In 20 of the 34 largest cities in the country included in the recent study “CYANOGEN.Analysts”, primary markets turned out to be less monopolized than a year ago. Experts call this a favorable factor
In the first half of 2024, in the largest cities of Russia (in other words, in the most developed real estate markets of the country), the degree of monopolization of the segment of new buildings amounted to 65%. That is, on average, the five leading developers of the city accounted for 65% of initial transactions. This is the conclusion reached by the experts of the CIAN division.Analytics”*, who studied the markets of 34 Russian cities with a population of 500 thousand or more (in the 35th city, Makhachkala, in 2024, less than 10 deals were concluded in new buildings from one developer, so the capital of Dagestan was not taken into account in the calculations).
Here are a few details of the study. In eight cities out of 34 analyzed, the top 5 largest developers accounted for less than half of the initial transactions, meaning the market in these cities is highly diversified. Moreover, the specified eight included both millionaires (Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Krasnoyarsk and Ufa) and cities with a rapidly growing segment of real estate (Tyumen, Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and Yaroslavl).
In most cities, the top 5 leaders accounted for between 50% and 80% of the market. By the way, the distribution within the group is fairly uniform: in seven cases the share is 50-60%, in five — 60-70%, in six — 70-80%. In three more cities — Novokuznetsk, Saratov and Sevastopol — monopolization is above 90%. And in Novokuznetsk in 2024, only three developers had sales, so calculations give one hundred percent monopolization of the market.
“In general, the fewer developers who sell, the more monopolized the markets are. However, there are exceptions to this rule. For example, in Moscow, five leading developers account for 57% of the market, which is more than in 12 cities. At the same time, in 2024, about 100 developers were selling — there is no such great competition in any other city. Such a high degree of monopolization in the capital is primarily due to the dominance of the three largest developers (PIK Group, Aeroplane Group and A101 Group), which account for almost half of the entire market,” CIAN experts note.Analysts”.
Compared to the first half of 2023, the share of the top five developers in most cities has decreased, so the average fell by two percentage points. However, there is still no need to talk about a single trend. In 20 of the 34 cities studied, the monopolization of the market has really gone into negative territory, especially in Tomsk, Nizhny Novgorod and Krasnoyarsk. But in Yaroslavl, Ufa, Tyumen, Perm, Irkutsk, in general, in 10 cities (mainly with medium and low levels of monopolization), the indicator increased, and in four (Stavropol, Yekaterinburg, Novokuznetsk and Novosibirsk) it did not change in any way compared to last year.
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“In most large cities of the Russian Federation, the level of monopolization in the segment of new buildings is not critical for the market. In addition, calculations show that over the past year, the indicator in many locations has decreased slightly. One of the reasons for this dynamic is the successful sales of the second quarter: usually during periods of high demand, the level of monopolization decreases, and in periods with small sales volumes, on the contrary, increases, since large players are more resistant to crises (buyers opt for more well—known companies). A decrease in the level of monopolization is a favorable factor, since low competition is no less dangerous for the market than a decline in sales, “overstocking” or lengthening the deadlines for the completion of facilities,” the expert believes.Analysts” Elena Lapshina.
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