The increase in the key rate and the cancellation of preferential mortgages — these circumstances primarily affect the St. Petersburg construction market now. But despite this, developers continue to build (about 60% of the plan agreed with the Ministry of Construction has already been introduced) and bring new facilities to the market, hoping that there will still be demand. These are the results of a survey conducted by Fontanka on the eve of Builder’s Day, which this year is celebrated on August 11.
Igor Kreslavsky, Chairman of the Construction Committee, told Fontanka that this year the city adheres to the planned indicators for housing commissioning: “Of the planned 2.65 million square meters. more than 1.6 million (or 60%) have already been introduced — by all indicators, it is clear that the annual plan will be fulfilled.”
According to him, the decrease in the planned volume of commissioning compared to last year is due to the fact that due to active residential construction in previous years, the city faced a heavy burden on infrastructure. Therefore, in the plan for housing commissioning in St. Petersburg, approved as part of the implementation of the federal Housing project, it provides for more modest indicators.
At the same time, Igor Kreslavsky noted that now the construction of social facilities has gained a good pace: this year it is planned to introduce about 100 facilities, of which 39 were built according to the Targeted investment program, and the rest by developers. “In just five years, about 400 social facilities were built — this is the result of the joint work of the entire construction complex,” Igor Kreslavsky added. — Thus, one of the main problems of St. Petersburg in recent years, related to the shortage of social infrastructure, has been practically eliminated. Now schools and kindergartens are being built without forcing, in a planned manner, in parallel with the construction of housing.” He stressed that this shows the effectiveness of the work of the Urban Planning Commission: when implementing housing projects, all social obligations on the part of construction companies are fulfilled in full and on time. As a result, the number of new social facilities built at the expense of investors has increased significantly.
The general situation in the real estate market at the beginning of 2024 clearly showed that in today’s realities, given the high key rate of the Central Bank, the real estate market is highly dependent on government support.
— One of the most significant events of the real estate market in recent months has been the cancellation of the main preferential mortgage program from July 1, which served as a powerful incentive for the development of the country’s construction complex, — says Alexander Vakhmistrov, NOSTRA coordinator for St. Petersburg, President of the Association of Builders of St. Petersburg. — At the same time, world experience shows that it is more appropriate in such cases to apply point subsidization of mortgages on a territorial or individual basis. Therefore, some of the programs remain relevant today, namely, rural mortgages, Far Eastern mortgages, mortgages for new regions of Russia, for large families, for families of participants in their own and a number of others.
Among the positive aspects, Alexander Vakhmistrov noted the current constructive interaction between the federal government and the regional construction community.
“The successful combination of federal and regional policies, intentions and business opportunities, when budget and investment construction go hand in hand, is satisfying,” he added.
— Preferential mortgages have remained the driver of the market for several years, therefore, among the key events that negatively affected it, it is worth highlighting the completion of the state program on July 1, and among the positive ones — the extension of the family mortgage program on updated terms, — said Tatyana Khalilova, director of the GloraX sales department.
State-backed mortgages supported the construction industry during the pandemic and were initially introduced as a temporary measure, he recalledDmitry Efremov, Head of the Department of Product Management and Marketing Research at Glavstroy St. Petersburg.
“It managed to have a positive impact, so its completion in 2024 became quite natural and expected,— he says. — Thus, the affordability of housing in new megalopolises attracted nonresident buyers: for example, the share of Glavstroy St. Petersburg regional clients who purchased apartments in our Yuntolovo and Severnaya Dolina projects increased from 29% to 35% in 2020. And the figure of 30-35% has become an average value for the St. Petersburg real estate market in 2024: the share of individual developers in sales reaches 60%.
Dmitry Efremov says that the extension of the family mortgage is generally assessed positively: from July 1 to July 18, 2024, 57% of buyers of apartments in Glavstroy St. Petersburg projects chose a family mortgage as the preferred form of payment.
— Despite the change in conditions and even greater targeting, the program still allows many Russians to purchase their homes profitably, – he noted. — But unfortunately, raising the key rate to 18% will have a negative impact on the construction industry. On the one hand, this will lead to an increase in the cost of construction and deter the start of new projects. On the other hand, only buyers with stable high incomes who have savings to make a large down payment will be able to take out a mortgage.
— In St. Petersburg, construction volumes are really shrinking: relative to the results of the first half of 2023, the offer in comfort and business class decreased by 5%, – said Eduard Tiktinsky, president of the RBI. — The reasons are the lack of building sites, and multi—stage chains of approvals in the central areas of the city, often tied to providing future residents with social infrastructure. These are difficult issues, and at RBI we are currently solving them on several of our promising projects at once.
