In the photo: view of the city of Anapa (Photo: Dmitry Feoktistov/TASS)
In October, the lowest median price per 1 sq. m in new buildings in million-plus cities turned out to be in Samara and Voronezh — 125 and 141 thousand rubles, respectively. For comparison, in Moscow this figure amounted to 367 thousand rubles, in Kazan — 265 thousand rubles, and in St. Petersburg – 235 thousand rubles.
SP spoke with analysts about the correlation between the price per square meter and the average salary in the regions.
— Of course, there is one, if we talk about the whole country. It is clear that in regions with the highest income levels, products, goods and apartments will cost more, — said Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
“SP”: How representative is the median indicator of 1 sq. m studio in a new building in terms of the state of the residential real estate market?
— The indicator is non-standard. In principle, such median data only clarifies the trend. If the median cost of 1 sq. m of a studio is higher, then the cost of an apartment and the income level in this region will be higher.
“SP”: Does the cost of housing affect migration?
— Income level has a greater impact. And the cost of housing is rather indirect. I assume that internal migrants are looking to ensure that the income level is sufficient to solve the housing issue.
“SP”: Can the state manage this process in order to make up for the shortage of workers in different regions? How effective is the “Far Eastern hectare” for this purpose?
— We have not yet received the efficiency that was expected from him. The problem is that there are no labor-surplus regions left. The personnel shortage has become widespread in Russia. In our country, some regions of the North Caucasus remain labor-surplus, and traditionally the unemployment rate in them was higher than in other regions. However, even there the situation is changing.
Rich regions, where organizations and enterprises can pay higher salaries, are a kind of “vacuum cleaners” of labor resources. The struggle for personnel is carried out with the help of salaries, but the gain is quite relative, since even in rich subjects, problems with personnel do not disappear.
“SP”: Do military-industrial complex enterprises have more advantages now?
— Salary opportunities for such enterprises are higher, but even they are experiencing significant difficulties, because now there are no physically required specialists. For example, there are not enough welders. Even if there are monetary opportunities, it is not a fact that it is possible to mitigate the shortage of labor.
The discussion of the correlation of the cost per square meter and income was continued by the HSE Professor in St. Petersburg Andrey Zaostrovtsev.
— There is a correlation, but not pronounced. In this case, the figure for one month is not an indicator of a trend. You can’t put off an apartment or a down payment on a mortgage from one month’s salary.
It is necessary to monitor economic stability and incomes in the region for at least the last 5-10 years. For example, in Krasnodar, according to these statistics, in October the median cost per square meter decreased by 0.1%, to 149 thousand rubles. This is not so significant, since the indicators for the month are of interest mainly to realtors.
Do not forget that the demand for real estate, for example, in Moscow and In St. Petersburg, it is often presented by residents of other cities. In Samara or other megacities with similar income levels in Central Russia, as a rule, such citizens do not buy apartments. unless residents of the regions of the same name can save up, therefore, the cost per square meter is not so high.
From the point of view of price analysis, it is also necessary to monitor migration flows. Usually, internal migration goes from district centers to regional ones, to megacities, to the most successful regions, including those located on the Black Sea coast. In resort areas from May to September, you can rent an apartment and live in another region.
It is necessary to take into account the impact on the growth of the cost of square meters of preferential mortgages, which were supposed to make real estate more affordable for the population, and on the other hand, greatly dispersed prices. Now, with a significant reduction in preferential mortgages, the value of real estate can go down. That is, an apartment is an unreliable means of investment, if you do not take it in tourist places, for example in Sochi or Anapa, where housing will be paid off by renting by vacationers.
“SP”: Are there any problems with the outflow of population from the regions now?
— In the Far East, the population has significantly decreased, although the outflow has recently slowed down somewhat (in 1990-2022, the population of the Far Eastern Federal District decreased by 24.1%, to 7.9 million people — “SP”).
Many of the residents who work there are thinking about buying an apartment in Central Russia, if not in Moscow and In St. Petersburg, then at least in the Moscow region or Vyborg. This is happening despite the incentive to move to the Far East.
Now the shift method can work, which is effective for mastering the harsh parts of the country. Canada lives like this, there are no large cities in the north. The vast majority of the population lives along the border with the United States, which is approximately the latitude of the southern Russian regions. Over the past 50-100 years, the Canadian population has gradually shifted from the northern regions closer to the southern border.
In the USSR, there was a reverse process, citizens were attracted to the northern cities with higher incomes and apartments, but after registration it was already difficult to return back. With the advent of a market economy, it became unclear what to do with the northern cities in Siberia and the Far East, because they need a rich infrastructure. Shift camps require significantly less investment.
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