Experts do not expect mortgage rates to decrease to 10-12% before 2025

A reduction in mortgage rates to 10-12%, acceptable for a larger number of potential home buyers, can be expected no earlier than the middle to the end of 2025, predicts Maria Orlova, commercial director of A101 Group in St. Petersburg. According to her, in 2024 they will not fall below 15%.

Now, according to her, banks and developers are developing and launching mortgage programs with low rates for the construction period (a year or two) — they can range from 0.11% to 3% per annum. There are also programs with a rate of 3.5% for the entire period, but most often the rates are then raised to the current ones at the time of signing the contract, i.e. up to 19-21%. “According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, the key rate will decrease by that time and the mortgage can be refinanced,” Maria Orlova explained.

The market also expects the release of new targeted government support programs in the near future — for doctors, teachers or young professionals,

Meanwhile, real estate prices continue to rise, and it is not necessary to expect that a decrease in demand after the end of the preferential mortgage will reduce them, the expert believes. First of all, this is due to the increase in the cost of construction and the need to coordinate the financial model with banks.

“Since January 2024, the cost of building materials has increased by an average of 25%. In addition, the services of construction crews have risen in price by 10-25% year on year. In the second half of the year, prices are expected to rise by 20-40% for metal fittings, cement, glass, drywall and ceramic tiles. In such conditions, no bank will agree on a reduction in the cost per square meter,” Maria Orlova complained.

According to her, since the beginning of 2024 in the Leningrad region, the cost of a meter has increased by 4.6%, to 155 thousand rubles, and the average cost of apartments — by 3.1%, to 7.2 million rubles. At the same time, the average cost of a “square” in St. Petersburg exceeded 248 thousand rubles, and the average cost of an apartment was 12.9 million. This leads to a flow of demand to the Leningrad region, she noted.

Источник: www.fontanka.ru