Experts have estimated how many facilities in Moscow will be subject to the increased tax

According to Consul Group, after the adoption of the amendments, the tax will increase by 488 rubles per 1 sq. m. real estate, and the budget of Moscow will be replenished by about 26 billion rubles

About 4.9 thousand objects of individuals and legal entities, whose cadastral value exceeds 300 million rubles, will fall under the increase in property tax in Moscow. Due to this, Moscow’s budget may be replenished by 26 billion rubles. Such data was provided by the law firm Consul Group at the request of RBC-Real Estate.

On July 10, the State Duma adopted a law that provides for an increase in the tax burden on expensive real estate from 2025, the cadastral value of which exceeds 300 million rubles. On July 15, the document was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the amendments, the regions will be able to increase tax rates on such facilities from 2% to 2.5%. In this regard, analysts at Consul Group have calculated how much real estate may fall under the planned increase.

As they thought

Analysts using the Ownex platform analyzed the entire list of objects (over 37.9 thousand) in Moscow, the tax on which is paid according to the cadastral value, and selected those not subject to an increase in the rate from 2% to 2.5%. The Consul Group also estimated an average tax increase of 1 sq.m. m and calculated the amount of tax that will go to the budget of Moscow after the adoption of the amendments.

According to the Consul Group, a total of 4,983 objects with a total area of 53.4 million square meters fall under the increase in the tax on expensive property.:

A) 3218 buildings that have a copyright holder. If the building is divided into rooms, then it falls into item B;

B) 1,656 premises in buildings included in the list of objects for which tax is paid at cadastral value;

C) 109 premises in residential buildings, the tax on which is calculated according to the cadastral value.

According to experts, on average, after the adoption of the amendments, the tax will increase by 488 rubles per 1 sq. m. m of real estate. “That is, for the owner of a room with an area of 2 thousand square meters, the amount of tax in 2025 will increase by about 976 thousand rubles per year to the amount he will pay for 2024,” explained Sergey Pivovarchik, managing partner of Consul Group. “If Moscow accepts these edits at the regional level in 2025, the budget will be replenished by about 26 billion rubles,” the expert added.

How will this affect the market

The increase in taxes will lead to an increase in the cost of maintaining real estate and a decrease in the revenue side of the business, explains Sergey Pivovarchik. “For those who use real estate as efficiently as possible, I do not think that an increase in tax will significantly affect profitability,” the expert believes. “But for those who have a high vacancy rate combined with an increase in income tax, such changes will be noticeable,” he added.

300 million rubles is a fairly low threshold, so a significant part of commercial facilities will be affected, added Denis Platov, head of the Capital Markets Department at Nikoliers. Most of the objects cost less than 300 million rubles. They are exempt from paying property tax due to the simplified taxation system (USN), the expert explained. In his opinion, the owners of commercial real estate will shift the increase in property tax to tenants for more than 300 million rubles. “All other things being equal, the factor of increasing the property tax from 2% to 2.5% will lead to an increase in rental rates by 3-5% if the cadastral value is the basis for calculating the tax,” believes the head of the capital Markets department Nikoliers.

As for the residential segment, according to NF Group estimates, about 430 apartments and apartments worth over 300 million rubles are currently represented in the primary luxury housing market in Moscow, which is about 16% of the total supply structure in elite new buildings in the capital. Most of these lots are concentrated in the de luxe class – about 70%, respectively. By district, a third of the high-budget proposal worth more than 300 million rubles is concentrated in the Yakimanka district, where Lavrushinsky luxury residential complex, Armani/Casa Moscow Residences, DUO, etc. are being implemented.

“Of course, along with the tax increase, some buyers will be more careful when making a purchase decision. In this case, it should be borne in mind that clients prioritize the possible total costs associated with owning real estate, which in this case may increase,” says Andrey Solovyov, partner at NF Group.

However, in the high segment there are always buyers, including buyers of “trophy real estate”, for whom the quality of the object, its location and signification are paramount — in this case, the cost increase is not critical, he added.

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