Photo: Vitaly Nevar/TASS
The preferential mortgage has ended — as of today, the program has been canceled, all lobbying attempts to extend it have not been successful. And not because there was no money in the state budget, there is a lot of it, in general, and it is not necessary.
The main problem is that this type of loans is not needed by the financial sector, banks do not know what to do with loans already issued. They are owed more than 20 trillion rubles, and at any moment all these debts can turn into a pumpkin.
So, there is no preferential mortgage anymore, the usual one remains — the “market” one. But it is very strange, or rather, purely declarative. It seems to be there, but it is not there. Is this really the case?
Let’s look at the facts: rates on loans for the purchase of real estate from 20% per annum, whereas banks now pay the same amount on deposits. How’s that? It is impossible to issue loans at exactly the same price as the cost of the funds involved, there will be no profit! More precisely, taking into account all the overhead costs — both for deposits and loans for the purchase of real estate — there will be a direct loss. So something in our financial arithmetic is wrong.
The existence of such a “market” mortgage is incorrect, banks have indeed stopped issuing these loans altogether. So, over the past month, VTB has already raised mortgage rates three times and tightened the terms of service. They tightened it to the point that it became completely inaccessible — there are simply very few people in the Russian Federation who fall under these requirements. And they can buy real estate without getting into debt.
“In fact, mortgages are now becoming a luxury, because the real incomes of the population are lower than the figures given in statistics and analytics. And in order to take out a mortgage on an apartment or some other real estate object now, you need to have a good income and at the same time a good credit history.
Plus, a fairly large initial payment of at least 20%, in some cases from 30%. Some banks approve from 40-50%. Banks try to minimize their risks. Salaries in the amount of 400 thousand rubles for Moscow and 200-250 thousand rubles for the regions are exorbitant amounts against the background of the fact that banks have raised rates after all,” explains Dmitry Rakuta, founder of the Mortgage Brokers Association.
Banks don’t even talk to people with lower incomes nowadays. And 30% of the initial payment is already outdated information. 50-60% is becoming the norm, or rather, it has already become so in the spring.
“The conditions for issuing mortgages in Rosbank have become prohibitive. Obviously, they want to put the mortgage on hold. But the bank does it in such a mocking way,” says economist Vitaly Kalugin.
Not only the aforementioned Rosbank is acting in a mocking manner, but all market participants en masse. Somewhere, the “intriguing details” of issuing a loan of this type are openly indicated, somewhere they are explained already in conversation with clients. But the point is the same everywhere — we will not give you money, and do not ask.
In a number of credit institutions, the reform of structural units that previously dealt with mortgages has already begun. By the way, this process did not start yesterday, they began to reduce or repurpose staff in the winter. When it finally dawned on all financiers that real estate loans needed to be stopped urgently.
According to the data of the analytical company Frank RG, at the beginning of June 2024, 43% of the mortgage portfolio of Russian banks was occupied by state-backed mortgages. For new loans, its share even reached almost 80%, and this is open data. In private conversations, other figures are called, close to 100%.
It was difficult to refuse the “beneficiaries”, but in the spring the largest market players agreed and decided to do it. Explaining everything by exhausting the limits of state support, which was not particularly true. But there was no other way out, Russian officials were simply put the squeeze on — the bankers no longer wanted to play this “Russian roulette”.
The above—mentioned Rosbank, the fifth largest mortgage portfolio in the country, is now trying to get rid of it. That is, to sell the rights of claim on these loans. To put it simply, “on your fingers” – let someone else receive interest on these loans. If he can…
Why is that? After all, it is possible for a very long time — the average term of a mortgage loan is now about 25 years — to make a good profit. But for some reason, Rosbank decided that it was worth helping out at least something, but now. What would all this be about?
Probably due to the fact that the situation with real estate prices, which are secured by banks, is very uncertain. As well as the dynamics of mortgage delinquency, the real statistics on which are kept in strict secrecy. It’s no secret that everything is bad here. But how bad it is is not disclosed.
It is almost impossible to sell such a dangerous asset nowadays, except for absolutely nothing. Which the bank’s management is unlikely to do. And there is hardly a buyer anyway, the risks are already very high. Anyway, the money is very big, and there are no people willing to risk it now.
In principle, long-term lending is possible only if the country has economic prospects for the same period. If there is any stability, confidence in the future.
In the Russian Federation, they tried to violate this rule, in the conditions of a collapsing economy and constantly decreasing incomes of the population, they decided to develop a mortgage. Developers who wanted to sell living space for a lot of money were interested in it, in fact, they were the ones who lobbied for the “preferential” program.
The financiers, apparently, decided to take part in all this too. But now they’ve come to their senses. That’s it — the shop is closed. Although this does not make it any easier — there is a 20 trillion time bomb that can explode at any moment.
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