There is nothing unexpected in the fact that in June (the last month of the preferential mortgage on new buildings), the largest share in the total amount of loans issued to Russians belonged to mortgages. And in July, everything collapsed, and again nothing unexpected
The United Credit Bureau (OKB) summed up the results of the credit activity of Russians from January to June 2024*. According to estimates, in the first half of the year, Russian citizens concluded 34.98 million contracts worth 11.33 trillion rubles in all lending segments.
Compared to the second half of 2023, the number of loans fell by 4%, and the volume remained virtually unchanged (from July to December last year, 36.4 million loans worth 11.32 trillion rubles were issued). But in annual terms, the volume of loans increased by 27%, the number — by 7% (in the first half of last year, banks issued 32.61 million loans worth 8.9 trillion rubles).
If you are puzzled by a quarterly comparison, the picture turns out to be the following. In the second quarter of this year, 18.3 million loans worth 7.53 trillion rubles were issued. Compared to the previous, first quarter, the number of loans increased by 10%, but the volume increased by a crazy 98%, OKB experts note: after all, from January to March this year, 16.68 million loans were issued, all for 3.81 trillion rubles. At the same time, compared with the results of the second quarter of last year, the number of loans increased by 4%, and the volume by 49%: then from April to June, 17.67 thousand loans worth 5.06 trillion rubles were issued.
Now, as for June specifically. According to OKB statistics, in the first month of the summer of 2024, Russians issued 6.07 million loans in banks totaling 3.15 trillion rubles. Compared with May of this year, the number of loans decreased by 3%, while the volume increased by 11%: May figures — 6.25 million loans worth 2.82 trillion rubles. On an annual basis, the total number of loans increased by 1%, and the volume by 79%: in June 2023, Russians issued 6.03 million loans worth 1.75 trillion rubles. Finally, the average loan amount for the month increased by 15%, from 452 thousand to 519 thousand rubles, and the annual increase in this indicator was 78%.
There is nothing particularly surprising in the fact that in June the largest share of the total amount of loans issued (42%) was taken by mortgages. The share of cash loans in second place is 33%, followed by credit cards — 15%, car loans — 9% and POS loans with a traditional share of 2%. Mortgages and cash loans traditionally compete for the first or second place in this kind of rating, and usually mortgages lost: For example, this May, cash had 37%, mortgages had 33%, in the second quarter of 2024, the segment shares were equal — 36% each, but in the first quarter, cash beat mortgages with a score of 39:28.
Further, most likely, this gap will seriously increase and will remain so for at least several months. “The industry will have to go through a period of adaptation to new conditions. It is very difficult to say how long it will last. The development market has already experienced serious changes, including an increase in the rate and a sharp change in foreign economic conditions. At that time, three to four months were enough for adaptation. But then government support systems were in place. Now the challenge for the market is much more serious,” Anna Sokolova, Commercial Director of OM Development, is sure.
“With an increase in the key rate to 18%, the base mortgage rates will amount to 22-23%, and the demand for market mortgages will decrease to near-zero values. A scenario is possible when demand will decrease to 50% due to low mortgage availability,” said Rustam Azizov, Director of Mortgage Sales and Implementation of Financial Instruments at A101 Group of Companies.
As for Moscow, according to the capital’s Rosreestr*, 9,885 housing mortgage loan agreements were registered in the city this June. This figure is 24.7% less than the result of last year (13,123) and 45.1% more than the result of June 2022 (6,812). But there is an important nuance in the calculations of the Federal Register.
“Statistics reflect data taking into account mortgage transactions in both the primary and secondary markets of the capital’s real estate. In this case, the decrease in the indicator in the first half of the year was influenced by the secondary segment, where the number of registrations of rights transfers decreased. Semi-annual statistics also show that an average of 9.6 thousand mortgages are issued per month. The June indicator corresponds to this value and exceeds it by about 2.6%,” explains Igor Maidanov, head of the Rosreestr Department for Moscow.
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And yet: according to Vladimir Efimov, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Urban Planning and Construction, “in June 2024, Moscow retained its leading position among Russian regions in terms of preferential mortgage loans issued: their volume amounted to 117.9 billion rubles, which is 18% of the total Russian volume of preferential mortgage loans. In total, loans in the amount of 2.5 trillion rubles have been issued in the capital for the entire duration of the programs.” Alas, after the abolition of preferential mortgages and the revision of the rules for issuing family mortgages, Moscow is unlikely to be able to maintain its leadership.
And in general, the market players were right in their assessment of the situation. According to CIAN magazine with reference to Frank Media, according to the results of the first two weeks of July, the volume of mortgages issued decreased by 46.4% compared to the same period in June: only 156.54 billion mortgage rubles were issued in 14 days. The number of housing loans has also halved: from 67 thousand to 36.2 thousand. The only thing that has hardly changed is the average loan size: according to analysts at Frank RG, in June it was 4.35 million rubles, in July it turned out to be 4.32 million rubles.
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