Nabiullina gave a forecast for mortgages after the key rate increase

The head of the Central Bank predicted an increase in mortgage issuance in 2024 by 7-12%, even despite the increase in the key rate to 18%

In 2024, the increase in the volume of mortgage loans issued in Russia will be at the level of 7-12%, according to the regulator’s medium-term forecast. Citizens will continue to buy housing, but at a more moderate pace, head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference.

The same figures are given in the medium-term forecast of the market regulator. According to the Central Bank’s assessment, in 2025, the increase in mortgage loans will be at the level of 8-13%, and in 2026 and 2027 — 10-15%.

The head of the Central Bank also said that in July there was a decrease in demand for mortgage loans. At the same time, in June there was a peak in applications for preferential mortgages, as borrowers were waiting for the expiration of its validity and were in a hurry to jump into the last car.

“In fact, the first two weeks of July were a pause, since the parameters of the family mortgage were not approved, so the data for June with overestimated rates and for July with underestimated rates of loans are not indicative,” Elvira Nabiullina said.

Last year, the head of the Central Bank already spoke about signs of overheating in the mortgage market and was concerned about the price gap between primary and secondary housing, which reached 50%. According to Nabiullina, the most important thing for the population is not the availability of mortgages and the attractiveness of low rates, but the availability of housing.

In May of this year, the Central Bank drew attention to the fact that the difference between prices in the primary and secondary housing markets is not decreasing due to the outstripping growth in prices for new buildings. And in some regions, for example in the Moscow region, this difference exceeds 60%. Such a price gap between secondary and primary housing is a sign of an imbalance that has begun to grow against the background of preferential mortgages.

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