A year ago, the average market mortgage rates were at the level of 11.06–11.17% per annum. In June 2024, they rose to 18.08–18.33%
Weighted average rates on market mortgage programs increased by 7 percentage points over the year and exceeded 18% per annum at the beginning of June. This follows from the data “House.RF” according to the dynamics of supply rates of the top 20 mortgage banks, which were reviewed by RBC-Real Estate.
According to the Institute of Housing Development, as of June 7, 2024, the average mortgage rate for new buildings is at the level of 18.08%, for secondary housing — 18.33%, and for refinancing programs — 18.02%. For comparison: a year ago (as of June 9, 2023), the weighted average market mortgage rate for primary housing was 11.06%, for secondary housing — 11.17%, for refinancing programs — 11.32%.
As for the rates on preferential mortgages, they also increased slightly over the year due to a reduction in compensation to banks under such programs. If a year ago the average rate on a preferential mortgage for new buildings was 7.62%, now it is 8% (the limit value), on a family mortgage — 5.61% in June 2023, now it is 6% (the limit value).
How mortgage rates have been rising
The increase in mortgage rates began in August 2023, after the Central Bank raised the key rate by 1 percentage point to 8.5% for the first time in a year and a half at the July meeting. As a result, in August, mortgage rates under market programs increased on average to 11.45% per annum.
A new round of mortgage appreciation occurred last fall, when the regulator in August unscheduled increased the key rate to 12% per annum. As a result, market mortgage rates for new buildings in September reached 13.76%, for ready—made housing – 13.96%. After that, the increase in mortgage rates continued against the background of an increase in the key rate. By the end of 2023, the average rates for market programs reached 16.21% for housing under construction and 16.72% for apartments from owners. Rates remained at about this level until mid—May – the key rate did not grow during this period either.
But in the second half of May, banks began to raise mortgage rates, despite maintaining the key rate. They explained the increase in rates by the increase in the cost of OFZ. Also, the reason for the increase in mortgage rates could be the expectation of a key increase, analysts explained. But the Central Bank at the June meeting kept the key at the current level.
Change in mortgage rates for the year Date Average market mortgage rate for new buildings, % Average mortgage rate with state support, % Average family mortgage rate, % Average rate for secondary housing, % Average refinancing rate, % Beginning of June 2023 11.06% 7.62% 5.61% 11.17% 11.32%
Beginning of July 2023 11.06% 7.60% 5.61% 11.16% 11.32%
Beginning of August 2023 11.43% 7.45% 5.42% 11.45% 11.76%
Beginning of September 2023 13.76% 7.54% 5.53% 13.97% 13.85%
Beginning of October 2023 14.38% 7.97% 5.95% 14.52% 14.44%
Beginning of November 2023 16.06% 7.97% 5.95% 16.14% 16.37%
Beginning of December 2023 16.18% 7.98% 5.96% 16.16% 16.63%
Beginning of January 2024 16.76% 8.00% 6.00% 16.96% 17.08%
Beginning of February 2024 16.72% 8.00% 6.00% 16.94% 16.97%
Beginning of March 2024 16.77% 8.00% 6.00% 16.95% 17.04%
Beginning of April 2024 16.77% 8.00% 6.00% 16.95% 17.04%
Beginning of May 2024 16.76% 8.00% 6.00% 16.95% 17.02%
Beginning of June 2024 18.08% 8.00% 6.00% 18.33% 18.02%
Data: “Dom.RF”
At the meeting on June 7, the Bank of Russia maintained the key rate of 16% per annum for the fourth time in a row. It has been at this level since December 2023. Many analysts and economists predicted an increase in the Central Bank’s rate amid rising inflation and overheating of the economy. At the same time, the regulator does not exclude an increase at the next meeting. Experts interviewed by RBC-Real Estate disagree on the further dynamics of rates. Some believe that the rise in the price of market mortgages will continue, others admit a reduction in rates.
See also:
- A month before the end of the preferential mortgage: what will happen to rates and prices
- The family income required to service the mortgage exceeded ₽100 thousand.
- Who will find it difficult to get a mortgage in 2024
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