Until spring, the opposite trend was observed — refusals were growing. For example, in February, the share of refusals in the mortgage market as a whole was 56%, and in the market of new buildings — 65%, the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) told RBC-Real Estate
Russian banks have become more likely to approve mortgages to borrowers. The share of mortgage refusals decreased by 12 percentage points from January to May 2024 and amounted to 44%. Such data was provided by the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) at the request of RBC-Real Estate.
According to the NBCI, the decline in the share of refusals has been observed since March. Then the figure dropped to 52%. In April, the trend continued — the indicator decreased by 5 percentage points, to 47%, and by the end of May — to 44%. The increase in the approval level is noted both in the secondary market and in the market of new buildings. If in January the share of mortgage refusals for ready-made housing was 50%, by May it had decreased by 10 percentage points, to 40%. In the market of new buildings, the decline in the rejection rate is noticeably even stronger — by 12 percentage points. So, in January, 69% of potential borrowers wishing to purchase a new building were refused. By the end of May, this happened only with every second (49%).
Dynamics of mortgage refusals in January — May 2024
| Period | The share of mortgage refusals in the secondary housing market | The share of mortgage refusals in the market of new buildings | The share of mortgage refusals in the whole market |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2024 | 50% | 69% | 56% |
| February 2024 | 52% | 65% | 56% |
| March 2024 | 47% | 59% | 52% |
| April 2024 | 41% | 53% | 47% |
| May 2024 | 40% | 49% | 44% |
Data: NBKI
Mortgage brokers of the federal company “Floors” note the high level of approval of mortgage loans. “Surprisingly, even with such high market mortgage rates (17-20%), the approval rate remains at a fairly high level. If 57.4% were approved in May, 56.7% in June, while in July the approval rate is at the level of 54.9%,” said Tatyana Reshetnikova, deputy head of the mortgage department of the federal company Etagi. Analysts of the IT company TYMY confirmed the high level of approval, which on the platform in June-July stands at 46%.
Why has the approval rate increased?
Experts note the reduction in mortgage refusals by a general decrease in demand for it and stricter requirements from the banks themselves against the background of regulatory measures by the Central Bank. “We see a downward trend in the share of refusals to issue mortgages from banks. This is largely due to the fact that the Bank of Russia has been taking active measures to cool the mortgage market since last year (with the help of macroprudential measures, an increase in the minimum down payment, etc.),” explained Alexey Volkov, Marketing Director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) to RBC-Real Estate.
According to him, because of this, now you can see, first of all, “good” borrowers on the market. “Since citizens with a high debt burden and a down payment of less than 30% are washed out of the incoming flow of applicants,” Alexey Volkov added. The high level of approval is due to the fact that the increased rates have reduced the share of borrowers with low down payments and income levels, Tatyana Reshetnikova confirmed.
“We will not discount the desire of borrowers to have time to get a loan on a preferential mortgage of 8% by July 1 and, accordingly, banks to have time to approve more such loans from “good” borrowers,” Alexey Volkov summed up.
Since July 1, 2024, the preferential mortgage program with state support for new buildings at 8% (“State Support 2020”) has stopped working in Russia. In addition, the parameters of the family mortgage should be adjusted. So far, it is known that the 6% rate will remain for families with children under six years old. Against the background of these changes, demand for mortgages increased sharply in June. According to VTB estimates, by the end of June, mortgage issuance in Russia could amount to 780 billion rubles, an increase of more than 45% by May and almost a quarter by June 2023. From the second half of the year, the mortgage market will cool down, VTB predicts. The bank’s analysts expect the largest reduction in sales in July-August: by about a quarter by June.
English 
Russian 
German 
Polish