80% of developers have launched various schemes to support sales in Moscow. Developers have prepared various mechanisms to maintain demand — from installments and discounts on individual lots to their own rate subsidy programs and tranche mortgages. But not all special offers are announced on the websites
Two months after the completion of the massive state mortgage program at 8% per annum, the new construction market found itself in new conditions: the share of mortgages in total lending decreased by half in a month, the volume of mortgage loans fell threefold. This predictably affected demand — both initial sales in general and investment transactions fell, the share of which fell to a minimum.
Against this background, developers strive to maximize sales support — in particular, to fill out escrow accounts faster and reduce the cost of project financing. The Central Bank notes the acceleration of the withdrawal of new buildings for sale. But in conditions of high market rates and reduced opportunities for preferential mortgages, developers need to further stimulate buyers.
“Developers use a variety of mechanisms to maintain demand: installments, discounts on individual lots, their own rate subsidy programs, etc.,” comments the expert of CIAN.Analysts” Elena Lapshina, noting that most of these promotions are addressed to a wide range of buyers and are not tied to the composition of the family or profession. The share of such special offers, which, according to the expert, are designed to support demand from potential buyers who do not fall under any of the remaining preferential programs, is 74% (the estimate is based on an analysis of more than 900 promotional offers in 441 residential complexes in 35 regions).
What schemes do developers offer?
This trend is also confirmed by other market participants. Sberbank notes that in the current difficult conditions, the need for borrowed funds from citizens still persists, but this demand is becoming more targeted, and the loan terms are shortening.
Moscow (Photo: Sergey Bulkin / TASS)
“Interest in various mortgage schemes continues to grow, reflecting changes in consumer preferences and the economic situation in the real estate market,” says Dmitry Efimov, Deputy Commercial Director of PIONEER. “A tranche mortgage implies replenishment of an escrow account according to a certain schedule. This solution is used by most developers whose project economics and financial model allow them to work with accredited partner banks,” the expert gives examples. “The scheme with a letter of credit and installments works similarly, which are also actively used by developers.”
Discounts and promotions
According to CIAN, 53% of shares in the market of new buildings in Russia as a whole are direct discounts, 28% are special mortgage conditions, 15% are installments, 4% are gifts from the developer (the last point also includes discounts on non—residential premises and finishing).
Promotions for all buyers
“In general, about 80% of developers have proposed various schemes to maintain sales in the Moscow region market. These are mostly large developers. The most common program is installments, which are offered by about 70% of developers,” says Ilya Vitkovsky, Vice President of Sales and Marketing at DOGMA IC. “It has worked for many before, but with the restrictions it has received a new impetus.”
Founder of the Best-New Building company and the platform bnMAP.pro Irina Dobrokhotova estimates the share of installments in new buildings in Moscow at 60%. “However, at high stages of construction readiness, there is no point in installments, since it is given before permission for commissioning,” the expert recalls. According to Dobrokhotova, there is also an increase in schemes with a letter of credit, about ten more developers provide such an option as a tranche mortgage. “Basically, subsidizing from the developer is the most popular way to reduce the payment,” the expert concludes.
“Since July 1, about 20% of large developers have offered tranche mortgage programs to clients,” Ilya Vitkovsky shares his assessment. “It is implemented mainly with leading banks.” Borrowers use this program because it allows them to reduce the payment in the first months of the mortgage, the expert explains. Subsequently, with a decrease in key and stabilization of market rates, such borrowers expect to be over—credited.
The head of “CYANOGEN.Analysts” Alexey Popov draws attention to the fact that the vast majority of developers have certain sales schemes that stimulate demand in conditions of prohibitively high mortgage rates. But a more accurate assessment is complicated by the fact that not all developers report on their websites about the entire range of special offers. “Some of the schemes can be voiced in sales offices during substantive communication with the buyer,” he explains. — This was done due to the ambiguous verbal interventions of the Central Bank, whose representatives announced their intention to fight non-standard mortgage schemes. At the same time, it is still unclear to what extent this signal is the “last warning”, therefore, the nature of informing the audience about such opportunities differs from company to company.”
The Central Bank’s attitude to gray schemes
Various schemes for the sale of new buildings have long been of concern to the Central Bank. At the end of July, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that the regulator would fight various schemes that flourished in the housing market against the background of the completion of the preferential mortgage program with state support. “Before the completion of the broad preferential program, these schemes flourished again with renewed vigor. What is not there: installments, so-called cashback, and very preferential rates. But behind all these lures there is either an overestimation of the price of the apartment, or a sharp increase in payments subsequently. And all this is opaque and confusing for people,” Elvira Nabiullina said.
Trade-in
Trade-in is also presented among the special offers, adds Dmitry Efimov from PIONEER. The expert also names rent-to-buy as single offers. Irina Dobrokhotova also mentions programs involving co-borrowers, including from among the privileged categories. “So far, they are found with a minimum number of developers. The scheme is not very popular, because, for example, with a family mortgage, this co—borrower loses the right to independently use the family mortgage until this loan is closed or another child is born,” she explains.
Promotions for a limited number of customers
CIAN notes that 26% of the shares are addressed to only a part of the buyers. More than half of them are associated with additional conditions for family and IT programs (the latter does not work in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but is available in the Moscow region and the Leningrad region). “This is a reduced rate or a low down payment, and in some cases its absence,” analysts say. — Developers additionally subsidize mortgage rates, reducing them from 6% to 3-4% (sometimes lower) for the entire loan term or for the first year.”
Photo: Maxim Shipenkov / EPA / TASS
Other targeted support options include discounts for employees of certain professions (military personnel, including members of the military, teachers, medical workers, etc.), as well as discounts and special mortgage conditions for large families and those who use maternity capital. There are also support measures for residents of other regions, buyers from affected regions or those who have a residence permit in a certain location, for repeat buyers or for those who came on a recommendation. “In addition, there are promotions for newlyweds, salary clients and employees of certain banks,” the CIAN adds.
Preferential mortgages remain the main driver of demand
In general, the company’s experts conclude, against the background of changes in mortgage programs in Moscow, the volume of new products from developers has sharply decreased, while the volume of active supply, on the contrary, has increased — both due to lower sales and due to the withdrawal of stocks in buildings under construction.
The main tool for maintaining sales remains the family program, the surveyed market participants agree. “Mortgage lending in conditions of tight PREP will be supported by an updated family mortgage program,” said Kirill Tsarev, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank. “The main driver of sales in the mass housing segment has been and will remain a family mortgage. Now our main task is to calculate different economic models in order to make mortgage payments available to customers for whom a family mortgage turned out to be unavailable,” says Ilya Vitkovsky.
“The market is now in a period of adaptation to a new reality — working without a preferential mortgage. Those developers who have started to develop options in advance to maintain demand are in a better position compared to those who have not done so. However, some full-fledged conclusions about how this adaptation is going will be possible only in the autumn, since in the last two years the market needs two to three months for “acclimatization” — getting used to new conditions,” concludes Irina Dobrokhotova.