Photo: Sergey Mikhaylichenko/
The first quarter of 2024 turned out to be difficult for the St. Petersburg construction market: some banks introduced commissions, then the conditions for issuing preferential mortgages for some programs changed, then the limits for others ended. Despite this, by the end of March there was an uptrend, which persisted in April. Developers expect greater activation in June, when, moving away from the May holidays, people will seek to purchase an apartment under the state support program, the cancellation of which, it seems, no one doubts.
“Fontanka.
The first quarter: gradual growth
The assessment of the results of the first quarter depends on what to compare its results with. If you look at the beginning of 2023, the indicators are more than good. Demand for apartments in the primary market of the St. Petersburg agglomeration increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, says Olga Trosheva, director of the St. Petersburg Real Estate Consulting Center (Setl Grope). According to her, from January to March 2024, about 18.5 thousand transactions were concluded, while from month to month there was a positive trend in demand: from 5 thousand transactions in January to 7.4 thousand transactions in March.
— The market situation is being transformed under the influence of changes in mortgage lending conditions, — she explained. — At the beginning of the year, after increasing the minimum down payment to 30% and reducing the maximum loan amount by half under the state program, we expected a greater decrease in sales volumes, but the number of transactions grew from month to month. The approaching deadline for the completion of the state-supported program and the upcoming changes in the conditions for issuing family mortgages stimulated purchasing activity.
According to Olga Trosheva, in addition to mortgage programs, developers supported demand with installments, offering customers various options, including the ability to fix the cost of an apartment, make the first payments, and then take out a mortgage on more favorable terms.
— The results of January traditionally show a low level of sales, which is largely due to long holidays, and this year was aggravated by the decision of banks to introduce a commission for developers when applying for preferential mortgages, as well as changes in mortgage conditions, — comments Tatyana Khalilova, Director of Sales Department GloraX.
According to her, the number of apartment transactions in the primary real estate market of St. Petersburg in January amounted to 1,142, and in February more than twice as many transactions were concluded — 2,477, in March 3,284 apartments were sold, thus, the market revival, traditional for spring, was recorded.
— Interestingly, the results of the first months of last year were absolutely similar — 1,664 in January, 2,477 in February and 3,284 in March, — added Tatyana Khalilova.
The fact that the general trend resembles the first quarter of last year was also noted by Sergey Sofronov, Commercial director of PSK Group: the number of transactions decreased in January and February, then increased significantly in March, but there is a difference that this year the market “sank” more significantly in February.
— If we compare with the previous period, the fourth quarter of 2023, then demand has shrunk, and its structure has also changed: the share of mortgages has decreased and the share of installments has increased,” he commented.
“The main trend at the beginning of 2024 is a slowdown in demand: the number of transactions decreased by 36% compared to the record fourth quarter of 2024,” continued Dmitry Falkin, Vice President of Sales and Service at the RBI Group. — At the same time, demand is 18% higher compared to the first quarter of 2023. Prices in the first quarter stabilized in all market segments, compared to the fourth quarter of last year, the indicators remained virtually unchanged.
He noted that after the change in the terms of preferential mortgage programs, the demand for mortgages decreased: its share in the total number of transactions amounted to 72% (for comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2023 it was 84%) — this is the lowest figure in the last two years. Another significant trend in the demand picture: the share of studios and one-room apartments in the sales structure of the market increased from 59% to 73% over the year.
— The beginning of the year was quite difficult due to a number of factors, — says Sergey Terentyev, Director of the Real Estate Department of the CDU Group. — In particular, the traditionally reduced demand during this period was affected by changes in the conditions for state-backed mortgages, as well as new conditions for issuing subsidized mortgages in a number of banks.
He noted that after easing the conditions for granting preferential mortgages by some banks, demand began to increase.
— In the second half of March, it returned to the forecast level, which allowed us to close the first quarter at a fairly acceptable level, — said Sergey Terentyev.
