According to Domclick, the price gap between the center and the periphery is decreasing in the secondary real estate market in most of the largest regions of the country, although it still remains significant and ranges from 18% to 64%. The reverse situation is only in one subject of the Russian Federation, and for obvious reasons
Domclick analysts have studied the June announcements on the sale of secondary housing in regions with cities of millions*. In each reviewed subject of the Russian Federation, ads were divided into two groups: ads in the administrative center of the region and outside it. The median cost per square meter and its change from June 2023 were calculated for both groups. Additionally, analysts studied the volume of the offer in each subject. Here are just a few of the final figures given in the study.
The maximum difference in the cost of central and peripheral housing was noted in the Omsk region — 63.8%. Such a large gap is explained by the fact that in addition to Omsk, there are simply no other large cities in the region: 1.1 million people live in the administrative center, and the second largest city of Tara is no more than 30 thousand inhabitants. A significant price gap was also recorded in the Sverdlovsk Region (54.2%) and the Moscow region (50.2%). And the smallest difference is in Voronezh (18.4%), Volgograd (21.1%) and Samara (25.8%) regions.
Among the largest Russian regions, there is only one in which real estate on the periphery is more expensive, and more expensive by an impressive 53.2%. It is not difficult to guess that this is the Krasnodar Territory, in whose numerous resort cities (Sochi, Gelendzhik, Anapa and others) there are many expensive housing that attracts both end buyers and investors. By the way, a similar situation is observed in the regional country market, where the offer prices are also higher in resort towns, and not in Krasnodar.
In general, over the past year, the gap in the median cost per square meter in most of the largest regions of the country has narrowed. The greatest convergence of the center and the periphery is observed in Voronezh (by 7 percentage points — up to 18.4%), Volgograd (by 6.9 percentage points — up to 21.1%) and Rostov (by 5.2 percentage points — up to 32.7%) regions.
At the same time, in five regions (only in five or in five at once — who estimates this indicator), this gap has increased. Including in both capitals: Moscow broke away from the Moscow region by another 3.3 percentage points, and St. Petersburg from the Leningrad region — even by 4.5 percentage points. “This dynamic is due to the outpacing growth rates of the cost of secondary housing in both capitals compared to the surrounding areas. So, in Moscow, a square meter has risen in price by 10.5% over the year, and in the Moscow region — only by 3.7%. In St. Petersburg, the price per square meter increased by 4.1%, and in the Leningrad region it decreased by 2.3%,” the study says.
As of June 2024, in most of the largest regions, more than 50% of ads on the secondary market are in administrative centers. The Omsk Region has become the undisputed leader in terms of the share of the central offer: 97.1% of the region’s apartments are for sale in Omsk. Also, a high percentage of ads from secondary owners in the center of the region can be found in Novosibirsk (86.5%) and Volgograd (74.7%) regions. The lowest rates are recorded in the Republic of Bashkortostan (42.6%) and the Chelyabinsk Region (45.7%), as well as in the Krasnodar Territory (47%).
Interestingly, the metropolitan regions differ greatly from each other in terms of the distribution of supply between the center and the periphery. “If 70.9% of offers are placed in St. Petersburg (of the total number of ads in the city and the Leningrad region), then in Moscow — 48.2% (of the total number of ads in the capital and the Moscow region). This feature of Moscow is partly a consequence of the growing interest of developers in the Moscow region market: by the end of 2023, the developer, who took the first place in terms of the number of transactions, has the most successful projects not in Moscow, but in the region,” Domklik experts emphasize.
By the way, according to the rating of cities in the Moscow region by the cost of apartments* of the analytical center “Indicators of the real estate market IRN.ru “at the beginning of the summer of 2024, the most affordable housing in the secondary market of the Moscow region is offered in Shatura, Kashira, Kolerye, Yegoryevsk and Kurovsky. So, today, the secondary market in Shatura costs an average of 78,261 rubles per square meter, which is 0.9% higher than a month ago; in Kashira and Necklace, average prices per square meter are 81,607 rubles (plus 0.2% per month), and in Yegoryevsk and Kurovsky — 83,766 rubles (minus 0.7%).
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Voskresensk was also among the most affordable cities near Moscow, with an average cost of 85,105 rubles per residential meter (zero dynamics per month). This is followed by Volokolamsk (89,396 rubles, plus 1.4%), Orekhovo-Zuyevo and Pavlovsky Posad (97,961 rubles, plus 0.1%), Mikhnevo, Malino, Verzilovo (99,237 rubles, minus 1%), Mozhaysk, Ruza, Tuchkovo (99,436 rubles, plus 0.7%), Serpukhov (102,587 rubles, plus 0.5%), Noginsk, Chernogolovka (102,633 rubles, minus 0.1%).
In all these cities, a square meter of housing will cost buyers less than the average in the region. By the end of May, the average price of a square near Moscow was 154,450 rubles (minus 0.1% per month).
As for Moscow, according to calculations by Est-a-Tet*, by the end of the second quarter of 2024, prices for the capital’s secondary market continue to go up, but the growth rate is gradually decreasing. Thus, the weighted average offer price in New Moscow increased by 0.8% in the quarter, to 236 thousand rubles per square meter (plus 7.6% per year). In the old borders of Moscow, the result of the quarter is plus 1.7%, up to 524.9 thousand rubles per square meter, and in annual dynamics the increase is 15.8%.
“At the same time, the dynamics of prices in the districts for the quarter was multidirectional: in the Central Administrative District and the Southern Administrative District, prices practically did not change, in the Central Administrative District and the Southern Administrative District, the weighted average supply price decreased by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. In the remaining six districts, there was an increase in prices: from 0.6% in the CAO to 4.5% in the CAO. In annual terms, the price level has increased in all districts without exception, the increase varies from 7.4% (CAO) to 21.6% (CAO),” the company’s analysts note.
However, the third quarter begins with the milestone of July 1 — the date of the cardinal restructuring of the preferential mortgage system. We’ll see how soon and exactly how this will affect the secondary market.
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