At the same time, the company still does not consider the Leningrad region as an alternative — the traditional districts of St. Petersburg remain a priority.
Maria Orlova, Commercial Director of A101 Group in St. Petersburg, also considers the termination of the state-backed mortgage program and the change in family mortgage conditions to be the most significant event for the market since July 1.
— The extension of the family mortgage until 2030, despite its transformation and the deterioration of conditions for the markets of the St. Petersburg and Moscow agglomeration, is, in my opinion, rather positive news: it gives us the opportunity for long—term planning, which was lacking in our market,” she added. — And the decision to terminate the mortgage program with state support at 8% will have a negative impact on the market — this year the sales structure accounted for about 35-45%. Another negative factor is that the key rate has been above 15% for more than six months.
From the positive news, Maria Orlova names active steps to strengthen the transport framework of the St. Petersburg agglomeration. The Latitudinal Highway of High—speed Traffic (SHMSD) is in active development – in early July, the timing and cost of construction of the II-IV stages of the project were determined, and the KAD-2 project is also developing. For the A101 Group of Companies project in Lagolovo, the launch of a clocked electric train program turned out to be a useful initiative — a similar program is being worked out for Vsevolozhsk.
— Since mortgages are the main tool for buying an apartment in the primary market, the increase in the Central Bank rate has changed the economic landscape of the market, — continued Natalia Korotaevskaya, commercial director of the Aquilon Group in St. Petersburg and LO. — Mortgages outside subsidized programs have ceased to be attractive to customers. The second important change is the expected cancellation of state—backed mortgages. Preferential mortgages have become more targeted, they are aimed at supporting families with children. Such a decision will affect the structure of demand, for example, there will be fewer purchases of “investment” apartments.
— Demand shows extreme sensitivity to the size of the down payment and monthly payments, — explained Ekaterina Nemchenko, Commercial director of the holding “RST”. — Repeated tightening of conditions and, eventually, the expiration of preferential mortgage programs provoked waves of hyped demand, which were replaced in July by a recession and a noticeable decrease in sales volumes. Repeated increases in the key rate have led to high project financing costs and unaffordable mortgage conditions. The market has already faced the impact of these factors, and in the near future it will be necessary to look for ways to solve the current situation. Difficulties in the labor market also affect the work of developers.
At the same time, she noted that the high competition in the construction market forces developers to work seriously on the product, increasing comfort and introducing new options.
Sergey Sofronov, Commercial Director of PSK Group As events that had a positive impact on the industry in 2024, he noted that preferential mortgage programs lasted until the middle of the year. Also, among the external factors that positively affect construction, he called the growth of industrial production, and not only heavy. A negative factor was the key rate, more precisely, its value at a level when project financing and mortgages remain expensive.
— In this context, the revision of preferential mortgages has a much more negative impact on the market than it could be, — he believes.
In search of balance
Although the main events in the market are called changes in the state support system, they will affect sales already in the second half of the year, and the builders completed the first one very successfully.
— The first half of the year and the second are, by and large, two different markets, — says Sergey Sofronov. — Buyers have radically changed the terms of purchase, the balance of supply and demand, respectively, too. But, given that the supply in St. Petersburg tends to decrease, this balance will approximately be maintained.
Thus, demand in the St. Petersburg agglomeration increased by 48% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the St. Petersburg Real Estate Consulting Center.
— From January to June, more than 44 thousand transactions were concluded, — said Olga Trosheva, director of the St. Petersburg Real Estate Center (Setl Group). — This trend was due to the expectation of the completion of the mortgage program of state support and the upcoming changes in the terms of the family mortgage.
At the same time, the volume of supply in the primary market for the year (from June 2023) decreased by 10% and by the end of the half-year amounted to 3.6 million square meters. m. As for prices, according to Olga Trosheva, in St. Petersburg, the average supply prices in the mass market class have increased by 5.1% since the beginning of the year, to 247 thousand rubles (+12 thousand rubles per square meter), while in the Leningrad region — by 1.6%, to 149 thousand rubles per square meter (+2.4 thousand rubles per square meter).
— Housing sales in the primary market of St. Petersburg in the 1st half of 2024 increased by 20% compared to the same period last year, — Tatyana Khalilova confirmed. — Therefore, it can be argued that the balance of supply and demand in the market of the Northern capital has been maintained. At the same time, we are witnessing an increasing interest of buyers in projects in the Leningrad region. There are several reasons for this trend — the cost per square meter of real estate in the Leningrad region is on average 40% lower than in St. Petersburg, conditions for the implementation of large-scale projects for developers are quite attractive, the region has good prospects for the development of transport infrastructure. All this causes demand to flow smoothly from St. Petersburg to the neighboring region.
