Low demand for second-hand apartments in the capital will push prices down. However, this will not lead to a significant surge in activity, Inkom-Real Estate predicts
The cost of apartments on the secondary market in Moscow will begin to decrease in the fall of 2024, according to the real estate agency Inkom-Real Estate. The company’s analysts expect a lull in the market until autumn after the cancellation of the preferential mortgage program and rising mortgage rates, which have already reached 19-20%. However, according to the company’s forecasts, the price reduction in autumn will not lead to a significant surge in activity in the capital’s market.
“The ranks of secondary buyers will not be replenished at the expense of those who previously looked at the market of new buildings, but postponed the deal due to the cancellation of preferential mortgages. The reason for switching to the secondary market will not be the fact that new buildings are significantly more expensive,” says Dmitry Taganov, head of the Incom-Real Estate analytical center. The average median cost of the supply of apartments in a new building and in the secondary market of Moscow differ, according to the company, by 56% — 22.2 million rubles versus 14.21 million rubles.
The completion of the preferential mortgage program has put the primary and secondary housing market on almost equal terms.
Since the beginning of 2024, the “square” of the Moscow secondary market has risen in price by only 1.9% (to 284.6 thousand rubles per square meter). The number of apartments for sale has increased by only 6.5%. This is a consequence of low demand. In June, it decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year. “Even with reduced demand, the value of objects in the supply does not decrease,” says Dmitry Taganov, head of the Incom—Real Estate analytical center. — Given the insignificant expansion of the volume of the exposition, we can talk about a lull not only on the part of buyers, but also on the part of sellers. Our forecast remains the same: against the background of falling demand, the price will gradually adjust downward.”
As explained by the director of the Secondary Market direction of Inkom-Real Estate. Sergey Shloma, the reason is that buyers with different motivations are interested in new buildings and secondary housing. “For buyers of new buildings, the absolute price of an apartment is not as important as the monthly mortgage payment. They will be waiting for new preferential opportunities. Secondary buyers are more likely to make alternative deals. They don’t always need a loan or need it for a small amount. The full cost of the apartment is more important to them than mortgage opportunities. The first category can hardly move to the second one en masse,” the expert notes.
The State Duma allowed a significant reduction in prices for new buildings in 2024. Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial market, believes that by the end of the year it may reach 40%, and the market will stabilize in a year.
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