisova. — And the imprudent behavior of the regulator in recent years has led to the fact that resources have been exhausted, concessional loans have been issued several times in one hand. However, it is wrong to go to the other extreme, giving the market such a shock.

    Maxim Zhabin, Deputy General Director of LenRusStroy Group, believes that preferential mortgage programs launched during the pandemic should have been discontinued immediately after its completion. The extension of the subsidized mortgage in the current conditions violates market mechanisms and hinders the natural evolution of the real estate market.

    — The real estate market must function in accordance with the laws of the market, — he stressed. — If the government had abolished preferential mortgages earlier, the market would have gradually adapted to the new realities. Perhaps the volume of construction and housing affordability would decrease, but this would be regulated by market factors, and buyers would be more careful in choosing mortgage programs.

    Svetlana Denisova added: if in the III–IV quarters of 2024 92-96% of transactions in the primary market were made with mortgages, then in the first quarter the share decreased to 60-65% for different developers. Installments have become more widely practiced — they are given in anticipation of a reduction in the key rate, so that at the end of construction it is possible to switch to a mortgage at more humane interest rates than now.

    — The year started somewhat chaotically: rapidly changing conditions could not but affect demand, but by the end of the first quarter the situation leveled off, — said Olga Kuznetsova,Deputy General Director of the Glavstroy Real Estate Agency. — The first months showed that people did not give up mortgages. In our facilities, the share of using this tool has not significantly decreased — about 90% of transactions were made using state programs.

    According to Maria Orlova, commercial director of A101 Group of Companies in St. Petersburg, the share of mortgages in the St. Petersburg agglomeration fluctuated greatly in the first quarter: from January 83%, it fell to 60% in February, and in March it rose to 70%.

    — In any case, this is lower than it was in 2023, — Orlova complained. — The stop factors that were very strongly felt in the first quarter include stricter scoring: even very decent-looking borrowers could not get a loan, including the first mortgage. But what we saw in March allows us to hope for a thaw and relaxation in the near future.

    She also mentioned the initial payment as one of the difficulties: about a quarter of potential buyers have problems accumulating it.

    — We can identify two main trends: a general decrease in the share of mortgage transactions and an increase in sales using our own funds. The reasons, first of all, were the change in the conditions for issuing preferential mortgages, as well as the tightening of borrowers’ approval by banks. It is also worth noting a significant increase in the volume of mortgage issuance under the program for IT specialists, which led to an early selection of limits and the formation of deferred demand. Now new volumes have been allocated — accordingly, we are waiting for the resumption of loans under this program,” commented Elizaveta Nikolaeva, head of the Mortgage and Financial Instruments Department at GloraX.

    — In the total structure of mortgage transactions of our company in the first quarter, the share of mortgages with state support was 38%, for family mortgages — 44%. There is an increased demand for IT mortgages – 12%, — she cited the layout Yulia Moshkova, Mortgage Director of St. Petersburg Real Estate (part of Setl Group). — Preferential programs are still in demand, despite the change in conditions. The activity of buyers spurs the expectation of the completion of the program with state support and the upcoming changes in family mortgages. Developers and banks continue to look for alternative solutions. For example, our company offers clients programs that do not increase the cost of apartments and reduce the financial burden on the buyer during the construction period.

    Alexey Ushenin He confirmed that since April 5, Sberbank has resumed issuing loans under the Mortgage for IT program. Its relevance in the region is evidenced by the fact that St. Petersburg ranks second after Moscow in terms of the number of loans issued under it: in 2023, Petersburgers issued 2,400 such loans for 20.9 billion rubles, and almost 300 more for 2.2 billion rubles fell to residents of the Leningrad region. He also noted that family mortgages remain popular: this program accounts for more than half of all state-backed loans in St. Petersburg since the beginning of the year.

    — Directly in our projects in the Leningrad region, the share of mortgages amounted to 83% — 10 points lower than last year. At the same time, the share of each program depends on the format of the project,” Maria Orlova continued. — We have 63% for family mortgages, 25% for “state support”, while the share of IT mortgages has doubled, and military mortgages — from 2% last year to 15% this year. We see that demand has been redistributed in favor of subsidized programs, and collaborations with banks have increased even more.

    Svetlana Denisova noted that the share of military mortgages began to grow last year, but at first it was seen in the regions: the cost of housing there is significantly lower, and in six months of service people have already been able to buy an apartment.

