Peak June, failed July and even more negative August are the expected nationwide sales results in the primary residential market. However, by the end of the summer, not only individual projects began to grow, but also entire cities
No one even doubted that in July and August, sales statistics in the new building market would be a failure compared to May-June (because, as has been told many, many times, the preferential mortgage with state support ended, the conditions for family mortgages changed, and even the approval of preferential loans under existing programs by banks temporarily suspended until the limits were extended). Therefore, in the data of the online service “Pulse of sales of new buildings”, which provided BFM.ru The partners of the platform are Yandex Real Estate specialists, and another thing draws special attention to themselves: the conclusion is that by the end of summer, not only sales in individual projects began to gain strength, but also, in principle, the market of a number of large cities of the country began to recover.
According to the estimates of the online service, in comparison with the peak June, in which everyone tried to jump into the last car of the outgoing “old-regime” mortgage train, in July the decrease in the volume of transactions in the primary market was very noticeable: more than 45% on average in all cities with millions, from 37.3 thousand to 20 thousand registered DDU. In August, the decline continued: on average, for millionaires, the number of registered IDUs decreased by another 20% compared to July, to 16.3 thousand; Krasnoyarsk (-57%), Krasnodar (-37%) and Voronezh (-34%) went into the most serious minus.
“In early September, the activity of transaction registrations in the Federal Register remains at the level of August or slightly higher, August was probably the local minimum in terms of the number of contracts concluded. But in a number of projects, we are seeing a multiple increase in the number of transactions relative to July: this indicates that the market is adapting to new conditions,” says Artem Advisers, CEO of the Pulse of New Building Sales online service.
Moreover, there are not only projects, but also cities where the volume of transactions has begun to partially recover. In Omsk, the number of registered DDoS increased by 66% relative to July (however, it is important to note that there is a small base of new buildings in the city, there are not many new projects, so even a dozen or two transactions have a significant impact on the overall picture as a percentage). In Rostov-on-Don, the growth was 21%, in Novosibirsk 10%, in Samara 9% (although there is a small base of new buildings here), in Ufa 5%, in Nizhny Novgorod 4%.
“It is noteworthy that in almost all cities that demonstrated the restoration of the volume of DDT, the supply base also increased significantly. According to our data, in Omsk and Ufa in August there were twice as many ads for the sale of real estate under construction as in July, in Samara there were one and a half times more ads, in Nizhny Novgorod the growth was 13.4%, and in Novosibirsk 7.3%. We observe how developers across the country are testing different scenarios of behavior, and we note that dynamic response in a number of regions has helped to overcome the first month of “negative” demand more successfully, because in July, June transactions approved under the old conditions were still registered,” explains Yevgeny Belokurov, commercial director of Yandex Real Estate.
On average, 74 thousand DDU were registered in the largest Russian cities in the summer of 2024, which is 18% less than in the same period last year, when 89.6 thousand contracts were signed, analysts at Pulse of New Building Sales and Yandex Real Estate summarize.
As for Moscow and its primary transactions, for example, according to estimates by Metrium*, based on data from the capital’s Rosreestr, in August, 1.7 thousand DDU were concluded in the segment of mass demand housing (-9.6% per month, +2.4% in six months -55.8% per year). In total, in the Moscow region, according to the calculations of the platform’s analysts bnMAP.pro *, in August, 8,109 lots were recorded in transactions on the primary market — this is 25% less than in July 2024.
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The maximum drop was noted in New Moscow (-45% by July), in the Moscow region the decrease was 25%, in the old borders of Moscow — 13%. Moreover, as the experts of the platform emphasize, “data on the date of registration contain, among other things, the registration of July contracts. With the final calculations by the date of the agreement for August, the decrease in volumes is likely to be even more pronounced.”
St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region are also moving downwards: in general, in August, the region recorded a 38 percent drop in the number of lots in transactions compared to July. Moreover, unlike Moscow and the Moscow region, the Northern Capital (-37%) and its surroundings (-38%) still maintain parity, pay attention to bnMAP.pro .
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