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State banker German Gref, the main organizer of the business breakfast, immediately made an unvarnished diagnosis when opening the meeting: “We are at the peak of economic uncertainty.” And at that moment it became clear that the conversation would go in a straightforward manner. For the first time in a long time, business and officials found themselves in the same tone: anxious, sometimes almost annoyed.
The banker spoke quickly and sharply: sanctions, devaluation, expensive loans, poor productivity. “Raw material prices have fallen, coal is minus 27%, the ruble is overvalued, and the Central Bank’s rate in real terms is stifling business.” It wasn’t a complaint—it sounded like a patient’s examination protocol. “We lag 1.5–4 times behind developed countries in terms of productivity. But this is also an opportunity — you need to rely on AI, technology and competition,” he added, as if reminding himself that a way out is still possible.
The audience — large entrepreneurs and officials — voted: the main problems are the high rate, poor investment climate and lack of staff. Andrei Makarov, a deputy who is called a “fiscal philosopher” behind his back, recalled the forgotten: “Business has stopped calling the investment climate the main problem. It’s disturbing. The problem remains, but faith in its solution has disappeared.” His passage about a country “with an unpredictable past” caused contradictory emotions. But the phrase about Putin’s quote from 25 years ago – “Property rights are still poorly protected” — sounded vivid: nothing has changed.
Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), habitually talked about the external contour: about the Arab world as a new technological axis and how regulators create attraction there, not deterrence. He mentioned that they were discussing the future of AI, while we were discussing the past out of habit. “They ask what AI will be like in 10 years. We are what he was like in 2020.”
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Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak habitually kept on the edge of optimism: “The economy is slowing down, but this is not a recession. There is potential for growth if technology is introduced and productivity is improved.” But he didn’t hide it either: betting is a “sore subject.” Andrey Gangan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia, gave the answer: inflation is a tax on the poor, and high rates are not forever. But balance is the key word.” It sounded like an attempt to bring the conversation back to the academic norm, but that day the norm did not apply.
Alexey Repik, a representative of the interests of medium—sized companies and chairman of the Public Council under the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, carefully but clearly outlined the main thing: “Now even those who have money have no desire to invest – there is no predictability. We are building an overly complex regulation. The growth of marketplaces became possible because no one interfered.” His thesis became one of the most discussed at breakfast: not to help, but at least not to interfere.
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The president of Opora Russia, Alexander Kalinin, in turn, spoke about small business as if it were an endangered species. Problems: financing, personnel shortage, educational disaster. “50% of startups die in the valley of death.” The bet is only part of the problem. “We need venture capital money, an IPO, easier hiring of migrants, and practical education. People don’t know how to be entrepreneurs — they haven’t been taught,” his words sounded almost like an accusation.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking last, tried to translate the conversation into the language of solutions: AI in the Ministry of Finance is already helping to analyze costs, but it is not yet replacing people. He promised not to raise taxes.
But all the same, this time the general nerve of the discussion was that on both sides – both business and officials – there was one thing: we do not understand what will happen next. In previous years, officials said, “everything is under control,” and business said, “everything is bad,” but abstractly. This time, the control was challenged, and the dissatisfaction was specified.
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