    Kirill Kudryavtsev, Head of the Mortgage Department of the Pskov Group of Companies He believes that the average value for the quarter will not reflect the trend.

    — The fact is that in January 86% of new real estate was purchased in St. Petersburg with a mortgage, in February — 62%, in March — 67%. In general, this reflects last year’s dynamics, but quantitative indicators in terms of sales and mortgage issuance in 2024 are higher,” he explained. — Sales growth in the market in March was especially noticeable — by 50%. At the same time, the mortgage did not catch up so much. In part, the tightening of the conditions for issuing mass preferential mortgages had an effect. But then, until July, this type of lending will gradually increase its share, since its cancellation is already on the horizon, as well as a revision of the conditions for a family mortgage.

    He said that from the beginning of this year until mid-April, the ratio by type of mortgage loans in the PSK Group is as follows: IT mortgage — 24%, regular preferential (with state support) — 27%, family — 35%. The rest is accounted for by basic market programs.

    — In addition to the growth in demand for family mortgages indicated in the market as a whole, we have also recorded an increase in IT mortgages, – Kirill Kudryavtsev added.

    — In the KVS group of companies, the share of mortgage transactions in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 63%, — said Angelika Alshayeva, General Director of the KVS Real Estate Agency. — Such indicators are due to several factors: firstly, people are trying to take advantage of preferential programs (family and mortgage with state support), which will end on July 1 this year. It is no secret that the family mortgage will be extended until 2030, but it is expected that it will undergo changes. For example, the age of children who fit the conditions of the program can be reduced to 6 years. And it is not yet known whether this change will affect families with two or more children. Well, as for the mortgage with state support, we are preparing for the fact that it will completely leave St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.

    The second factor, according to her, was the behavior of banks: in February, a client could take out a mortgage without commission only in several small banks that could not cope with the current volume of demand — there were protracted transactions and difficult approvals. This led to the postponement of transactions to March. Well, in the first month of spring, VTB announced the cancellation of the commission, which also provoked growth. The third factor, according to Angelika Alshayeva, was seasonality: spring has always been considered a good time to purchase real estate, so the number of transactions in March and April increased.

    — At the beginning of the year, we did not make hasty decisions and continued to work with partner banks, – says Natalia Korotaevskaya, commercial director of the Aquilon Group in St. Petersburg and LO. — Of course, there was a redistribution of the share among credit institutions that did not introduce any additional fees. It is very good that in the end the banks met developers and buyers halfway. The situation in the mortgage market is slowly starting to stabilize.

    She added that for additional customer support, the company promptly launched an annual installment plan without increasing the cost of 20 to 80: the customer can pay 20% now, 80% in a year. The tranche mortgage continues to operate, which helps to reduce the monthly payment by 5-10 times while the house is being built, and buyers may be renting housing. According to her, the steps taken have helped to keep demand at an acceptable level.

    Alexey Belousov, General Director of the Association of Builders of St. Petersburg, believes that everything is quite good in St. Petersburg compared to many other parts of the country. In particular, he recalled that construction permits are not issued in 42 regions, as the prosecutor’s office requires that housing be provided with social infrastructure, which does not happen. In St. Petersburg, this problem has been solved now, after the creation of the Urban Planning Commission.

    — In the first quarter of 2024, 1 million 70 thousand square meters of housing were commissioned in St. Petersburg, which is about 3% higher than in the same quarter last year, — Belousov noted. — That is, you can be sure that the developers’ plans are coordinated, the industry is in a stable state and is ready to deal with the challenges of the time, which come, including from the Central Bank. First of all, the construction industry is influenced by the ability of citizens to take out a loan without government support, whereas now almost all mortgages are preferential.

    With a five-year perspective

    Of all the preferential programs, the family mortgage has the most transparent prospects — the president instructed to extend it until 2030.

    — In fact, the top program among mortgage borrowers is a family one, — says Elizaveta Nikolaeva. — Its share in our sales is about 50%.

    The expert expressed hope that even if this type of lending is more targeted, the rate and limits will remain, as well as the amount of the initial payment.

