Photo: iStock, Evkaz
The abolition of mass preferential mortgages ensured a rapid increase in the share of secondary housing in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Domclick analysts studied the data received from Sberbank for St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Region and the Northwestern Federal District for July 2024 and compared them with the period before the cancellation of the mass preferential mortgage.
Regions of the Northwestern Federal District. The distribution of Savings Bank mortgage loans by type of real estate in July and the first half of 2024: the purchase of primary and secondary apartments (designated as “Primary” and “Secondary (apartments)”, respectively), individual housing construction (IHS), suburban real estate. Additionally, data are provided for other regions of the district (“Other regions of the Northwestern Federal District”) and for the entire district as a whole (“Northwestern Federal District”).
According to Domclick data for incomplete July 2024
Recall that on July 1, the program of preferential mortgages with a low rate, which has been in effect since 2020, ended. It was possible to participate in the now abolished program regardless of age, marital status, profession and place of residence — that is, it was the most widespread.
The secondary apartment market has grown by one and a half times
After the cancellation of state support and significant adjustments to family mortgages, the share of ready-made housing in the structure of mortgage loans in the Northwestern Federal District increased markedly: the indicator rose from 43.1% to 67%.
In the large regions of the Northwestern Federal District, the secondary market strengthened slightly weaker — to 61.6% in St. Petersburg and to 59.2% in the Leningrad Region. Previously, the figures barely exceeded a third of mortgage loans.
Alexey Leypi, Director of the Domklick Division of Sberbank:
— After the completion of State Support and changes in the terms of the “Family Mortgage”, the share of secondary real estate in the Northwestern Federal District increased significantly: in incomplete July, compared to the data of the first half of the year, the indicator increased by 24 percentage points to 67%. The changes are clearly visible in the largest regions of the district: in St. Petersburg, the share of the secondary market increased by 26.9 percentage points to 61.6%, in the Leningrad Region — by 21.5 percentage points to 59.2%.
Even before the cancellation of mass preferential mortgages, Domclick analysts noted that the share of the secondary market in the Northwestern Federal District is one of the highest compared to other districts (after the North Caucasus and Volga regions).
Experts explain this by a small gap in monthly payments in the primary and secondary markets: so, in January-June 2024, the amount of monthly payments in the ready-made housing segment was only 4.7% more than in the new-build market.
In addition, there are regions in the Northwestern Federal District where the volume of supply on the primary market is extremely low (Murmansk and Novgorod Regions, Komi Republic) or zero (Nenets Autonomous Okrug).
Primary market: almost halved
After the cancellation of state support, the indicator for the primary market in the Northwestern Federal District has changed significantly compared to the period before the large-scale changes in preferential mortgages.
As of incomplete July 2024, the primary market in the Northwestern Federal District amounted to approximately 19.6% of mortgage loans issued by the Savings Bank. The indicator has changed significantly compared to the period before the large-scale changes in preferential mortgages: in the first half of the year, more than a third of transactions were concluded on the primary market (36.9%).
The same trend is also observed in the largest regions of the district — in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. The percentage of transactions in the market of new buildings in the Northern capital decreased from 46.6% to 25.6%, and in the Leningrad Region — from 37.3% to 22.2%.
IHS: a three-fold drop
The market of individual construction (IHS) has also experienced a recession. As in the case of new buildings, the share of loans for residential buildings under construction has significantly decreased both in the entire Northwestern Federal District and in individual subjects. In the district, the share of housing and communal services increased from 15.6% to 5.4%, in St. Petersburg — from 14.7% to 4.6%, and in the Leningrad Region – from 19.2% to 6%.
Suburban real estate: growth more than doubled
As for secondary suburban real estate, the degree of demand for this type of housing has also increased throughout the district. Moreover, if in the Northwestern Federal District the share of country houses increased from 2% to 4.3%, then in St. Petersburg and its suburbs the changes are more significant. Thus, the percentage of transactions concluded in the secondary suburban housing market in the Northern capital increased from 2.3% to 5.1%, and in the Leningrad Region — from 3.2% to 8.9%.
Less is because it is more expensive
If we analyze the housing supply in the Northwestern Federal District in July 2024, the primary market is the most expensive segment for buying real estate. The cost of a standard apartment (50 sq.m.) here is 9.8 million rubles, whereas in the secondary market a lot of the same area is estimated at 7.9 million rubles. A private house (100 sq.m.) can be bought for 6.9 million rubles.
In St. Petersburg, housing costs more than the average in the Northwestern District. At the same time, the highest price is offered in private residential buildings: the lot (100 sq.m.) will cost 14.1 million rubles. A standard apartment in a new building (50 sq.m.) is sold a little cheaper — 12.7 million rubles. The most attractive options can be purchased on the secondary market: an apartment of 50 sq.m. costs 10.5 million rubles.
In the Leningrad region, an apartment in a new building (50 sq.m.) and a country house (100 sq.m.) can be bought at about the same cost — for 7.9 million and 7.8 million rubles, respectively. The finished apartment will cost 6.8 million rubles.
If we compare these data with the average values for the district, it turns out that apartments on the primary and secondary markets in the Leningrad region are cheaper than in the Northwestern Federal District as a whole. Experts add that in the segment of new buildings, the Leningrad region leads among the largest regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the share of budget housing supply, which is almost 100%.
At the same time, private houses in the Leningrad Region are placed in ads at a higher cost than in the Northwestern Federal District as a whole. The increased prices are due to the presence of a large number of ads in localities near expensive St. Petersburg, including Vsevolozhsk and Gatchina.
Methodology: how and what did the analysts think
During the study, experts reviewed the mortgage transactions of the Savings Bank in St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Region and the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) as a whole. They also studied the demand in other regions of the district.
Experts assessed the distribution of the number of mortgage loans for various types of real estate: primary apartments, secondary apartments, individual housing construction (IHS), suburban real estate. The analysis period is the first half of the year (the period until the completion of State Support and a large—scale change in the Family mortgage) and incomplete July 2024 (after updating the terms of preferential programs).
Infographics and analytical information provided by the press service of Domclick
Domclick LLC, https://domclick.ru /, INN 7736249247
Photo: iStock, Evkaz
Источник: www.fontanka.ru
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