Photo: iStockphoto.com
Over the past four years, building materials have increased in price by an average of 70%. Most notably, the main items have risen in price — gas blocks, heat and waterproofing, reinforcement, concrete. In addition to the traditional seasonality, price increases are influenced by logistical difficulties, growing demand and many other factors. The participants of the Fontanka round table told why this growth will continue slowly and how to adapt to it.
There are many reasons
In recent years, the cost of building materials has been significantly outpacing the rate of increase in housing prices, said Elena Lelikova, Purchasing Director of A101 Group. Over the past four years, it has increased by an average of 70% for the main categories of building materials, and on the eve of this year’s high construction season, the price increase was 90%. At the same time, the growth rate of housing prices is almost two times lower.
— The main reasons are the large volumes of construction in recent years, stimulated by state support for mortgage programs, as well as the traditionally high demand for building materials in Russia on the eve of the summer season: they are massively purchased by private owners for construction work in dachas and in the residential housing sector, — she says. — This year, there has also been increased demand in the Russian market due to the need to restore flood-affected regions.
In addition to seasonal factors, the main reasons for the growth are Tatyana Rybkina, Director of the Department of Tenders and Purchases of Glory She called the symbiosis of currency surges, the logistical component, as well as the monopolization of producers. In addition, the expert mentioned that despite the course taken towards import substitution, the share of foreign equipment in production is still high — this affects the final price.
— The change in the cost of building materials is influenced by many factors: the shortage of personnel in production, the cost of transport, fuel and logistics, the need to change supply chains, seasonality, volume of demand and more, — added Vitaly Ershov, Director of Construction at Setl Group.
Growth Record Holders
The materials with the highest growth rates in the first six months were concrete and rebar, aerated concrete and insulation, Tatyana Rybkina continued.
Concrete and rebar have risen in price by 15%, aerated concrete by 24%, and insulation materials by 12-13%. Problems with the shortage of trains, the seasonal factor, as well as an increase in construction volumes in the regions and the warehouse sector contributed to the growth. It is also necessary to take into account the deferred demand: in 2022, most developers slowed down the withdrawal of new projects, and in 2023-2024 there was a boom in starts. Accordingly, the need for materials has increased.
— We expect the greatest difficulties with the insulation — with aerated concrete and a groove—stone slab, – the expert added. — We understand that pent-up demand has accumulated in 2022, as many players slowed down new construction projects, and in 2023 the market began to slowly wake up, and all this mass of demand for materials has now intensified. Also, additional demand is created by regional developers, whose active entry into our market we are currently observing.
According to Elena Lelikova Prices for the most in-demand items increased most noticeably: gas blocks have almost doubled in price over the past four years, thermal insulation has risen in price by almost 2.5 times, rebar — by 50%, concrete — by 44%. This summer, the trend continued — during the high season, the price increase for the main items will be 15%.
— We are recording an increase in prices in almost all positions, — Vitaly Ershov added, — including reinforcement, concrete, and thermal insulation materials are becoming more expensive. All of the above are always in the highest demand on the market, along with bricks and finishing materials.
Faster than housing
In general, the cost of housing grew much more slowly than the cost of building materials, Elena Lelikova noted. Over the same last four years, apartments in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region have increased in price by only 9% and 2.7%, respectively. In Moscow, including New Moscow, by 40%, which is much more noticeable, but still incomparable with the growth rate of prices for building materials.
— In order to reduce this inflationary effect, which affects the price per square meter, we always carefully evaluate the offers of various manufacturers, consider alternative options that are not inferior in quality and appearance, — continued Vitaly Ershov.
— The growth of materials undoubtedly affects the cost per square meter, — Tatyana Rybkina added.— However, thanks to our resources, we manage to replace some materials with others and balance them within the cost limits that we set for the first half of the year, taking into account the rise in price. GloraX has its own tender site, where we select suppliers. In addition, in addition to the procurement department itself, we have created a regional procurement department — together these departments monitor the local production market, go to factories to familiarize themselves with materials and attract potential suppliers to participate in tenders. Large volumes and wide coverage of partners allow us to quickly find alternatives if necessary. Thus, it is possible not only to stay within the indicators laid down in the plan, but also to maintain the set quality level.
