By the end of July 2024, the share of housing loans in the total lending structure decreased to 21%. A month earlier, this figure was 42%
In July 2024, Russians issued 5.91 million loans in banks totaling 1.42 trillion rubles. The share of mortgages in total loans was 21%, which is two times less than in June, when mortgages took 42% of all loans. This follows from the analytical study of the United Credit Bureau (OKB), which the editorial office has.
According to the OKB, in July, Russians issued 76.44 thousand housing loans for 292 billion rubles, whereas in June — 175.76 thousand for 834.88 billion rubles.
After such a significant reduction in the share of mortgages in the total mass of loans issued, cash loans became the leader in disbursements, accounting for 41% (in June — 31%). The share of credit cards was 22%, car loans — 14%, POS loans (a type of consumer credit issued directly at retail outlets) — 3%, the study clarifies.
In just seven months of 2024, 41.33 million loans totaling 10.58 trillion rubles were issued in Russia, of which 3.26 trillion rubles (31%) accounted for mortgages. Compared with January — July last year, the volume of mortgage issuance in monetary terms decreased by 15.5%, and in the total lending structure — by 9 percentage points.
The largest share in the total amount of loans since the beginning of the year has been for cash loans — 37%, credit cards — 18%, car loans — 11%, and POS loans – 3%, the study says.
The decline in demand for mortgages is also confirmed by the experts interviewed by the editorial board. Against this background, developers are considering various options to stimulate demand. “The main work will be carried out around the development of new tools and forms of payment, which, on the one hand, will become more accessible to potential buyers, and on the other hand, will allow developers to adhere to the financial model of projects,” says Dmitry Efimov, Deputy Commercial Director of PIONEER.
Nadezhda Stadnyuk, head of the mortgage department at Best-Novostroy, notes that most of the developers in the current conditions offer subsidized mortgage programs. “A reduced rate of about 8% — as under the state support program closed from July 1 — is offered for short periods, from one year to five years. These conditions may be of interest to buyers who expect to refinance their mortgage in two or three years, the expert says. — Also, with the help of subsidies, you can reduce the rate for the entire period, but in this case it will be higher.” Nadezhda Stadnyuk emphasizes that such programs do not allow developers to reach the sales level of previous periods. “The subsidy scheme implies either an increase in the price of the object (by 10-20%), or the cancellation of the discount,” the expert explains. — With the rise in price, the initial payment also increases, which may cause the buyer to abandon the subsidized scheme.”
According to the capital’s Rosreestr, in July 2024 in Moscow, the total number of housing loans issued (for secondary housing and new buildings) exceeded the figures for all previous months of 2024. During the month, almost 12 thousand mortgage loans were registered. At the same time, the department noted that in part these were registrations of those loans that were approved back in June — before the cancellation of preferential mortgages, changes in the terms of family mortgages and an increase in rates under market programs.
Against the background of high market rates, the cancellation of the state mortgage program for new buildings and changes in the conditions of family and IT mortgages, the demand for housing loans in Russia has significantly decreased. Thus, according to analysts of Domklik, against the background of an increase in the targeting of state programs, their share in mortgage loans from Sberbank decreased by 42 percentage points over the month and amounted to 34%. The share of the secondary market in which state programs did not operate increased from 31% to 70%.
Data from analysts “Dom.The Russian Federation” indicates that changes in mortgage lending conditions had the strongest impact on the segment of individual housing loans (IHS): in a month, the number of loans issued for new buildings decreased three times (to 31.9 thousand in July), for the construction of private houses — by 6.25 times (to 4 thousand). Read more about why the private housing market has suffered more than new buildings in the material “RBC Real Estate”.
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