39% of the lots were sold in premium new buildings in Moscow, and only 22% of the lots in elite ones — this is the conclusion reached by the experts of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro . And NF Group has updated the “million index”: today, for a conditional 100 million rubles in the capital, you can buy only 61 elite square meters — less than ever
The task of the research conducted recently by the experts of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro Firstly, it consisted in determining the volume of unsold high-budget housing in the capital: it turned out that at the moment it is 61% in premium new buildings, 78% in elite ones. The second goal is to calculate the speed at which high—budget projects of the primary market will be sold under neutral and negative scenarios of further developments. As emphasized in bnMAP.pro For the correctness of calculations, the study included projects under construction that are sold under the DDA and have been on the market for more than 12 months.
It turned out that with the implementation of a neutral scenario (that is, while maintaining the current sales rate), premium new buildings will be realized in six years and one month, and elite ones in nine years and two months. But if the scenario turns out to be negative, suggesting a 30% decrease in sales rates, premium properties will have to be sold for about eight years and eight months, and elite ones for 13 years and one month.
“The minimum implementation period in high—price segment projects is about a year – this applies to those complexes where there are consistently high sales rates and a small amount of project balances. The maximum estimated period is about 57 years: such an indicator is possible in large expensive projects where sales rates are low, and in the execution of a negative scenario associated with a general decrease in sales speed,” explains the founder of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro and the company “BEST-Novostroy” Irina Dobrokhotova (In fairness, we note that the terrifying 57 years is an indicator related to only one specific metropolitan project that is not for sale at all).
Irina Dobrokhotova founder of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro and the BEST-New Building company should add that by the end of June, the following price and supply indicators were recorded in the elite segment of Moscow new buildings. The average cost per square meter in an elite new building is 1932.2 thousand rubles: it has hardly changed in a month, but it has fallen in price by 28% over the year. The average lot price for the year decreased even more noticeably, by 42% — to 247.2 million rubles. The decrease in prices is mainly caused by the release of a noticeable volume of new supply, now these buildings are in the initial stages. At the moment, about 38% of elite new buildings in Moscow are on a zero cycle of work (31% a year ago), about 27% are at the stage of installation and finishing works (35% a year ago), construction of about 6% has not begun (less than 1% a year ago). At the stage of obtaining a permit for commissioning or already commissioned, this is 11% of the offer (a year ago — 18%). And another thing: about 20% of the elite offer relates to reconstructed facilities, and a year ago there were only 8% of such facilities.”
“The indicator of the sale of apartments in the premium segment of new buildings in Moscow must be considered comprehensively and take into account certain features of the high—budget housing market,” Anatoly Dovgan, director of the Market Monitoring and evaluation Department at Intermark Urban Real Estate, continues his reasoning on the given topic.
Anatoly Dovgan, Director of the Market Monitoring and Evaluation Department at Intermark Urban Real Estate, “Firstly, it is important to take into account that among the 56 projects on sale and with the start of sales more than 12 months ago, half can be attributed to club houses, the sales rate in which, of course, in absolute value will always be more restrained compared to large-scale construction. This pace is offset by prices: in clubhouses, the current average price level is about 40% higher than the average price for the entire high-budget housing market. With an average size of such a project of 23 apartments, any two or three transactions will reduce the volume of supply by 10-13%. We have already seen a similar rapid reduction in available balances for sale in 2020-2021. Secondly, elite houses that are put into operation and sold under purchase and sale agreements often disappear from the field of view of analysts. A fairly significant part of the target audience of such a market segment considers buying only ready-made apartments, in this regard, often in new building projects at least 20-25% remains ready for sale to customers who are willing to pay the maximum price premium for the finished product. There are recent examples when 20% of the project was sold during construction, and the remaining 80% was realized in a short six months after the house was 100% ready.”
Thirdly, the expert recalls, the geography of the premium market has always been conservative, and the main development product is formed precisely in the central districts of the city, or rather, even in certain popular locations. For example, if we now consider the remains of apartments in new buildings of Khamovniki, the figure is about 45%. A difficult situation is developing, for example, in the area of Patriarchal Ponds: there are only two projects for sale with single apartments to choose from. The liquidity of the area among buyers has always been high, but the volume of supply is limited.
“Fourthly, the indicator of balances “at the moment” is often distorted by new volumes of supply, that is, when a new queue goes into implementation within one LCD, the percentage of balances instantly becomes high, which distorts the average figures. Although the launch of a new volume in a sought—after project is usually a good opportunity for buyers rather than negative statistics,” Anatoly Dovgan sums up.
Since we are talking about luxury real estate, it is worth mentioning another study: NF Group analyzed the price dynamics* for elite residential real estate in Moscow (according to the company’s classification, apartments and apartments of premium and deluxe classes belong to the elite segment) and updated the “million index”, which tracks how many square meters can be to buy in the capital for a conditional 100 million rubles. It turns out that for the period from June 2023 to June 2024, the index decreased by 7%, to the lowest ever figure of 61 square meters with an increase in the weighted average price, which again exceeded 1.63 million rubles per square meter.
In relation to the districts, the alignment is as follows. In the very basement of this conditional rating are the Danilovsky, Donskoy and Dorogomilovo districts, in which 100 million rubles will be enough to buy serious 104, 103 and 92 square meters, respectively. In the middle there are, for example, Zamoskvorechye and Tagansky with indicators of 75 and 68 squares. The very top is Yakimanka (40 square meters), Tverskoy district (39 square meters) and Ostozhenka-Prechistenka (32 square meters).
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