Not to say that the Russian secondary fell into a coma. But that she entered autumn cheerfully and cheerfully is also not to say. In fact, everyone is waiting: sellers for a recovery in demand, buyers for a decrease in prices. And the second chances to wait are clearly more, analysts say
“The increase in mortgage rates does not encourage you to buy anything. You have to be a very big adventurer or optimist to buy an apartment on the secondary market now. And further growth will lead to the fact that the market, which is already practically on the secondary market, will stand up, as they say, tightly,” — this is the opinion of Shamil Kochekaev, director of the head office of the BEST-Real Estate company, quoted in the Kommersant newspaper.
We’ll wait and see, but for now, some statistical calculations regarding the August alignment. Let everyone draw their own conclusions.
It has been said more than once that despite the increase in the key rate, the revision of preferential mortgage programs, the drop in sales, etc., housing prices are in no hurry to decline. Moreover, they continue to grow in most developed markets. At the same time, according to the estimates of the federal portal “World of Apartments”*, in August 2024, in 70 largest cities of the country, apartments on the secondary market rose in price more noticeably than in new buildings, and the rise in price occurred in more cities than in the primary.
In particular, the square meter went up in 53 out of 70 cities, fell in price in 15, and did not change in two. The largest growth, according to the calculations of the “World of Apartments”, occurred in Krasnodar (+4.4%), Leningrad Region (+2.6%), Novosibirsk (+2.1%), Tomsk (+2.1%), Tolyatti (+2%), Voronezh (+2%), Kazan (+1.8%), St. Petersburg (+1.7%), Stavropol (+1.7%) and Yekaterinburg (+1.7%).
Of course, in some places the price of a square has decreased; most of all in the Moscow region (-2.2%), Ivanovo (-0.4%), Sochi (-0.4%), Khabarovsk (-0.3%), Belgorod (-0.3%), Volzhsky (-0.3%), Orel (-0.2%), Kemerovo (-0.2%), Samara (-0.2%) and Surgut (-0.2%). The national average for August increased the cost per square meter by 0.7% (up to 116,078 rubles). As for Moscow, prices have risen by 0.3%: now, on average, the capital’s square costs 341,344 rubles.
The situation is almost the same with respect to the average lot price: it increased in 54 cities, decreased in 15, and remained the same in one city. The most active positive dynamics was observed in Krasnodar (+5.6%), Tomsk (+5.2%), Cheboksary (+4.6%), Novosibirsk (+4.4%), Izhevsk (+3.9%), Grozny (+3.6%), Vladimir (+3.4%), Tyumen (+3.2%), Ufa (+2.7%) and Chelyabinsk (+2.6%).
The most noticeable decrease occurred in the Moscow Region (-2.8%), St. Petersburg (-1.8%), Ryazan (-1.5%), Ulan-Ude (-1.4%), Lipetsk (-1.4%), Yakutsk (-1.1%), Samara (-0.8%), Belgorod (-0.8%), Surgut (-0.6%) and Saransk (-0.4%). On average, the growth in all the studied cities was 1%, and at the end of August the average lot on the secondary market cost 6,126,400 rubles. In Moscow, the price of an apartment increased by 0.2% and amounted to 19,957,352 rubles per object.
“With the cancellation of preferential mortgages in the primary market, the increase in prices for secondary housing began to exceed the increase in prices for new buildings, where in August the square increased by 0.6%, and the average lot — by 0.4%. It is expected that this trend will continue, because new buildings no longer have the trump card of cheap mortgages, and their prices are higher. Buyers are increasingly abandoning the idea of purchasing housing under construction and paying attention to houses that have already been built. Moreover, you can rent an apartment with a ready—made renovation on the secondary market, while you need to spend a lot of money on finishing a new building,” says Pavel Lutsenko, General director of the federal portal “World of Apartments”.
According to a study by the Domclick analytical center*, starting in May 2024, mortgage loans in the secondary market are kept at the level of 32-35 thousand loans per month, and August was no exception: its 31.8 thousand mortgages are 8.1% less than in July, but such a drawdown cannot be called critical. “After the increase that we saw in July against the background of the cancellation of the state—backed mortgage program and restrictions on family mortgages, the share of the secondary market decreased in August to 60.5% (-9.1 percentage points since July),” the experts add. According to their estimates, the largest share of secondary loans in the total volume of mortgage loans was recorded in the Chechen Republic (90.3%), Magadan (83.3%), Tver (82.7%), Saratov (77.8%) and Kursk (77.3%) regions. All of them, with the exception of the Tver region, are included in the list of regions that are subject to extended family mortgage conditions, Domklick notes.
Analyzing the state of affairs in the secondary market of Moscow, the capital’s Rosreestr* emphasizes: the secondary market still retains demand. In August, the department registered 11,167 transfers of rights based on contracts for the purchase and sale (exchange) of housing. The indicator decreased by 15.2% compared to the previous month, when there were 13,165 registrations.
“However, if July became the peak value of the year, when buyers continued to react to changes in the key rate and conditions of preferential lending, then August corresponds to the average annual indicator of transactions in the secondary market, which was recorded by the management in February, March, May and June (about 11 thousand transfers of rights per month). We can say that in conditions when it becomes less profitable to invest in new long-term projects under construction with high mortgage interest, ready—to-live or rent housing is still in demand,” says Igor Maidanov, head of the Rosreestr Department for Moscow.
According to the department, in total, in January — August 2024, 90,313 transfers of rights under contracts for the purchase and sale (exchange) of housing were registered in Moscow. This figure is 18.3% less than the record eight months of last year (110,590), although by 2022 (85,909) the growth was 5.1%.
And finally: another rapid measurement of consumer sentiment conducted by the analytical center IRN.ru *, shows that Russians do not lose hope for a decrease in housing prices this fall. 68.8% of survey participants said they expect a price pullback in the next three months, and a significant revision of prices by more than 5% is now indicated by the majority of respondents (43.7%). Their share increased by 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous measurement, and if compared with the results of a similar survey in the spring of 2024, then by 21.1 percentage points.
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However, prices will move up or down almost without the participation of respondents IRN.ru : only 20.6% of the survey participants reported plans to buy an apartment in the next three months (-7.5 percentage points compared to the beginning of summer). 79.4% of those who voted do not plan to purchase housing at the moment.
“So far, prices, despite a noticeable decrease in demand, are standing still, but they will not be able to stay in these positions for a long time, and people understand this. Apartments today in the primary market and in the secondary are overvalued, mortgages are expensive, sales are falling. So far, prices have not been allowed to turn around by the slow accumulation of supply and sellers’ hopes for an increase in demand in the autumn, with the beginning of the business season. But, most likely, these hopes will not come true — according to the rhetoric of the regulator, it is possible to wait for a key rate below 10%, at which the mortgage comes to life, no earlier than 2027,” recalls the head of the analytical center “Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.ru ” Oleg Repchenko.
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