    — The program has been extended and changed at the same time, — Kirill Kudryavtsev comments. — The base rate of 6% per annum will remain for families with children under six years old. And for the rest, it will change depending on the key Central bank. And, perhaps, it will grow in the near future to 8% per annum or even to 10%. Of course, the decision to correlate the rate relative to the child’s age looks strange. On the other hand, it is necessary to get attached to something if the task is to cool down preferential mortgage lending.

    Among the likely targeted programs, according to the expert, special mortgage offers for the purchase of real estate in small towns and rural areas can help. This applies to regions with any development prospects. But these same regions also turn out to be leaders in terms of price growth in 2023: in Chelyabinsk, Volgograd and Omsk, prices increased by about 40%, about a quarter, while St. Petersburg is only in 15th place in this indicator with a modest 5.5%.

    Maria Orlova noted: if you look at the entire horizon of the family mortgage, then since 2020 more than 800 thousand families across the country have solved the housing issue with its help. Now, until the new conditions are clarified, people whose first child was born in 2024 cannot take out such a loan.

    “At the same time, from the point of view of increasing fertility, the potential of the program may be higher if it is divided into segments,” she believes. — For example, it would be possible to reduce the rate with each subsequent child. Or provide a separate subprogram for young families where spouses are under 30 years old. For them, the main difficulty is to save up for an initial payment.

    Maria Orlova also considered it possible to introduce restrictions on the minimum area of apartments that can be purchased on a family mortgage.

    — We do not yet know exactly how the conditions of a family mortgage will be transformed, so we recommend that customers use the current conditions to fix the most comfortable rate and payment, — Yulia Moshkova added.

    “We positively assess the initiative to extend the Family Mortgage program, but we assume that its terms will change after June 30,” Olga Kuznetsova added. — Various options are currently being discussed: the rate for parents of children under 6 years of age is 6%, for families with children over 6 years of age — 12%. But the result of all these initiatives will become clear when the terms of the support programs are fully formulated, as well as the size of the key rate and market mortgage rates are known.

    At the same time, she noted: since the Glavstroy St. Petersburg projects initially had family housing and fairly large average areas, the company, without expecting it, found itself in a better situation. The share of family mortgages in the residential complexes “Severnaya Dolina” and “Yuntolovo” amounted to 53% in the first quarter.

    — It is clear that family mortgages have become a driver of the market due to the fact that last year they significantly expanded the audience by connecting parents of two children under 18 years old to it, — Svetlana Denisova commented. — But this community is also shrinking, because it consists of people about 40 years old, many of whom, as their families grow, have already solved their housing problems or took out a mortgage earlier, when rates were lower. Therefore, in order to expand the audience, it is necessary to work with more subtle settings: young specialists, regional specialists who left for big cities when there were no prospects at home, etc.

    — Of course, the extension of the preferential program will have a positive impact on the market, but do not forget that the family mortgage carries some restrictions, — Angelika Alshayeva reminded. — For example, today only parents of one child born from 2018 to the end of 2023, as well as two or more minor children and children with disabilities can use it. But young families who are just planning children, as well as teachers, doctors, civil servants and other categories of citizens also need preferential programs. I really want targeted programs to be developed for them as well.

    Also, experts do not see significant prospects for expanding the audience of IT mortgages even in St. Petersburg. Therefore, it is possible that the program will end at the end of 2024.

    However, developers deny the possibility of lowering housing prices, since the cost is growing: another round of price increases for building materials is expected due to high needs due to floods in Orenburg, along with continued demand in new territories.

    — Our colleagues simply answer the question of which building materials are becoming more expensive: everything, — Kirill Kudryavtsev comments. — The costs of social infrastructure from schools to roads, respectively, are also growing. In addition, the product itself is developing and requires more investments in comfort and beauty. This means that all costs from project to project in terms of square meter increase. In general, it is easy to track: each new start of construction is accompanied by the publication of data on the amount of financing. And it’s getting bigger and bigger.

    — Therefore, you should not delude yourself and postpone life for later, waiting for prices to decrease, — says Svetlana Denisova. — Practice has shown that everyone who hurried last year bought on more favorable terms. That is, from the point of view of the state, the actions of the regulator may be correct, but from the point of view of an individual little person who is looking for where to invest money, conditions are deteriorating.

    At the same time, Svetlana Denisova believes: if we take today’s conditions, then the market has either already passed the peak of family mortgage issuance, or is close to passing it.

