You’re lying, you won’t take it: plus mortgage statistics in August

You’re lying, you won’t take it: plus mortgage statistics in August

Plus, both in terms of the number and volume of mortgages issued to Russians — perhaps few people expected this from August, but come on. At the same time, the average loan size and the average loan term increased compared to July

Врешь, не возьмешь: плюсовая ипотечная статистика августа

Contrary to the forecasts of a number of analysts who claim that the high (and promising to grow even more) key rate, coupled with a review of the entire preferential mortgage structure, will cause the new building market to collapse, and in continuation of the conversation about the growth of August sales in the primary market of a number of large cities of the country – statistics of the United Credit Bureau (OKB)*, which summed up the results of issuing mortgage loans to Russians in August 2024. In short: the mortgage is not for rent.

In general, according to the OKB, in August banks issued 80.29 thousand mortgages for 332.88 billion rubles. (As experts remind, the calculations take into account loans from banks that transmit data to the OKB, for which contracts have been signed and the bank has actually transferred funds to customer accounts this month. In some cases, the discrepancy between the date of signing the contract and the transfer of funds can be up to 180 days.)

In annual terms, the number of loans, of course, decreased, and very significantly — by 63%, and the volume — by 64% (in August last year, 216.01 thousand mortgages were issued for 913.35 billion rubles). The average loan size decreased by 2% year-on-year (from 4.23 million to 4.15 million rubles); the average loan term increased by nine months (from 21 years of seven months to 22 years of four months).

However, the most interesting for market players, perhaps, should be a comparison of August with July: in July, transactions approved in June were still closed (that is, under the final existence of a preferential mortgage on new buildings), therefore August is considered the first full-fledged “post-tender” month. So, in July 2024, 79.43 thousand mortgages were issued for 306.99 billion rubles, and in the last month of summer, the number of loans increased by 1% and the volume by 8%. The average loan size also increased (by 7% compared to July’s 3.86 million rubles) and the average mortgage loan term (by 13 months compared to July’s 21 years and three months).

“New housing in August took up 27% of the total number and 37% of the total volume of mortgage loans: 21.85 thousand loans worth 122.79 billion rubles were issued for its purchase. A month earlier, the share of loans for new buildings amounted to 19% of the total number of mortgages issued by banks and 27% of their total volume, namely 14.75 thousand loans worth 83.94 billion rubles. A year ago, the share of primary housing was equal to 32% of the total and 39% of the total volume of mortgage loans: in August 2023, 69.89 thousand such loans were issued in the amount of 358.43 billion rubles,” OKB experts share details.

To complete the picture, data on the secondary market. Here, 42.82 thousand mortgages worth 135.86 billion rubles were issued for the purchase of housing this August, which amounted to 53% of the total number and 41% of the total volume of mortgage loans. In July, the share of secondary loans in the total number of mortgages issued was 63%, in total — 49%: during the month, Russians issued 49.73 thousand loans worth 150.21 billion rubles. In August last year, 122.98 million loans were issued for housing in the secondary sector for 438.1 billion rubles, which amounted to 57% of the total and 48% of the total volume of mortgage loans.

However, as noted in the OKB, the August dynamics of mortgage lending in the regions was multidirectional. The largest increase compared to the results of July was recorded in the Chukotka Autonomous District (the number of loans increased by 32%, the volume by 59%), Adygea (by 26% and 41%), Oryol region (by 12% and 36%). The largest decrease was observed in the Sakhalin Region (the number decreased by 19%, the volume by 20%), Dagestan (by 22% and 16%), Primorsky Krai (by 19% and 13%).

According to the expert assessment of the OKB, the top 5 regions in terms of mortgage lending in August included Moscow (5.46 thousand loans for 39.73 billion rubles), the Moscow Region (4.26 thousand loans for 24.46 billion rubles), St. Petersburg (3.35 thousand loans for 18.5 billion rubles), Krasnodar Territory (2.67 thousand loans for 11.94 billion rubles) and Bashkortostan (3.19 thousand loans for 11.21 billion rubles). Records of the month: in August, the most “weighty” mortgages were issued to residents of Moscow — an average of 7.28 million rubles; the longest average mortgage loan period was set in Ingushetia — 320 months (26 years eight months), and the shortest in Buryatia — 233 months (19 years five months).

At the same time, the bank “Dom.The Russian Federation” analyzed* at which stages of construction readiness mortgages are most often issued under equity participation agreements (DDA) in 2024. It turned out that every fourth borrower bought a new building with a willingness of up to 20% (the share of such loans increased by 4.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023). Loans at an early stage of construction (as a rule, this phase includes site preparation, excavation and foundation filling) are issued in the amount of about 35 billion rubles.

“Statistics confirm the trend in recent years for the purchase of apartments at an earlier stage of construction readiness: the range of offers for them is wider, and the price is lower (usually during the construction process, the price per square meter increases by an average of 12-15% per year). And taking into account the transition of the market to escrow accounts, the risk of losing money is minimized, because the developer will get access to them only after putting the house into operation,” recalls the head of mortgage products of Dom Bank.Russian Federation” Igor Rudenko.

According to the bank’s calculations, in 21.4% of cases, borrowers purchased an apartment at the stage of 20-40% readiness (30 billion rubles), but the share of such loans decreased by 1.6 percentage points compared to last year. At this stage, the main structures are usually erected and work is carried out on the installation of internal partitions.

Every fifth mortgage is issued for new buildings that are ready for 40-60% (28.5 billion rubles), the percentage of such transactions in the demand structure has practically not changed. The stage involves work on the installation of floors, facades and installation of internal engineering communications.

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Finally, the share of customers who buy housing readily by 60-80% has also not changed compared to last year — 18.3% (25.5 billion rubles). But the percentage of those who chose apartments of the highest degree of readiness, from 80% (these are already fully built buildings with connected engineering systems and communications, but without landscaping), decreased by 3 percentage points and amounted to 14.9% (20.6 billion rubles).

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