Russians believe that apartments will finally become cheaper in winter, and many believe that prices will drop by more than 5%. But not all analysts agree with such forecasts.
Another rapid measurement of consumer sentiment conducted by the analytical center IRN.ru In early December*, it shows that Russians are seriously determined to finally see a price drop in the residential market. 71.2% of respondents said they believe in a reduction in the cost of apartments this winter. This is slightly more than three months ago: compared to September, the share of supporters of falling prices increased by 2.4 percentage points.
At the same time, 39.4% believe that prices will drop by more than 5%. Another 31.8% are of the opinion that housing may fall in price within 5%. For comparison, three months ago, 43.7% of respondents believed in a significant drop in prices (-7.9 percentage points), and 25.1% (+6.7 percentage points) believed in a decrease in the cost of housing within 5%. Another 18.6% of respondents believe that the cost of housing in the coming winter will remain at the current level, which is about the same as three months ago (in early autumn, 19.5% believed in price stagnation).
An increase in the cost of apartments in the next three months is predicted by 10.2% of online voting participants, which is 1.5 percentage points less than in early September. Moreover, today the majority of those who vote for a price increase expect a relatively small increase in prices — within 5% (6.9%). Only 3.3% believe that housing can rise in price more significantly.
In general, as noted in IRN.ru Today’s consumer sentiment is very similar to what prevailed at the end of 2023. At that time, 70% of respondents believed in lower prices, 14.9% expected growth, and another 15.2% predicted stagnation.
“In 2024, apartment prices in Moscow stagnated, but the reduced demand continues to put pressure on the cost of a meter, and people understand this. Today, apartment prices (both in the primary and secondary markets) remain inflated, and four apartment prices will have to be overpaid for a mortgage at current rates over 20 years. Therefore, the demand for housing is falling, which is starting to push prices down — the cost of secondary apartments in the mass segments is already showing a minus. A more pronounced trend towards lower prices may take shape in 2025,” the head of the Real Estate Market Indicators analytical center does not rule out. IRN.ru ” Oleg Repchenko.
However, not everyone agrees with this forecast. In particular, summing up the results of 2024 and betting on 2025, the head of the CIAN division.Analytics” Alexey Popov noted that the secondary market will record stagnation rather than a decrease in prices, and even a slight increase in the new building market.
“We do not expect a repeat of the price and rate indexation records in 2025. We predict their nominal growth in new buildings (by 6-8%), as it is difficult for developers to rewrite price tags without bank approval, in short-term rentals (by 13-14%, due to the continued growth of the domestic tourism market) and in long-term rentals (by 15-17%, within the framework of increasingly pronounced seasonal trends). Near-zero figures for price dynamics combined with declines in certain months are most likely in the secondary market (where owners will have to adjust more actively to reduced demand) and in suburban real estate (where factors such as declining demand and rising construction inflation balance each other),” CIAN experts say.Analysts”*.
Photo: Mikhail Sinitsyn/TASS
Inkom-Real Estate, which also shared its forecasts for 2025*, recalled that prices, supply and demand, and the housing market as a whole will be seriously affected by the new mortgage standard approved by the Committee on Standards of Credit Institutions and agreed with the Bank of Russia. It comes into force at the beginning of the year, and thanks to it, mortgages with a subsidized rate from the developer, as well as loans with a letter of credit and cashback, will be banned.
“On the one hand, this standard will open the eyes of those who make impulsive and emotional purchases, often without fully understanding what they are doing. For example, when responding to a call to buy an apartment and pay only 1%, these people are guided by today’s comfortable payment of 40 thousand rubles per month, not realizing that in two years the amount will grow to 250 thousand rubles, and their solvency may not increase. But at the same time, the standard will remove from the market those buyers who were ready for such schemes and had their own plans for them, for example, it is profitable for them to pay a small amount for a while, hoping to get out of bank deposits or sell some real estate in two years,” emphasizes the director of the directionNew buildings” of Incom-real Estate company Valery Kochetkov.
In any case, in 2025, developers and banks, sellers and buyers will adapt to new realities, the expert thinks. They will buy only when necessary and only for themselves. The purchase of two or three apartments for future use will cease. The share of alternative transactions with a minimum additional payment of mortgage funds in the amount of no more than 2-3 million rubles will increase. This will be the market until the key rate starts to decrease.
“Now huge amounts are in bank deposits. As soon as the key rate stabilizes, that is, it will not change for two consecutive meetings, this will be a sign of its prospective reduction. If the income on deposits decreases, people will start leaving them and investing funds — in real estate, somewhere else, to distribute into different “baskets”. And this is a time bomb: a huge number of people with “live money” will come to the real estate market, which will provoke a surge in demand and, as a result, an increase in prices,” Valery Kochetkov believes.
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Maybe so. But so far, as evidenced by the results of the express measurement IRN.ru Only 12.6% of respondents have at least theoretical intentions to purchase real estate within the next three months. 87.4% of the survey participants firmly stated that they are not planning to buy a home yet.
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