test banner for the title image
Several of Russia’s largest banks recorded an outflow of term deposits in June. This event is not critical for the financial industry, but it is alarming: there is still an influx of deposits in the system as a whole, but money is flowing away from key players. What makes citizens withdraw funds, despite the fact that interest on deposits is still outstripping inflation?
As Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes, first of all it is worth looking at the calendar. “This is the holiday period, summer, increased spending. People need extra money, and the attractiveness of betting fades into the background at this point,” he says. According to him, the beginning reduction of the key rate is also affecting. It reinforced the feeling among depositors that deposits would no longer be as profitable as in 2024, when rates reached 23%.
Other financiers also point to business behavior. With a strong ruble, exporters are forced to sell foreign exchange earnings, but not all of them go to banks: some are used for early repayment of debts, some for current expenses. Individuals exhibit similar behavior, especially in an environment where consumer confidence remains fragile.
An additional factor is emotional. In the spring and winter of 2024/2025, rumors about a possible deposit freeze returned to the information field. The reason was the discussion of such a hypothetical measure as an alternative to tightening monetary policy. The central bank and officials unequivocally refuted such ideas, calling them “nonsense,” but the residue remained.
“I don’t think this has become a massive trigger,— says Igor Nikolaev. — But our people are fearful, and they have reason to be: they have already experienced the freezing of deposits in the 1990s, the crises of 2008 and 2014. Someone could have been fooled by information stuffing, but this is more of a background fear, rather than the main factor.”
Nevertheless, the decline in confidence in long—term banking products is a trend that cannot be ignored. Even though deposit rates are 2-3% higher than inflation today, depositors are starting to look for alternatives — or simply abandoning the idea of “freezing” money for a period of time.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key interest rate is scheduled for September 2025. If the regulator reduces it again, this will lead to a further reduction in the cost of deposits — and, as a result, to an increase in outflow. Especially against the background of the end of the summer season, when many people are running out of vacation savings and the search for “live” money begins.
“If inflation rises by September and the key interest rate drops again, this could be a turning point,” says Nikolaev. — Then the yield on deposits will approach the inflationary one. In this situation, many people will really start to review their financial strategies.”
At the moment, it is premature to talk about a mass exodus of depositors. The total volume of deposits in the banking system remains at a high level, and interest rates continue to benefit from inflation. However, the situation is becoming more and more sensitive: any sudden movement towards a change in the key rate, foreign policy risks or an increase in distrust can trigger a chain reaction.
In 2024, Russians held a record 70 trillion rubles in banks. Now that monetary policy is changing direction and profitability is declining, the system is beginning to test its strength. It is possible that the first serious exam will be held in the fall.
So far, the banking system is coping with changing customer behavior. But the longer the yield on deposits goes down, the higher the risk that depositors will prefer other options — or simply “keep money handy.”
English 
Russian 
German 
Polish