    — We understand that the family mortgage is now a guaranteed long-term product, which, without a doubt, will affect the industry for at least five years, — saidAlexey Belousov. — And we see that developers think systematically about the demographic situation and about targeted programs. And if our politicians had approached the issue in the same systematic way initially and preferential mortgages were immediately differentiated and adjusted directly to those who really need them, and not to everyone in a row, then we would not have brought the market to such a huge price gap between the primary and secondary markets — by more than 40%.

    Maxim Zhabin agreed that the significant price gap between new buildings and secondary housing is due to the unbalanced approach of the state to regulating the real estate market. He believes that the authorities have concentrated on stimulating the primary market, without paying enough attention to the secondary segment.

    In turn, Kirill Kudryavtsev believes that there are much more reasons for the price gap and they are much deeper than just the factor of preferential mortgages.

    — A more profitable purchase of a new property is, of course, a good reason to choose in its favor. Consequently, there is more demand, apartments are being sold faster and prices are rising faster,” he says. — At the same time, there are still more deals on the secondary market. And secondary mortgages are issued more in monetary terms, even though the weighted average rate in 2023 for a secondary mortgage was twice as high as that for a primary one. Therefore, prices on the secondary market are primarily regulated by the parameters of the housing stock and the preparation of the object for sale. Sometimes ordinary homesteading allows you to sell an apartment much faster and 10 percent more expensive than analogues in the same area and even a house.

    Dreams of 25 %

    In February 2024, information appeared that the Ministry of Finance intends to reduce the share of preferential mortgages to 25% from 90%, which were at the end of 2023.

    — Of course, it was a big burden on the budget, and it was clear that the state’s support would not last long, — commentsMaria Orlova. — Therefore, there will be a decrease, but it is unlikely to reach 25% — in the current conditions, this will mean a collapse of the housing market and a slowdown in the entire construction industry. Another thing is that a healthier situation for the market would not be a strong dependence on preferential programs, but a working level of mortgage rates on market conditions with the ability to offer more profitable options to certain categories of buyers.

    According to her, such a measure will revive the market not only for primary, but also for secondary housing. In the meantime, 30% of customers who want to sell their secondary property first to buy an apartment in a new building cannot do this.

    — Now the following steps are obvious: preferential programs in the form in which we have become accustomed to them over the past 4 years are leaving, they will be replaced by targeted narrow—profile support measures, – comments Yulia Moshkova. — The market is waiting for a reduction in the key rate, but the inflation risks are still very high, and, in my opinion, we should not expect a sharp decrease in the near future.

    According to her, with a key rate of 4.5%, the share of preferential mortgages was minimal in the overall sales structure, because most buyers could choose standard offers. The higher the key rate, the greater the difference between the standard product and the terms of a preferential mortgage. Of course, in such conditions, demand was redistributed towards the primary market, which, in particular, affected the price gap.

    — So far, we have not observed interesting conditions in the secondary market, so we expect that the announced support measures in the secondary market will be implemented over time — this will gradually balance the gap that has appeared, — added Moshkova.

    Elizaveta Nikolaeva believes that the key rate will decrease in the medium term, and this will allow developers to develop programs that will approach the level of rates to the conditions of programs with state support.

    — Of course, we hope for a reduction in the key rate in the second half of the year, which will lead to an increase in sales in the secondary market, and due to this sales in the primary market will increase — everything is interconnected, — says Elizaveta Nikolaeva.

    Svetlana Denisova added that additional discounts on mortgage rates are provided by developers in collaboration with those banks where they take project financing and place escrow accounts.

    — The maximum amount of state support is 6 million rubles, but this is often not enough to improve housing conditions. It turns out that government support is already functioning mainly in those regions where the cost per square meter is lower. Therefore, the primary market is already partially working out the situation on the abolition of standard state support and by the end of summer it will probably adapt to new conditions. Developers will practice installments more widely, banks will offer programs with reduced payments at an early stage of the loan, — saidDenisova.

    According to Kirill Kudryavtsev, in the future the regulator’s steps will tighten the conditions, which can always be explained by an increase in debt, an increase in mortgage delinquencies (even if it is purely nominal) and so on. “Mortgages in the hands of the regulator are turning into an instrument of indirect market control,” he noted.