There are still irreplaceable ones
According to experts, some domestic analogues of the departed imported brands can be called a successful replacement.
— For example, equipment for water supply systems, — says Vitaly Ershov. — We have been using pipelines, shut-off valves, and heat exchange equipment of domestic production for many years.
— We use only Russian materials for the so—called general construction, — Tatyana Rybkina continued.Engineering and electronics cause some difficulties. But there are adequate replacements here too: for example, we have started purchasing elevator equipment from domestic and Chinese manufacturers and are satisfied with their consumer properties. Unfortunately, there are groups of products that are manufactured in Russia, but still need to be improved, such as engineering, low-current systems and video surveillance systems. Pumping equipment is currently being assembled in Russia, but all the same its components come from abroad, and only large-scale assembly is carried out on site. Also, so far a lot of shut-off valves have to be ordered from China. There is a small production in Russia, but the quality, unfortunately, does not yet reach the desired level. On the plus side, Russia has already begun to produce high—quality and interesting lines of finishing materials and sanitary ware.
Support against the background of adaptation
Elena LelikovaShe stressed that the ability of developers to adapt to rising prices for building materials has significantly decreased with the reduction of mortgage programs with state support. It not only fueled the demand for housing, but also gave construction companies the opportunity to take on an additional financial burden. And its significant reduction will reduce the demand for housing, and at the same time the ability of developers to contain prices for it.
“Unfortunately, at the same time, developers cannot stock up on building materials for the future,” she says. — Theoretically, of course, this is possible, but only in case of prepayment of supplies. And the market will no longer allow this, especially in conditions of reduced demand for housing. So during the implementation of the development project, we will be even more significantly dependent on the price environment. In such circumstances, it would be logical for banks, especially the largest ones, to offer the construction market mechanisms for hedging the cost of building materials, coupled with escrow loans. Moreover, this is critically important for the construction of social facilities, which developers build as part of credit lines for residential buildings, and then transfer to the municipal balance sheet.
According to her, this is because metal structures are actively used in the construction of modern schools, namely, their prices differ in almost the highest level of volatility. Therefore, it would be advisable to at least fix the cost of metal for two to three years in advance from the moment of the beginning of the design of the social object and the evaluation of the selected solutions.
Innovations and technologies would help to save and optimize costs for the entire construction process as a whole, Vitaly Ershov believes. In his opinion, it is necessary to develop the use of digital technologies in the field of quality control, production and logistics, just as it is happening now in construction.
“For example, we are implementing BIM technologies at all levels of project preparation and implementation, which allows us to obtain better working documentation, reduce the time of its delivery to the construction site and reduce the number of edits,” he says. — In addition to digital technologies, special attention is paid to “lean manufacturing” technologies, within the framework of which a program has been developed and the first training on the production of tile works based on Setl Group standards has been conducted. This reduces errors in the performance of work, and the result of training will be an increase in labor productivity, reducing the time of operations at construction sites several times. In general, it is innovation and novelty that should represent an exit to higher labor productivity. It is also important for us that the environmental impact during the construction, manufacture and transportation of building materials is minimal. Reducing the carbon footprint can be achieved through the use of products from local suppliers and the abandonment of long-distance transportation.
— We really need the support of the state, in particular, our antimonopoly services, — says Tatyana Rybkina. — Because very often the cost of materials unreasonably soars due to seasonal growth or monopolization of manufacturers. Of course, this situation requires participation and regulation from the outside, as it affects the entire market as a whole.
The expert predicted: perhaps by the end of the year, after the passage of seasonal growth, there will be a slight decline in prices for masonry materials, which unreasonably soared in six months — by almost a quarter. But it is not worth waiting for a reduction in the price of insulation and fittings, since demand in the market remains high anyway.
Photo: iStockphoto.com
Источник: www.fontanka.ru
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