Maria Orlova also speaks about the trend towards the flow of supply and demand from St. Petersburg to the Leningrad region:
— Supply and demand are interconnected here. There are suitable sites in the region for integrated territorial development (CDT) projects, whereas there are almost none left in the city. At the same time, it is the KRT projects in the region that are most in demand among buyers now: they offer them a fairly high level of comfort and social environment at a cost sometimes two times lower than in the city, with a comparable housing class.
Dmitry Efremov noted that relative to 2023, the first half of 2024 showed an increase in demand of about 50%, but due to the increase in the key rate and the cancellation of state-backed mortgages, it is obvious that the mass market will exist in the next few months in conditions of limited demand.
— Supply and demand in the St. Petersburg market are in dynamic equilibrium, — Natalia Korotaevskaya believes. — The first six months, thanks to a flexible sales policy and high demand, were quite successful, during the period of uncertainty — the first weeks after the cancellation of the mortgage with state support — buyers withstood a pause, but now stable demand is returning. The development of the market situation coincides with the calculations of our analytical department, so our plans as a developer remain the same.
Ekaterina Nemchenko added that as a result of active sales in the first half of the year, the supply in urban projects has significantly decreased on the market.
“Against the background of a reduction in the launch of new projects, this is becoming noticeable,” she says. — At the beginning of the year, the pace of studio sales decreased, demand shifted to the one-room apartment segment, but since spring, studios have regained their positions in the sales structure. Despite the termination of preferential mortgage programs, market participants noted high activity in applications in July, demand has not fallen, there is a need for housing. We need tools that allow us to purchase housing in new buildings.
New projects
In a situation where demand is declining, it can be expected that developers will slow down the introduction of new facilities to the market. But here everyone has their own position.
— Artificially “holding back” starts now, in terms of project financing, it is definitely unprofitable for developers, — Eduard Tiktinsky is sure. — Moreover, those developers who are putting their projects on sale now, in the future of the next two or three years, will have a noticeable advantage over competitors – the availability of in—demand inventory. This is especially important, given the long development cycle and the reduction in the number of starts in the market as a whole.
— We will continue to work on relevant residential complexes and the development of new projects in order not to miss the opportunity and increase volumes during the active period, which, we are sure, will soon be back on the market, — agrees Natalia Korotaevskaya. — We definitely have plans to put new projects on sale and develop the old ones. For example, by the end of the year we will present to the market a new project in Novosergievka and our second project in Yanino. Aquilon Group also intends to announce a number of projects in St. Petersburg, for example, a business center near the Frunzenskaya metro station in the Moskovsky district.
— Of course, the construction will continue, — Sergey Sofronov supports. — Nothing under construction or planned for launch in the near future will be put on pause, it is absolutely excluded. In addition, large investments in the purchase of land for construction took place this year. Most of them fell on the Leningrad region, but nevertheless.
At the same time, according to him, the normal evolutionary process continues in the market: “In a competitive environment, no one will cut their ideas on how to stand out in the market.”
According to the results of the first half of the year, 1.5 million square meters were put on sale in the agglomeration. m of housing, Olga Trosheva noted: 0.9 million square meters. m in St. Petersburg and 0.6 million square meters . m — in the Leningrad region. For example, in February, Setl Group began construction of the Bionika Zapovednaya residential complex in the Primorsky district.
— The launch of new facilities on the market of the St. Petersburg agglomeration will continue, however, the dynamics of the last two weeks suggests a gradual decrease in the volume of housing commissioning, — Dmitry Efremov believes. — In the medium-term forecast, developers will restrain the implementation of promising residential complexes and focus on the development of projects that have already started.
Sergey Terentyev, director of the Real Estate Department of the CDU Group, says that most developers have so far taken a wait-and-see attitude and do not plan to expand their portfolio:
— It will be possible to assess what indicators we will reach in the current conditions in the autumn. In particular, we expected to open sales in four new facilities at the beginning of the year, but so far we have postponed their launch to autumn or the end of the year. After the completion of the mass preferential mortgage program, the volume of demand in the market decreased significantly.
— Despite all the difficulties and challenges, developers are engaged in the development and creation of new projects, replenish the land bank, announce sales starts in construction queues or launch new projects, — says Ekaterina Nemchenko. — However, the dynamics of the start of new projects is lower than in previous years, the supply is replenished in a smaller volume.
— It is possible that a number of developers will decide to slow down the withdrawal of new projects, but GloraX will continue to implement the approved strategy and will increase the scale of the business, — commented Tatyana Khalilova. — This year we have already acquired two projects in the Leningrad region. One plot with an area of 46.5 hectares is located in the village of Kuttuzi, where we plan to implement a large-scale project of integrated development of territories with a total area of 451 thousand square meters. m. We purchased the second plot with an area of 174 hectares in the village of Mikhaylovka in the Lomonosov district of the Leningrad region. This was the largest transaction on the land market this year.