    Olga Kuznetsova agrees that in general, all the steps — the completion of the state support program after June 1, 2024, the curtailment of the IT mortgage program after December 31, 2024 and the tightening of conditions for family mortgages (targeted support for families with children under 6 years old) – contribute to reducing the share of preferential mortgages, since without broad programs for all demand it will be reduced if special conditions are not offered for mass categories of buyers.

    “If the government continues to provide assistance in a more targeted manner, then this support may be more significant: for example, granting a loan at a rate of 4-6% for certain groups of citizens,” she added. — We always advocate special programs for teachers, doctors and specialists of other important professions. Another tool in support of the federal project “Professionalism” could be a mortgage program for parents of students for their first home, similar to an education loan.

    There is also a request from large employers for an industry mortgage, when companies partially compensate employees for the cost of the initial payment or part of the mortgage interest in exchange for receiving tax benefits from the state. And given the fact that companies’ concern for personnel is reaching a higher level today, this trend may increase, Olga Kuznetsova believes.

    — Perhaps it is worth providing special programs for specialists of rare or socially significant professions: doctors, teachers, military, — confirms Natalia Korotaevskaya. — Decisions regarding regional programs are also clear — first of all, they are aimed at the development of new territories.

    “Targeted support programs are very important for the regions, in particular, the Arctic and Far Eastern mortgages,” Yulia Moshkova believes. — These programs occupy a significant share in the sales structure of many banks, because a program with an interest rate of 2% is interesting for customers against the background of current market conditions. This is also beneficial from the point of view of reducing internal migration and the development of specific regions — people have an incentive to stay, work and develop the economy of their hometowns.

    She evaluates both useful and targeted support measures: for example, some banks, together with large enterprises, offer a corporate mortgage program. This tool is used to attract, retain and stimulate employees — they are provided with preferential conditions for the purchase of housing. And the company gets a loyal employee for a long time.

    At the same time, Maxim Zhabin He added that, nevertheless, the stimulation of housing construction in some regions that do not yet have sufficient infrastructure and jobs, for example, in the Arctic, raises questions.

    “Even preferential terms are unlikely to attract many apartment buyers there,” he explained. — If we talk about targeted government support for certain categories of citizens or regions, this is the right approach to stimulate the country’s economy. But an even more effective measure would be to support developers through subsidizing project financing rates, as was done in past crises. This will require less budget expenditures, money will be returned through taxes, and the financial burden on developers will decrease. At the same time, the state will be able to control the use of allocated funds on a point-by-point basis.

    High expectations for the second quarter

    Developers predict that the second quarter will obviously be a “shock” in terms of demand ahead of the upcoming cancellation of the state-backed mortgage program on July 1. And it seems that no one doubts that it will be canceled. Plus, the deferred demand that has formed during the period of the commissions of a number of large banks, which is realized after their cancellation, will have an impact.

    — People are returning, the volume of reservations is very serious — we see this in the new queue of the Bay Lights residential complex, which we recently brought to the market. Therefore, expectations for the second quarter are very high,” Svetlana Denisova confirmed.

    — In general, we believe that the situation is leveling off, and the second quarter will be quite stable, and in the second half of the year demand will go up again due to the development of mortgage programs, — comments Natalia Korotaevskaya.

    — The beginning of the second quarter is full of positive changes, — said Alexey Ushenin. — The improvement of conditions in the mortgage market and the influence of the seasonal factor should have a positive impact on the demand for housing loans. The BEAC has abolished the requirements for subsidizing preferential mortgage programs from developers — the bank’s salary clients, as well as developers who are on the bank’s project financing. At the same time, developers can still apply subsidies to reduce the client’s rate.

    — Since we do not have to wait for positive news from the Central Bank, our task is to combine the efforts of builders and banks and jointly create programs that will support both the construction market and the banking sector, — Alexey Belousov believes. — The second quarter will be held in anticipation of the cancellation of preferential mortgages. As always, we will see those who do nothing and hope that something will change, the mortgage will be extended again, new conditions will appear. But, most likely, nothing will change in the market, and at the end of June we will see the traditional surge in transactions. The very customers who could not make a decision until the very end will jump into the last carriage.

