The price gap in the primary and secondary housing markets continues to widen in the Russian Federation

According to the results of the first quarter of 2024, the spread has already reached 55%, according to the materials of the Central Bank. In the fourth quarter of last year, the difference was 44%

В РФ продолжает увеличиваться разрыв цен на первичном и вторичном рынках жилья

According to the Central Bank, in the primary market, the average price of a square increased by 19.4% in the quarter, to 167.6 thousand rubles. In the secondary market, the growth was 11%, and the average price per square meter was 108.1 thousand rubles.

However, it is important to understand that both prices and their difference are average indicators that are very difficult to rely on, says Alexey Popov, head of the CIAN analytical center:

Alexey Popov, head of the CIAN analytical center, “This is Rosstat data that takes into account all prices for all facilities nationwide, and if we have secondary market facilities in all regions, successful locations and not so much, then new buildings are built where there is more money. That is, this ratio is a priori a little unfair, because we compare a phenomenon that is widespread everywhere with a phenomenon that is not widespread everywhere. If we compare prices in individual residential complexes, individual cities, and districts, then there will be no such frightening and attractive figures for journalists. If you cut off luxury real estate in Moscow, then in Moscow the primary will now cost about 400 thousand per square meter, the secondary about 340 thousand rubles per square meter. There is a difference, about 20%, but it is not 40% or 50%. And if we look at the level of individual residential complexes, that is, the task that a specific buyer solves, because the buyer does not buy any abstract apartment in Moscow, but makes a decision based on a specific location, a specific budget, there, as a rule, the difference is measured in units of percent. That is, if we take a large residential complex in Moscow, where there are buildings under construction and already built, there will be an average difference of about 10%, and there are facilities where the initial ratios are fulfilled, when the object under construction does not exist yet, but the object in the secondary is already ready and you can move in, and there is such residential complexes, where facilities under construction are cheaper.”

Nevertheless, the general trend can be caught. Regarding the difference in prices for primary and secondary, this is a trend for a reversal, says Ilya Volodko, CEO of Macon consulting company:

Ilya Volodko, CEO of Macon consulting company, “In the near future, this gap will be narrowing, since the main reason for this spread was the support of preferential mortgage loans from the state. But during the current year, namely from July 1, when the main program for concessional lending in the primary market at 8% ceases to operate, there will be no such activity on the primary market from buyers, and many will involuntarily look at the secondary market as well. This is likely to stop growth in the primary market and possibly even a small increase in prices in the secondary market, which together will reduce the gap between these two segments.”

In total, during the period of the preferential mortgage with state support (since the spring of 2020), housing prices in new buildings have more than doubled in most of the largest cities of Russia, Izvestia reported, citing experts from the company “Floors”.


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