Banks raise mortgage rates: how borrowers’ behavior is changing

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Rates on market-based housing lending programs have been steadily increasing since the end of May. This affects the amount of the monthly payment

 Банки повышают ставки по ипотеке: как меняется поведение заемщиков

Banks continue to raise mortgage rates — in early June, major players announced this, and in the week from June 10 to June 16, an increase was noted in a number of banks. Together with experts, we understand how this affects the amount of the monthly payment and the parameters of the loans being issued.

How banks raised rates

The round of mortgage market rate increases began at the end of May. The entire previous month, the changes were isolated: only two banks, Sovcombank and Uralsib, increased rates by 0.5 percentage points. Significant adjustments to the conditions for mortgage programs began in the week from May 27 to June 2, according to Dom.The Russian Federation”, then the rates on market mortgages for new buildings and secondary housing were increased by 1 percentage point by VTB (to 17.7% per annum) and Alfa-Bank (to 18.19%), an increase of 0.7 percentage points was also noted in UBRiR (to 17.7%).

The following week — from June 3 to June 9 — there were even more increases:

  • in Sberbank — by 1.5 percentage points, up to 18.2% for new buildings and 18.5% for secondary housing;
  • in Alfa-Bank — by 2 percentage points, up to 20.19% for both programs;
  • in Sovcombank — by 0.5 percentage points, to 18.49%;
  • in the bank “Saint Petersburg” — by 0.99 percentage points, up to 16.99%.
  • In the week from June 10 to June 16, four more large banks raised rates:

  • Promsvyazbank — by 0.5 percentage points, up to 17.7% for new buildings and 17.6% for secondary housing;
  • Uralsib — by 1.3 percentage points, up to 18.99% for both programs;
  • Credit Bank of Moscow — by 1.95 percentage points, up to 18.25% for new buildings and 18.45% for secondary;
  • Ak Bars Bank — by 1 percentage point, up to 17.6%.
  • In addition, since June 17, mortgage rates have been raised by 0.5 percentage points for the second time in a row by VTB. Weighted average mortgage rates for new buildings and for secondary housing from banks from the top 20 in terms of issuance increased significantly over the month, according to Dom.Russia”, in the week from May 13 to May 19, it was 16.76% and 16.95%, respectively. In the week from June 10 to 16, it was already 18.18% and 18.37%.

    Seven major banks raised mortgage rates after maintaining key

    How much do I have to pay at market rates

    At the same time, even the level of market rates of 16-17% per annum was characterized by market participants as prohibitive. The size of the monthly payment at this rate does not allow servicing a mortgage loan even for borrowers with above-average incomes, experts draw attention to.

    According to the calculations of Domclick analysts, the average cost of a one-room apartment in the primary market of Moscow (excluding the elite segment) now amounts to 13.2 million rubles. With a minimum down payment (15.1%) at the current market rate of Sberbank, the mortgage payment for the purchase of such an apartment would amount to about 200 thousand rubles per month. Domclick draws attention to the fact that borrowers are now trying to provide a larger contribution (statistics for January — May indicate 31%). With such a contribution, the payment will be lower — 151.2 thousand rubles per month. If you focus on a comfortable ratio of monthly payment to income (30%), to service a loan with such amounts of expenses, you will need to earn 666.3 thousand and 506.7 thousand rubles per month, respectively.

    Market participants pay attention that 30% is the marginal ratio of payment to income, at which the borrower is as comfortable as possible to pay the mortgage. In reality, the share of payment may be higher — banks, which always assess the risks of possible non-payments very strictly, most often approve mortgages at an indicator of about 60%. With such a share in income, borrowers from the example above will have to earn about 330 thousand and 250 thousand rubles per month, respectively.

    How the behavior of borrowers is changing

     Банки повышают ставки по ипотеке: как меняется поведение заемщиков

    Photo: DimaBerlin / Shutterstock / FOTODOM

    “Over the past year, banks have seriously strengthened the credit scoring of customers. They often do not issue loans to customers who apply for consumer loans. Banks also began to cut off customers who cannot officially confirm the source of income. At the same time, most of the clients make a high down payment (on average 25-30%), as this provides a more comfortable rate,” says Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium. — At the same time, more than half of borrowers still apply for a mortgage for 25-30 years in order to reduce the amount of monthly payments. But, as practice shows, customers repay loans mostly ahead of schedule — in 7-10 years.”

    Now the maximum debt burden should not exceed 70% for all loans, says Yuri Nikitchuk, head of the lending and partner programs department at PIONEER. “If we talk about the ratio of payment to income, then on average banks approve mortgages with a payment of no more than 60% of the client’s income. It can also be noted that the requirements of banks to attract co—borrowers to approve a mortgage application have increased at least twice compared to last year,” the expert cites the data.

    Yuri Nikitchuk draws attention to the fact that borrowers — clients of the developer began to make a larger down payment than last year. In 2023, it was about 33%, now it is 42%. “This is due to the fact that customers want to use the loan amount under preferential programs,” the expert explains. — If they do not meet the conditions, they try to make the maximum possible initial payment. The increased contribution makes it possible to reduce the loan term and the amount of overpayment, which becomes a priority for many buyers of new buildings.”

    Representatives of the Level Group also say that banks practically do not approve mortgage applications with a debt burden of 80%. The developer’s clients also increased the average size of the down payment, the press service said. “This is due to an increase in the minimum initial payment to 30% under the program with state support in December 2023, as well as a decrease in the maximum amount to 6 million rubles,” they explained. — For the same reason, customers who do not fit into 6 million are now forced to take out a consumer loan for the missing amount. There are no accurate statistics on such clients, but we have begun to hear such appeals much more often.”


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