Jan Feldman, Marketing Director of Lenstroytrest Group, also noted the success of the first quarter: the volume of transactions concluded in the company turned out to be about 30% higher compared to the same period in 2023.
— If we compare with the fourth quarter, there was a slight decrease associated with changes in the conditions for issuing preferential mortgages, — he explained. — However, the market has adapted: the commissions that banks charged developers for issuing loans have disappeared, and demand has recovered. In March, the number of transactions doubled compared to February.
Demand in St. Petersburg increased in the first quarter and for the Aquilon Group by 6%. As Natalia Korotaevskaya, commercial director of the Aquilon Group in St. Petersburg and LO, noted, despite the fact that demand traditionally decreases in January, plus banks announced special loan requirements, demand leveled off in March, and positive dynamics is observed at the end of the quarter.
— The share of mortgage transactions, of course, decreased: by 7% compared to the first quarter of 2023, — she continued. — But already now we see that banks are softening conditions again, so we believe that in the second half of the year the share of mortgage transactions will begin to grow again. Apartment preferences have not changed: studios and studio apartments are still in the lead, and there is also a high demand for Euro-two-room lots in our company.
Maria Orlova, Commercial director of A101 Group of Companies in St. Petersburg, says that compared to the first quarter of 2023, sales in January-March 2024 were 41% higher.
— If we compare with the fourth quarter of 2023, the results are 36% more modest, but taking into account the fact that the market is traditionally “high season” before the New Year, and activity decreases immediately after, the result of the beginning of the year can be considered good, — she believes.
— For the mass market market of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the first quarter of 2024 ended quite successfully: the volume of demand in square meters of housing exceeded the indicators of January-March 2023 by 30%, the number of apartments sold increased by 37%, – summed up Dmitry Efremov, head of the Department of product management and marketing research “Glavstroy St. Petersburg”. — This is generally the expected result that experts predicted: developers and banking players needed to go through an adaptation period caused by the tightening of the Central Bank’s policy and an increase in the key rate. And it was important for buyers to evaluate the updated conditions for the main mortgage programs, to study promotional offers from developers in order to choose a comfortable form of payment for themselves.
According to him, despite the changes and tightening of conditions that took place last year, a mortgage remains the main and most preferred form of payment for everyone who wants to buy an apartment in the St. Petersburg agglomeration. At the same time, the popularity of the State Support program has decreased as expected: if 58% chose it in March 2023, now the share of transactions has decreased to 22%. But the share of “Family mortgage”, on the contrary, increased to 49%. As Dmitry Efremov noted, the IT mortgage turned out to be in demand: in March 2024, 16% of buyers chose it — in March 2023, it was a very modest figure of 3%.
The beginning of the second quarter: stabilization
At the beginning of the second quarter, the situation is generally leveling off, says Natalia Korotaevskaya, so it is expected that the second quarter will be quite stable, and in the second half of the year demand will go up.
Jan Feldman also speaks about some stabilization:
— We do not observe a special increase in consumer activity. But those buyers who took time out to deal with the new conditions in the mortgage market are now back to shopping.
According to Tatyana Khalilova, it is too early to draw conclusions, and in order to assess the dynamics of demand, it is necessary to summarize the results of April.
Sergey Sofronov noted that so far the demand has remained approximately at the level of March, without any sharp deviations.
— The main reason for fluctuations in purchases of new real estate from January to March is precisely that the deferred demand accumulated in January-February is being converted, — he explained. — This is a reaction to a sharp change in the conditions for issuing mass preferential mortgages, plus a certain stimulation by developers of demand through profitable installments.
Maria Orlova believes that it was obvious: the number of interested parties did not decrease compared to the previous quarters of 2023, but the exit to the deal was postponed. Let me remind you that it was during this period that risk factor allowances began to take effect and a more detailed scoring procedure was included, as well as the initial payment increased to 20% on a family mortgage and up to 30% on a mortgage with state support.
