Will rental housing become more expensive? Do not be sad — and do not hope

Съемное жилье подорожает? Не печальтесь — и не надейтесь

Photo: Kirill Kukhmar/TASS

The so-called “analytics” from leading real estate agencies is not worth a damn nowadays, since there is no truthful information in it in principle. There is a systemic crisis in the real estate market — nothing is being bought or sold — so intermediaries decided to bet on rent. Everything is also very sad here, but realtors are still trying to wishful thinking.

“Apartment rentals in Russia will rise in price this spring. Now there are about 44 thousand housing rental ads in the country — half the level of the last three years. Also, over the past year, the average rental rate increased by 40% and amounted to about 91 thousand rubles in Moscow, 44 thousand rubles in St. Petersburg and about 35 thousand rubles in other cities of Russia.

Thus, rental yields returned to high values in 2021. The owner, having invested in housing, can receive 5-7% of its value per year, and this is without taking into account the growth in the value of the real estate itself,” the real estate analytical center DOM.RF broadcasts.

The figures are completely absurd, this applies not so much to the mythical growth rates, but also to the rates indicated above.

The people stupidly do not have such money, who does not believe — you can look at the Central Bank’s analytics. Where it is written in black and white that at the end of 2023, the median value of per capita disposable income was 18.9 thousand rubles per month.

However, the proposed unscientific fiction is by no means the most masterpiece of “analytics”.

For example, according to some data, “CYANOGEN.Analysts”, it allegedly costs 55.9 thousand rubles per month to rent a one-room apartment in Moscow on average. For that kind of money, you can easily rent a modest short-lived “three-piece” with Soviet repairs, but clean and in a more or less decent area. Apparently, the “experts” do not know this.

“Reducing the cost of renting apartments is logical, because this year from About two million people left Russia, who were the main tenants. IT specialists and rich people have gone abroad. As a result, Muscovites have to resort to a more flexible policy, for example, renting an apartment not to one person, but to several at once. It seems that in the near future it is not worth waiting for the return of a large number of people who will start filming again. And, rather, on the contrary, many will continue to leave. I would not wait for an increase in prices in the rental market, at least until the supply is significantly higher than the demand,” political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov said in January 2023.

Exactly one year has passed, has the situation changed? Yes, but only for the worse. Data on emigration is now “classified”, how many people have left the Russian Federation can only be judged by indirect data. For example, according to statistics from the border service of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation, the number of Russian trips abroad in 2023 turned out to be 17% more than in January—December 2022. The list of the most popular countries is too familiar — Abkhazia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, UAE, Georgia, Armenia and Thailand.

That is, our country has lost at least another million citizens, if not all two again. How can there be an increase in the cost of rent?

The downward trend in prices for residential real estate and its rental is especially noticeable in the elite segment, where there are opportunities for reduction. In some regions, prices have already fallen by 1.5−2 times,” Yegor Klopenko, the head of Itleaders, lamented last summer.

The rental market collapsed by 30-50% in demand back in the fall of 2022, after the mobilization was announced, and has not recovered since then. Both capitals suffered the least, but in the provinces the supply is many times higher than the demand.

“Rental rates for apartments in large cities have dropped by 10-15% due to a decrease in demand and an increase in supply. For example, in St. Petersburg – by 14-15%, in Moscow — by 13%,” Yana Glazunova, CEO of VSN Realty, cautiously assessed the market.

However, the data is again six months old. And “adjusted” in the best traditions of Rosstat. And now all the realtors suddenly began to claim that the prices of rented housing have suddenly increased and will continue to increase. Moreover, without arguing his innermost knowledge in any way. A mystery, however…

But with a very simple solution — real estate market figures are now out of work. There is no mortgage anymore, not at all. Even targeted “preferential” programs with state subsidies were curtailed by banks by a strong-willed decision. So, the other day Sberbank announced that there will be no more “IT mortgages” for specialists in this industry.

And besides loans, people don’t have money. The economic situation in Russia Russia continues to deteriorate, the people continue to emigrate. No one is buying or selling anything, the real estate market is frozen in anticipation of the inevitable collapse in prices. By the way, in this regard, calculations about some kind of profitability of investments in housing look completely stupid. Such disinformation is designed exclusively for suckers, and there have been no suckers left in our country for a long time.

The only light in the window for dealers in other people’s square meters is mediation in the rental market. That is why people are being told not to yawn, they say, tomorrow all rented apartments will become noticeably more expensive. The message is frankly false.

But the problem is not only in this particular “analytics”. If we sum up all the pearls that realtors have given out over the past year, then we should talk about a complete loss of confidence in the forecasts of these characters and companies. Rather, it is worth acting “on the contrary” — if they talk about future growth, then a fall is expected. And then on the same principle.

Actually, in the current information society, with electronic document management, registries and other MFCs, the very existence of these intermediaries becomes unnecessary. Especially now, when both the seller and the buyer carefully count the pennies, sometimes the last ones. The tenant and the landlord are the same!

“The proportion of buyers who independently search for objects depends on the class of housing. In the mass segment, it reaches 80%, in the case of business class and above – up to 50%. With a purchase budget above 20 million rubles, realtors often provide full—service services, call themselves, go to shows,” says Ekaterina Nikitina, vice president of the Guild of Realtors of Moscow.

Let’s say not 80%, but almost all 100%. And if someone is hired, it is for more than a modest penny. And not a greedy agency, but a private realtor, by acquaintance. As for deals for untold tens of millions, there are no more such deals, these are nothing more than the “wet dreams” of intermediaries. There are indeed many people willing to sell, including 99% of the relocants. There are no buyers, in principle.

Apparently, in the next six months we will see large real estate offices leaving the market. Maybe that’s all. Those are just superfluous.

Источник

Leave a Reply

We use cookies to give you the best possible experience on our site. By clicking "Accept", you agree to our use of cookies.

Accept
en_USEnglish