    Elizaveta Nikolaeva commented:

    — We do not expect drastic changes in the market. The first quarter was relatively quiet, and in the second, perhaps, we expect an increase in demand associated with the end of government support programs. It is difficult to predict what will happen next, as there is no understanding whether the programs with state support will be extended and how targeted they will be. So far, we are working with banks to develop various options for installments and offers, depending on the level of readiness of our projects. For a number of projects, especially in the high stage of readiness, we can offer quite attractive conditions.

    — We expect more activity from the second quarter closer to its end, when the cancellation of the program will be, as they say, “on the nose,” agrees Kirill Kudryavtsev. — There will be a lot of applications for preferential mortgages at the last moment. Well, those categories that are suitable for other preferential programs — for example, an IT mortgage with a validity period until the end of the year – will ensure a more even demand.

    Maria Orlova, in turn, noted: the difficult situation in the first quarter formed a deferred demand, due to which, at the end of the state support, demand is expected to grow by 35-40% relative to the first quarter. However, at the moment a sharp increase in it can increase the cost per square meter by 10-15%.

    — This is a truly Russian approach: in the format of haste, deficit, jump into the last carriage of the departing train when there is no time to make informed decisions. Therefore, the transaction cycle will be shortened, plus we are most likely waiting for some kind of increase in the cost per square meter,” Orlova noted. — If we look further, I hope that the second half of the year will be more favorable to developers, and there we will see both the targeting of programs and a reduction in the key rate.

    — Mortgage changes will still affect sales until the middle of the year: the cancellation of preferential programs, stricter conditions, and so on, — confirms Angelika Alshayeva. — We expect a traditional lull in the summer, and by autumn we hope for a reduction in the key rate and an increase in sales volumes. KVS plans to continue to adhere to its plans and adapt to external circumstances.

    — High interest will remain in state programs — of course, within the remaining limits, — Yulia Moshkova added. — In the third quarter after the state program, the market will begin to rebuild again. This will be a difficult transition period, the development of events may be influenced by various factors — new conditions for preferential programs, the introduction of new support measures, the size of the key rate.

    — We expect that the key rate will begin to decrease in the second half of 2024, — comments Olga Kuznetsova. — At the same time, according to forecasts of market participants, the state support program is highly likely to be completed on July 1. Therefore, we urge those who are already thinking about buying an apartment not to postpone the purchase. The dynamics of 2024, the information flows that appear on the market, demonstrate a gradual tightening of conditions. Therefore, if the purchase decision is made, you do not need to wait 2 months, it must be implemented right now.

    Maxim Zhabin called for finding a balance between market support and its natural development in order to avoid serious problems in the future: the high debt burden associated with preferential mortgages becomes a trigger for both the market and the statements of the head of the Central Bank.

    — Yes, I support the completion of the preferential mortgage program for new buildings from July 2024, — he repeated. — It is reasonable for market participants to act within the framework of market mechanisms, and this program should have been stopped a long time ago — immediately after the end of the pandemic.

    As for the volume of housing commissioning, Alexey BelousovIt is expected that approximately 3.5–3.6 million square meters will be rented in St. Petersburg. m per year, since it was laid down 2-3 years ago. Therefore, serious changes, despite fluctuations in demand, are not yet expected.

    Alexey Belousov also added that the National Association of Builders recently supported the initiative of the Association of Furniture and Woodworking Industry to include built-in furniture in the mortgage, which will be sold together with apartments.

    — I hope that this session the deputies will adopt appropriate amendments and buyers will be able to include furniture in loans, including family mortgages, — he said.

    From the banks

    According to Anastasia Trifonova, head of mortgage lending development at the St. Petersburg branch of PSB, according to the results of the first quarter of 2024, the branch records an increase in mortgage lending by 120% compared to the same period of the previous year.

    — If you look at the context of state support programs, 62% fell on family mortgages — and every month its share increases, — the expert clarified. — It is worth noting: in addition to programs with state support, PSB implements special offers for salary clients, including employees of defense industry enterprises, with lower rates and an initial payment.

    The demand for military mortgages is also growing — it occupies 20% in the structure of mortgage products of the branch in St. Petersburg. PSB was the first among Russian banks to provide military personnel with a service that allows them to make a deal to buy an apartment under this loan program remotely, using a smartphone.

    Отрицание — принятие — спрос. Как рынок новостроек Петербурга и Ленобласти пережил первый квартал с новыми условиями льготной ипотеки

    Photo: Sergey Mikhaylichenko/


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