According to experts, the situation in the secondary market is now conducive to its revival and an increase in the number of transactions can hardly be expected before the key rate is lowered. High mortgage rates, competition with the primary market with its concessional lending and a weak supply are hindering
The demand for secondary goods in large cities of the country has decreased and continues to fall in comparison with the figures of February last year. There are also problems with the choice — the number of offers on the market is low and growing slowly, Kommersant writes, citing data from CIAN Analytics.
At the same time, prices in this segment have hardly changed over the past month. In Moscow and Volgograd, the cost of secondary housing increased by 0.1%, in the Moscow region, Voronezh and Omsk — by 0.5%, in Krasnoyarsk and Yekaterinburg — by 0.8%. And in some cities, prices either remained at the same level or decreased — for example, in Samara, Perm, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.
Ilya Volodko, CEO of Macon consulting company, comments on the market situation:
Ilya Volodko, CEO of Macon consulting company, “The secondary housing market in Russia has been in a very difficult dependence on the primary market for the past few years, since the main state programs are preferential, mortgage lending is focused on the primary market. In this sense, the secondary market has lost a lot of customers who have flowed to the primary market, so prices in this market are not growing, that is, there has been a small increase in the last two years, but this growth is very late compared to the primary market. The increase in the key rate, which occurred at the end of last year, further worsened the situation for the secondary market, that is, the rates that currently exist are actually protective, it is impossible to count on a sufficiently large number of transactions in the secondary market without mortgage lending, so now we can say that the market is in a state of cooling, and so far the key the rate will not be lowered, we should not expect demand activity here.”
The main obstacle for buyers remains the high cost of mortgages, which hinders the recovery of demand. Another trend has also emerged — the purchase of real estate for cash.
As for sellers, they are starting to offer discounts to speed up the sale, but there are few of them yet. According to experts, the majority decides to postpone transactions for now in order to keep the value of real estate at the desired level.
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Sergey Vlasenko, President of the Megapolis-Service Corporation of Realtors, speaks about the prospects of the secondary housing market:
— The trend will be clear, that is, it will first stop price growth and gradually lower them, but this is in the dynamics of three or four months, at least, we will be able to see a downward correction in May.
— Will the demand increase from the downward correction of the price?
— No, if we look at the real estate market, 2015, 2016, 2017, these are very small, slow changes, so when prices start to decline, demand cannot grow, because a 2-3-5% decrease in purchasing power relative to real estate prices does not change much. On the contrary, those people who will have money on hand will conclude for themselves: yeah, great, prices have gone down, it’s more profitable for me to stay in the deposit and wait for prices to decrease even more, and during this time I will earn money on the deposit, and then come to the market. Therefore, when buyers realize that prices have gone down, they, on the contrary, will behave even more passively in the market. The entire price correction cycle is still ahead. That is, at first there will be stagnation, when prices do not rise or fall, and this is for several months, and then a smooth acceleration of prices down begins, and the swing stops, when not only prices will decrease by 10-15%, but by that time the Central Bank will lower rates and there will be a deferred demand in which people did not buy, waited and when they come to the market, then the trend of stopping the price drop and a new growth cycle will begin. This has happened several times in our market for 29-30 years, these cycles, and now there will be no other, everything will repeat itself.
According to the data of the Domclick service for the past month, the lowest cost of real estate on the secondary market was recorded in Ingushetia — just over 54 thousand per square meter. Also included in this top ten are the Orenburg, Smolensk, Kurgan and Jewish Autonomous Regions, as well as the Udmurt Republic, Bryansk, Ulyanovsk, Astrakhan regions and Perm Krai.
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