— Of course, the development in our market will not stop — the solution of the housing issue is one of the fundamental human needs, — says Maria Orlova. — Moreover, the new conditions will only increase the flow of projects into the region. After all, the need of people, and especially the family audience, to expand their living space will not go away, and credit conditions have deteriorated. In this situation, projects in the field will receive additional benefits.
Expectations
One way or another, the real estate market will continue to revolve around mortgages or their alternatives in the form of installments. At the same time, developers are still waiting for support from the state.
— Most likely, companies will offer customers different installment options with a low down payment, subsidizing market mortgages, for example, for the construction period, various promotions, — explained Eduard Tiktinsky. — The decline in demand and the reduction in construction volumes are now going on in parallel, so we do not expect sharp market fluctuations. And in the long term, today’s market situation is likely to lead to a traditional rise in real estate prices — as has happened many times during numerous economic crises.
— Without postponing until the end of the year or the onset of other events, it is necessary to jointly find and give the market a convenient and understandable tool for the purchase of new buildings, — says Ekaterina Nemchenko. — We need attention to the construction industry from the state and support. You should not wait for the onset of critical or crisis phenomena, market participants have extensive experience and understand what the consequences of the current situation may be.
— We are waiting for the launch of new, more targeted mortgage programs with state support, — said Maria Orlova. — These can be targeted programs for employees of the medical and scientific fields, teaching staff. We are also sure that it is logical to launch a separate youth mortgage program, which, among other tasks, would stimulate an increase in the birth rate. The task is to build 100 million square meters. m per year is still worth it, and it can be assumed that the regulator will do something to stimulate the market, which is one of the backbone ones for the domestic economy.
At the same time, the most effective measure of support, according to her, is to reduce the key rate to below 10%. If the “key” is at this level for a long enough time, most government support programs will simply not be needed — the market itself will be able to offer buyers very competitive conditions.
— Easing conditions under preferential programs or reducing market mortgage rates to 12-14% per annum could support demand, — agrees Sergey Terentyev. — As previous years have shown, buyers consider this level of rates psychologically acceptable and begin to return to the market at it.
According to the medium—term forecast published by the Central Bank recently, it is worth expecting a rate cut to 10-11% in 2026, and to 7-8% no earlier than 2027.
— Given the high cost of apartments in St. Petersburg and the inaccessibility of standard mortgages to a wide range of people, we predict that the projects of the Leningrad region will attract consumer interest, – says Dmitry Efremov. — And in the medium term, a partial redistribution of demand in favor of the Leningrad region will become a new trend in the mass market market.
As for nonresident buyers, Glavstroy — Saint Petersburg expects a decrease in their share of sales in the city: most likely, they will be more interested in suburban and regional projects in which developers will be able to offer more affordable options than in St. Petersburg.
— The remaining preferential programs — family, IT mortgages – will take the main share in the total volume of concluded transactions using mortgages, — Dmitry Efremov added. — Finally, we should expect the appearance of new promotional offers from developers and partner banks, which will stimulate consumer interest and support demand.
Olga Trosheva, speaking about forecasts for the second half of 2024, noted that the extension of the family mortgage was very important for the market.
— We see that now the joint work of banks and developers on subsidized mortgage programs with a reduced rate for the construction period has intensified, — she explained. — There are different types of individual programs: trench, combo, etc. Also, many developers offer interesting installments to their clients.
According to the forecasts of St. Petersburg Real Estate, in 2024 the volume of sales in the St. Petersburg agglomeration may reach 3.2 million square meters, with a more positive scenario and the emergence of additional stimulating mortgage solutions, the market may approach the results of last year.
— We are waiting for the market to adapt to new conditions, but this is not a passive expectation, but an active work that we carry out inside the company and in partnership with banks, — assured Tatyana Khalilova. — We strive to offer our clients comfortable mechanisms for purchasing real estate, updating the terms of installments and launching rate subsidy programs with Sberbank, VTB, Sovcombank.
According to her, all market participants are waiting for a reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate — this would reduce the cost of project financing and return an affordable market mortgage. Until that happens, the industry could be supported by legislative changes allowing developers to partially disclose escrow accounts.
— The key rate, the percentage for project financing and the percentage for mortgage lending should be reasonable so that the general population can afford to improve housing conditions and buy apartments in new comfortable residential complexes, — Ekaterina Nemchenko summed up.
— There will be enough conditions under which the construction industry will not go into the category of those in need of support, — Sergey Sofronov added.
Источник: www.fontanka.ru
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