— According to observations, people got lost in constantly changing conditions and decided to wait it out, — she believes.
— The deferred demand is noticeable among people who are engaged in the sale of their secondary real estate, — continued Sergey Terentyev. — Due to the fact that mortgage rates in the secondary market are high, the sale process can be delayed for many months. All this time, people have to postpone buying a new apartment on the primary market. This is quite a notable story.
— I don’t think we can talk about large reserves of deferred demand now, — says Jan Feldman. — On the contrary, many buyers who previously postponed the purchase are in a hurry to make it at the current rates of the state library. Otherwise, there is a risk of falling under the changes that will take effect this summer. Let me remind you that the preferential mortgage program at 8% is planned to be canceled, and the parameters of a family mortgage at 6% may be significantly revised.
End of the second quarter: expectation of growth
But if the situation in the mortgage market has relatively stabilized now, then by the end of the second quarter demand will begin to intensify before the termination of the preferential mortgage in its current form, says Maria Orlova.
— In addition, banks are expected to gradually begin to ease conditions, so sales, and with them prices, will begin to rise again. We expect that by the end of the second quarter it will exceed sales figures in January-March by 35-40%,” she added.
— The expectation of the cancellation of preferential mortgages may somewhat warm up the market, but the growth in demand will be short—lived, – Dmitry Falkin believes. — Many customers will rush to conclude deals on favorable terms that are still in force. However, further tightening of the Central Bank’s policy and the expected “reformatting” of preferential mortgages into a number of targeted programs may lead to a reduction in demand in the second half of 2024.
— Traditionally, in the last month before the expected date of cancellation of state support, we observe an increase in consumer activity, as customers fear that the program will be canceled definitively, and make a purchase decision faster, — agrees Tatyana Khalilova. — We expect a repeat of this scenario. Therefore, we predict that the second quarter of this year will be successful in terms of sales, unless new unforeseen circumstances arise.
Sergey Sofronov also expects that demand will grow due to the desire of buyers to have time to take out a preferential mortgage before its cancellation on July 1. Changes, in his opinion, are clearly waiting for the family mortgage, which will be extended — in any case, there are various proposals regarding changes in rates, which will also affect buyers’ decision-making. Consequently, prices will also change in accordance with the growth of demand and sales.
— Now there is a noticeable amount of demand on the market, but we do not see a strong influence of factors — the potential cancellation of the state support program from July 1, changes in conditions for family and IT mortgages – that could spur it even more, — continued Sergey Terentyev. — Perhaps this is due to the fact that many people are used to leaving the solution of non-urgent problems “for later”. The buyers who come to us now are not motivated by possible changes in the mortgage from July 1. Most likely, these factors will begin to manifest themselves in the second half of May. As a rule, buyers become more active a month before the end of government programs.
Dmitry Efremov believes that the expected changes in the composition of preferential mortgage programs really require developers to support consumer demand in every possible way with various discounts and promotional offers. All offers, as a rule, are limited in time and apply to a certain pool of apartments, however, they can make the purchase of an apartment really profitable at the moment.
— In addition, developers offer alternative payment options that could allow the buyer to either collect the necessary down payment, or pay the entire amount for the apartment within a few months: various installments and trade-in programs have appeared, — he added.
— I don’t think that future summer changes will have any significant impact on our company’s sales volumes. After all, we have a more expensive offer compared to competitors, there are many family apartments in the apartment industry, and these lots already do not fit the new limits of state support,” predicts Jan Feldman. — We work on conditions that can be classified as more or less standard, and we ourselves are trying to reduce the financial burden on the buyer. For example, we have a lot of subsidized special programs, we try to maximize (as much as possible) the availability of the initial payment and make payments comfortable during the construction of the house. In short, we strive to be flexible and work on products that stimulate demand.
Photo: Sergey Mikhaylichenko/
Источник: www.fontanka.ru
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