The State Duma says that due to a decrease in mortgage loans due to the cancellation and suspension of preferential programs and high loan rates, housing prices will soon go down. And they even give specific figures: a square meter can fall in price by 30%. But so far there is no collapse in prices
VTB raised the down payment on a family mortgage above 50%. The reason is the reduction of limits, Vedomosti writes. Earlier this week, Sberbank stopped issuing loans under the program, having exhausted all limits.
“Family mortgage” is the most widespread of the existing preferential programs. About 6 trillion rubles have been allocated for it this year, almost everything has already been spent. Some large banks, including the market leader “Sber”, have suspended the issuance of family mortgages. Other banks reported that they had chosen 90% of the limits allocated to them. The remaining funds under the program will be redistributed, but this will not change the overall picture.
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We can say that in fact the family mortgage has been suspended. Of course, VTB can apply for a loan under this program, but a sharp increase in the initial payment will cut off many potential borrowers. Dmitry Rakuta, founder of the Mortgage Brokers Association, real estate expert, continues:
Dmitry Rakuta, founder of the Association of Mortgage Brokers, real Estate expert, “This change to 50% is a kind of suspension of the program, because a large number of potential borrowers will abandon the idea of buying real estate due to the fact that a large amount needs to be obtained somewhere. And now they are announcing that “The House.The Russian Federation” plans to distribute limits on October 10, but it must be understood: this is a redistribution, not the issuance of new subsidies for banks. These are the balances of those funds that have already been used by 80-90% by all banks, and the rest of the banks are on the way.”
That is, by the end of the year, mortgage issuance will be further reduced due to high rates on market loans and the suspension of family mortgages. Which, in theory, should cool demand. This means that housing prices must come in line with market conditions, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma Committee on the financial market, told the Parliamentary Newspaper. In his understanding, this means a drop of 30%. In the summer, against the background of the closure of the preferential mortgage program at 8%, Aksakov predicted a 40% drop in the cost of housing. But neither then nor now is there anything close to it.
This is how Tatyana Khalilova, director of the sales department of the GloraX development company, commented on this:
Tatyana Khalilova, Director of the sales department of the GloraX development company, “As for reducing the cost of real estate in the primary market by 30%, of course not. Now there is not a single premise that, from the developer’s point of view, can even hint at this. In the first half of the year alone, prices for building materials increased by an average of 15%. Second: as an example, aerated concrete, which is used in all new projects, has grown to 20-25% this year. Prices definitely can’t go down. The only thing we will see is spot promotions, offers from developers for certain lots that are not for sale for some reason. Perhaps these will be less liquid layouts that are not popular with buyers.”
In addition to the increase in the cost of building materials, there is another reason that developers will not radically reduce prices, even if they want to, says Victoria Grigorieva, CEO of BEST-Novostroy:
Victoria Grigorieva, CEO of BEST-Novostroy, “Project financing is similarly linked to the key rate. This is the “key” plus, as a rule, 2-3%. And today, the starting price, which developers are now considering in the model, is from 650 thousand per square meter. This is far from a premium segment. As soon as facilities with such prices with a two- to three-year implementation period are launched, what do you think will happen to those who are currently under implementation? They will, of course, immediately raise prices. Therefore, I consider the next statements about some kind of fall to be another provocation that misleads people, which will postpone the purchase. By the way, a lot of people here lament that they sat for a year and waited for that very fall, but in the end they only got a promotion.”
According to the Real Estate Market Indicators portal, the price per square meter in Moscow has hardly changed since mid-summer: as it was about 270 thousand rubles, so it remains. It is clear that this is like the general temperature in the hospital, but still gives a general idea of what is happening. And it seems that no one expects that there will be a noticeable drop in prices in the near future.
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