Statistics for the first six months of 2024 show that, in general, developers have tried their best: the nationwide volume of new housing starts has gone up compared to last year. But, as always, the devil is in the details
The development results of July and the entire first half of the year in the segment of apartment buildings turn out to be some kind of… No, everything seems to be in order, but it is haunted by the fact that the calculations relate to the period of validity of a preferential mortgage on new buildings, which now does not exist. And therefore the statistics seem to be joyful, but in many ways unpromising, with a touch of sadness.
The portal “Unified Resource of Developers” reports that this July, developers brought to the market 43% more MCD than a year earlier, and only 1% less than in June: the July 567 objects from 214 developers are 73.5 thousand apartments with a total area of 3.64 million square meters, and the area of apartments compared to since July 2023, it has increased by 8.4%. Since the beginning of the year, 3408 objects have appeared on the market (25.7% more than in the same period of 2023), that is, 557 thousand apartments with a total area of 27.28 million squares.
“On average, since January 2024, 2,615 apartments have been brought to the country’s market daily, which is 3% less than in 2023. While maintaining the same pace, 957 thousand apartments will be withdrawn in a whole year. The most objects appeared in the Republic of Bashkortostan (89), the Rostov Region (64) and the Novosibirsk Region (43) during the month. In terms of the area of new facilities, Moscow (0.26 million square meters), the Rostov Region (0.24 million) and the Republic of Bashkortostan (0.22 million) are in the lead,” shares the details of the ERZ.RF.
According to “Dom.Russia”*, in January-June 2024, developers launched 24 million square meters (plus 14% year-on-year). As a result, the portfolio of housing under construction reached 115 million square meters (plus 8% since the beginning of the year).
“In the first half of the year, the growth of project financing indicators for developers accelerated: in six months, the volume of open credit lines exceeded 19 trillion rubles, the sample of limits — 7.3 trillion rubles. According to the results of the half-year, developers received over 1.5 trillion rubles from the disclosed accounts (in addition to the 3.7 trillion received in a record 2023). The inflow of funds to escrow accounts for the first half of the year amounted to 2.5 trillion, and accumulated balances increased by a trillion, to 6.7 trillion rubles. The coverage of the sample of loan funds from developers by escrow accounts remained high (85% as of June 1, 2024). The accumulated sales backlog will allow developers to guarantee completion of projects with a close commissioning date, even despite the expected slowdown in demand,” analysts at Dom.RF emphasize.
According to their estimates, when completing the construction of a house using the project financing model, it is enough for the developer to sell 70% of the apartments in the construction phase (another 30% is being implemented in an already completed project), however, the increased demand (especially on the eve of the completion of the preferential mortgage program for new buildings) led to the fact that the houses commissioned in the first half of the year had a sale 78%. According to the head of the analytical center “Dom.The Russian Federation” by Mikhail Goldberg, 65% of the space has already been sold in projects scheduled for completion in 2024, and about 40% in 2025. “In other words, the plan has already been completed, and the expected reduction in mortgage loans will not affect the sales model for projects with a close completion date. However, if high rates remain for facilities with later commissioning, additional measures to support project financing may be required,” Dom.RF emphasizes.
But here’s what’s kind of alarming: the country’s largest companies have slowed down the launch of new projects, and, according to calculations, “Dom.The Russian Federation”, the overall growth was provided mainly by developers outside the top 10. Of course, krupnyak did not stand aside either: for example, Lingonberries had a plus of 216% year—on-year, Setl Group had a plus of 145%, and Exactly had a plus of 75%. But many market leaders turned out to be in the red: in particular, the “Airplane” for launching new projects fell by 32%, the PEAK — by 50%, and the peak — even by 53%. We need to figure out what this means separately.
As for the country’s largest markets, Moscow, Krasnodar Territory, Tatarstan, Sverdlovsk, Leningrad, Tyumen regions have increased in terms of launching new projects in six months, and some significantly: Moscow, for example, showed a result of plus 37%, and the Sverdlovsk Region and Tatarstan — plus 48%. However, the Moscow Region has minus 19%, and St. Petersburg has minus 15%.
But in general, the situation is stable, according to Dom.RF. To increase the volume of construction, launches must exceed the volume of housing commissioning. If the indicator is less than 100%, launches do not make up for the input, and the portfolio of housing under construction is reduced. Since developers have launched 42% more new projects over the past 12 months than they commissioned, the ratio at the beginning of July was 51.5 million per 36.2 million square meters, or 142%. “Stocks of housing under construction will be enough to maintain current commissioning until 2027, sales of apartments in new buildings are sufficiently provided with new projects,” Dom.RF concludes.
But the experts of CIAN*, who analyzed the first half of the year, are not so optimistic and say that the results of developers leave much to be desired. For example, according to their calculations, the total volume of housing commissioning in the Russian Federation in the first half of 2024 is 2.5% higher than in the first half of 2023, however, the population built 25% more, and developers built 28% less. “Federal cities and regions with agglomerations of millions remain the leaders in terms of new development construction: Moscow (8.8% of the total Russian input), St. Petersburg (8.4%), Krasnodar Territory (5.7%), Moscow Region (5.2%), Novosibirsk Region (4.7%), Tyumen Region (4.3%) Tatarstan (3.8%), Sverdlovsk Region (3.5%), Leningrad Region (2.8%) and Nizhny Novgorod Region (2.5%),” the company’s report says.
As I’ve already told you BFM.ru According to the CIAN, only in nine regions developers have introduced more housing than the population — these are Moscow and St. Petersburg, Chukotka, Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, Arkhangelsk Region, Novosibirsk Region, Chuvashia and North Ossetia. The maximum share of housing and communal services in the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Magadan region — here all 100% of the housing introduced in the first half of the year was built by the population. More than 90% is accounted for by residential housing in the Kamchatka Territory, Chechnya, Kalmykia, Belgorod Region, Karachay-Cherkessia and the Altai Republic — here are some of the lowest volumes of commissioning by developers, experts say.
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And a few more important Cyanide numbers. Among the regions where the volume of commissioning in the first half of the year is significantly lower than last year’s figure are Moscow (minus 47%), Ryazan (minus 30%) and Lipetsk (minus 23%) regions, St. Petersburg (minus 21%) and Sevastopol (minus 42%). In the first four, a decrease was recorded both among the population and among developers (to a greater extent), in Sevastopol, the negative dynamics was only in housing and communal services, developers remained at the level of last year. And in general, as the expert suggests, “CYANOGEN.Analysts” Elena Lapshina, the all-Russian input volumes by the end of 2024 will be comparable to last year’s figure.
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