Photo: Alexander Ryumin/TASS
The systemic crisis in the Russian real estate market, which has resulted in a huge number of unclaimed new buildings, threatens to turn into a different kind of problem in the very near future. Many houses have been empty for two or three years and begin to deteriorate quickly without supervision. Plus numerous unfinished buildings, most of which will never be resuscitated. What should I do with all this?
In China, too, all is not well in the real estate market, although the Chinese are far from our problems. However, there are also enough abandoned houses, and in The Celestial Empire simply began to eliminate them. Unfinished high-rise buildings are being mercilessly blown up, and this approach should be called the only correct one. Because after a short time, the building may collapse spontaneously, and with human casualties.
How many such potentially dangerous buildings are there in our country? According to real estate market analysts, developers now have 2-3 million apartments idle throughout Russia, mostly in the metropolitan region and millionaires. There is little construction in the remote province, as there is no demand there due to its complete absence.
“20% of Russian families with children can only afford food. 60% of families with children live in conditions where they have enough money only for basic needs such as food and clothing. They are forced to give up large purchases — appliances, furniture, repairs or even necessary medical services. Most Russian families with children are in a situation where they have to seriously limit their needs,” says Nina Ostanina, head of the State Duma Committee for Family Protection.
And the further away from the capital, the worse the situation is. Developers are aware, so new houses appear only where people earn more. However, there are fewer and fewer such regions…
So, about three million apartments… How many houses are there? For example, there were 50-80 apartments in Khrushchevki, depending on the length of the house. In the nine-storey buildings of the 70-80’s — about 200 each. In modern “humanoids” their number sometimes reaches 500 or more, but these are already quite rare options. Let’s stop at 300 — for a round number. At the exit, we will get about 10 thousand abandoned houses.
Actually, of course, more, but the order is about the same. Numerous unfinished buildings will increase the problem by about 40-50%, that is, up to 15 thousand buildings. It is already worth starting to stockpile explosives for demolition.
At least because it is impossible to simply put them into operation — even if the apartments are distributed free of charge to those in need. The municipal disaster of early 2024 clearly demonstrated that the housing and communal services infrastructure is on its last legs.
Connecting uninhabited new buildings to it will lead to an instant collapse, everything will collapse. The pipes will burst, the wires will burn, and the boilers of the CHP will fail. The thunder seems to have already struck, but the authorities still don’t even itch.
It turns out that the new real estate, into which trillions of rubles are poured, is de facto worthless. It cannot be exploited, there is no one to sell it to. Of course, there is a potential demand, it is huge. According to the General Director of Dom.Russian Federation” Vitaly Mutko, 14 million Russian families with children would like to improve their living conditions. But their desires, as it was indicated, are sharply at odds with the possibilities. Many people count every penny, just not to starve to death.
Oligarchs from the construction industry stubbornly keep prices for their apartments, although it is no longer clear what they are counting on.
“Two months after the cancellation of the preferential mortgage, the cost of new buildings has not collapsed, developers are keeping prices. In general, sales have slowed down — this is evident from the growth in supply, which increased by 29% in August,” said Pavel Lutsenko, CEO of Mir Apartments.
There are fewer construction sites, but they strangely do not stop, the “human” continue to build. Although it is already clear to everyone that no one will buy them. There is no one and nothing to do. If the number of unnecessary houses has increased by 30% in just a month, then what will happen by the end of the year?
“In fact, the entire primary market is based on preferential programs. And due to the fact that the state program was noted, and significant changes took place in the IT mortgage, plus additional restrictions were introduced, of course, developers are experiencing an outflow of potential buyers. The volume of transactions is decreasing, including in large metropolitan areas,” explains Dmitry Rakuta, founder of the Mortgage Brokers Association.
“Declining” is a fact. To zero, to be more precise. All built houses, regardless of their class, now fall into illiquid, without options. Actually, their owners are to blame here, because it was possible to slightly increase costs and rebuild a new communal infrastructure for them. But tycoons are not used to investing in the future, they only want to make a profit. And thus drove themselves into a trap.
Theoretically, there is a way out of this situation — it is necessary to force the oligarchs to invest heavily in the housing and communal services system, and so that all built facilities become state-owned.
With an honest and strict state reception, with the planting of bribe-taking officials and other harsh measures. Then tens of thousands of high-rise buildings can be inhabited. Theoretically.
But practically this is unscientific fiction, no one will invest anything in housing and communal services. The whole bureaucratic fraternity is run by big business, and there has been no feedback here. Moreover, the interests of the common people are not traced. Therefore, after some time it will have to be blown up, there are simply no other options.
And then? Who will pay for the transportation and disposal of millions of tons of construction debris? In China, they will definitely force you to do business, you will not be spoiled there. But here, alas, you are not there. It’s also a huge problem.
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